Are we at the edge of another pandemic? H5N1

Post Reply New Topic

On 27 June 2024, 9:49 A.M., I summarized the approach to survive a very deadly disease called H5N1 Avian Flu, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza. I have covered a lot of information over the past several weeks on the next potential pandemic called H5N1. I have come to realize this pandemic will primarily be transmitted by insects, primarily Mosquitoes. Mosquitoes infect humans with a blood to blood transfer between infected to uninfected birds/animals/humans.

There’s a saying that those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

H5N1 has spread across many types of birds dealing wave after wave of deaths. In the last few years, it has infected over 500 different species of birds, driving some to near extinction. This virus has established its presence in 108 countries, across five continents. It even transitioned to chickens. But it is on the move and has impacted many types of animals, most recently dairy cattle. It has spread to 70 mammal species globally. It is in our homes (cats and mice). It is on the move and another species is contracting this threat. It is beginning to show up in Pigs as a very deadly Swine Flu. -- Pigs are a "mixing vessels" for influenza viruses, specifically those infecting birds, humans, and other pigs. If H5N1 were to become endemic in U.S. pigs, then those viruses could undergo genetic reassortment, creating entirely novel strains, very deadly human strains.

This virus has been evolving over the past few years. It began with birds and spread to animals and humans. The disease is passing across a maze of viruses in recent years including H5N1, H5N2, H5N3, H5N5, H5N6 and H5N8. But in my opinion the primary threat is H1N1.

H1N1 decimated the human population during the First World War. It went by many names including the Spanish Flu which killed between 50 and 100 million people during the period from 1918-1919. This plague went by many names. The Americans fell ill with "three-day fever" or "purple death." The French caught "purulent bronchitis." The Italians suffered "sand fly fever." German hospitals filled with victims of Blitzkatarrh or "Flanders fever. Sand fly fever is an arthropod-borne viral disease, also known as “Phlebotomus fever”, “mosquito fever”.

From 1918 to 1919, the Spanish flu infected an estimated 500 million people globally. This amounted to about 33% of the world's population at the time. In addition, the Spanish flu killed about 50 million people, about 6 percent of the Earth's population. Since the world population has grown around 5 times in the last 100 years. The threat might impact 2.5 billion people should it materialize today.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVpBFy_TRtA

How were the victims of H1N1 treated in front line hospitals during 1918/1919? No matter what they called it, the virus attacked everyone similarly. It started like any other influenza case, with a sore throat, chills and fever. Then came the deadly twist: the virus ravaged its victim's lungs. Sometimes within hours, patients succumbed to complete respiratory failure. Autopsies showed hard, red lungs drenched in fluid. A microscopic look at diseased lung tissue revealed that the alveoli, the lungs' normally air-filled cells, were so full of fluid that victims literally drowned. The slow suffocation began when patients presented with a unique symptom: mahogany spots over their cheekbones. Within hours these patients turned a bluish-black hue indicative of cyanosis, or lack of oxygen. When triaging scores of new patients, nurses often looked at the patients' feet first. Those with black feet were considered beyond help and were carted off to die.

In my humble opinion, these diseases are transmitted by insects. An insect bites an infected bird/animal/human and then transmitted the blood directly to another bird/ animal/human. The following is a good approach to limiting the spread in humans.

1. You can protect yourself from mosquito bites in two ways. If you spend a lot of time outdoors you can create protective clothing (boots, clothing and camping gear) that repel mosquitoes by treating them with Permethrin.

2. You can also protect yourself from mosquito bites by applying mosquito repellent on you skin. This will provide short protection (several hours) to drive away mosquitoes. There are a variety of products available. They include DEET, Picaridin, IR3535, Oil of lemon, Para-menthane-diol eucalyptus, and 2-Undecanone.

