Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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That's what I am seeing too. And the mortality rate for cardiovascular disease in Italy is much higher than C19. I don't want to downplay the severity of C19 in Italy, but at the same I can't help but acknowledge that it is not the number one killer in Italy like cardiovascular disease is. It may not even be on the top ten list.

Someone here also reported seeing this very thing happening somewhere else. (I don't know Chinese and so don't know what else she may be saying.)

W. B. Yeats @WBYeats1865
A Chinese woman proudly filmed herself buying huge amount of facemasks from multiple US supermarkets and loaded the masks onto her pickup truck.

"It feels so awesome to buy all the masks! I didn't leave a single mask for the Americans!"
#WuhanCoronavirus

https://twitter.com/WBYeats1865/status/ ... 7253255169

It seems increasingly likely that Covid19 is no more dangerous than a bad cold or bout of flu, ( *not* deadly in fact ), which means that it shouldn't even be on the official list of causes of death, anymore than the common cold, ( which isn't on the list even though it can increase death rate on certain hospital wards and in care homes by 3%-6% ).

Yes, for the usually vulnerable, the frail/ill old and immunodeficient, that does mean increased risk, as is the case with influenza, ( hence flu vaccines for the most vulnerable ), but it does not justify, anymore than the common cold or flu does, the extreme lock down measures currently being taken.

At the moment we are seeing principally the numbers of people *tested* and found to be *carrying* the new coronavirus.

That does not mean that these people are suffering from Covid19, ( the illness ) and in the case of the dead is not the same thing as saying that it was the cause of death, merely that the virus was present, and that it *may*, ( exactly like a bad cold or a bout of flu ), have been a contributory factor in their death from/actually caused by other previously existing or underlying illnesses.

The current levels of panic, about what is probably nothing more than a bad cold/flu type illness, are insane