3. Another product that can help prevent mosquito bites is Metofluthrin. Metofluthrin is a pyrethroid used as an insect repellent. The vapors of metofluthrin are highly effective and capable of repelling up to 97% of mosquitoes in field tests. Metofluthrin is used in a variety of consumer products, called emanators, for indoor and outdoor use. These products produce a vapor that protects an individual or area. Effectiveness is reduced by air movement. Metofluthrin is neurotoxic, and is not meant to be applied directly to human skin.

4. Accidents can happen. What to do immediately after being bitten by a mosquito? Treat the bite with Tecnu Topical Analgesic Anti-Itch Spray (Diphenhydramine HCl 2% ). There is another product that can diminish the effects of being bitten by an infected insect. It is called ChiggereX. This product contains 10% Benzocaine.

5. If you become infected with H5N1 treat the condition immediately using one of four FDA-approved antivirals for influenza: (1) Oseltamivir phosphate (Tamiflu), (2) Zanamivir (Relenza), (3) Peramivir (Rapivab), (4) Baloxavir (Xofluza). These are prescription drugs and will require a doctors prescription. Time is of the essence here. This condition will begin to destroy the human body and make it impossible to treat within a few days. Time is of the essence.

6. Some people are very vulnerable to mosquito bites. These are people with open wounds. Just covering the wounded area with bandages will not protect you. Mosquitoes can smell your blood and you become a prime target. I suffered a small bleed and was attacked by around 50 mosquitoes in less then two hours outdoors. (Luckily I had protected myself with DEET before I went outside and as a result, NOT ONE MOSQUITO WAS ABLE TO BITE ME.) This may also be a problem for women who are going through their menstrual period.

7. Go on the offensive. Wage a war on mosquitoes. In general, mosquitoes live in a hot humid environment. They most commonly infest Ponds, Marshes, Swamps, and Other wetland habitats. So minimize their breeding grounds. Wage war on mosquitoes.

8. Use our friends. What, you didn't realize we have allies in our war on Mosquitoes? We have many friends. Some are birds like woodpeckers, some are other insects like dragonflies, some are fish like gambusia affinis.

9. Wastewater tracking of H5N1 can identify the specific regions in the U.S. where the outbreak is underway. One of these regions is San Francisco, California. This area could be Ground Zero of the outbreak. But we cannot monitor the threat because the funding for Wastewater tracking has been halted. But time has been wasted and H5N1 is on the move and Central Valley in California is in the epicenter.

In the historic past, migrating birds were the long distance transport agents of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1. Seasonally they would move the infectious disease between the northern and southern hemispheres as the seasons changed from summer to winter. But now as humans have developed means of rapid transport, such as jet aircraft, the speed and distance this virus can spread is rapidly accelerated.

I was able to eliminate aggressive tiger mosquitoes by leaving some water in my watering can as a trap.
It takes a week for the eggs to emerge as adults and I water much more often than that. I'd make sure to empty the can every time I watered.

Some more data is coming to light.

Since 1996, HPAI H5N1 influenza viruses have circulated in at least 23 countries. In late 2021, HPAI H5N1 spread from Europe to North America causing sporadic infections among wild birds and poultry farms. In 2022, the virus spread to South America where it devastated birds and marine mammals. In March 2024, USDA scientists identified HPAI H5N1 in U.S. dairy cows, and it subsequently reached herds in 16 states. The virus has been detected in dairy herds in three states over the past 30 days, according to USDA/APHIS. In 2024, the virus has caused 66 confirmed and 7 probable cases of influenza in people in the U.S. and one case in Canada. These human cases have been caused by either the H5N1 type circulating in birds (D1.1) or the type circulating in dairy cows (B3.13).

Source: NIH Officials Assess Threat of H5N1

An update about the individual in Canada who suffered a severe case of H5N1.

A 13-year-old Canadian girl recovered after being hospitalized in critical condition with H5N1 avian influenza, researchers reported.

The girl was hospitalized on Nov. 7 and transferred to BC Children's Hospital the next day, where she was intubated and put on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) and treated with three different antivirals, David Goldfarb, MD, of BC Children's Hospital in Vancouver, and colleagues reported in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM).

The girl had a history of asthma and a body mass index greater than 35. She first presented to an emergency department in British Columbia on Nov. 4 with a 2-day history of conjunctivitis in both eyes and a 1-day history of fever. She was discharged without treatment, but then she developed a cough, vomiting, and diarrhea.

She went back to the ED on Nov. 7 with respiratory distress with hemodynamic instability, Goldfarb's group reported. The next day, she was transferred to the pediatric ICU at BC Children's while on bilevel positive airway pressure. She had respiratory failure, pneumonia in the left lower lobe, acute kidney injury, thrombocytopenia, and leukopenia.

Her doctors started oseltamivir (Tamiflu) on Nov. 8, but with signs of respiratory deterioration and chest radiographs consistent with progression to acute respiratory distress syndrome, she was intubated and started on ECMO (Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation) on Nov. 9, with continuous renal replacement starting the day after that.

Physicians added amantadine (Gocovri) on Nov. 9, and baloxavir (Xofluza) on Nov. 11. She received daily plasma exchange for 3 days starting Nov. 14.

Over the next days, her respiratory status improved, and she was able to discontinue ECMO on Nov. 22, with extubation on Nov. 28. The authors didn't provide additional details on her discharge or recovery.

As for testing, the girl's first swab at BC Children's was positive for influenza A but negative for H1 or H3 disease. Further polymerase chain reaction testing for flu, COVID, and respiratory syncytial virus showed a cycle threshold (Ct) value of 27.1, suggesting a relatively high viral load, which prompted further subtyping, revealing H5 disease.

The researchers added that lower respiratory specimens consistently yielded lower Ct values than upper respiratory specimens, suggesting higher viral loads in the lower respiratory tract.

Source: Canadian Teen Recovers From Severe H5N1 Bird Flu Infection

Analysis has shown H5N1 is a virus that can cause extremely high mortality rates (50 percent) in humans. But the deadly form kills people in two stages. The first stage is similar to a common cold. But within a week or two this virus produces a very dramatic internal change in humans and death is at the door step. Some scientist are trying to develop a quick means of identifying this strain of H5N1. I came across an article today that might provide a quick assessment tool.

ARUP Offers New Assay To Detect Influenza A (H5) Virus

ARUP Laboratories (a nonprofit enterprise of the University of Utah and its Department of Pathology) today launched a new assay for the detection and subtyping of influenza A (H5) virus. This test will aid in the evaluation of individuals who may have been exposed to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A virus, also known as H5N1 or bird flu.

ARUP’s laboratory-developed test, Influenza A (H5) Virus by Qualitative NAAT (ARUP test number 3018970), has been validated in collaboration with the CDC. In September 2024, ARUP was selected as one of the CDC’s five formal lab partners in the development of a test for avian influenza A (H5), or bird flu.

A Nucleic Acid Amplification Test, or NAAT, is a type of viral diagnostic test. NAATs detect genetic material (nucleic acids), specifically identify the RNA (ribonucleic acid) sequences that comprise the genetic material of the virus.

China Faces New Virus Outbreak Five Years After Covid Crisis

Thus far there has been two cases of a very deadly form of H5N1 in North America. One occurred in a 13 year old girl in Canada and the other in the U.S. in a 65 year old man in Louisiana. The individual in the U.S. has just died.



But this article misses a very important point, an extremely important point. They said, "its getting more adaptable, but still to emphasize very low risk, because we still have no cases of human-to-human transmission."

But they are missing a very critical point. You do not need human-to-human transmission in order for this virus to produce a massive pandemic. This virus is passed from infected birds/mammals/humans to uninfected humans by insects, primarily mosquitoes. These insects drink the blood from an infected creature and then pass the infected blood directly to an uninfected human. It is a direct blood-to-blood transfer.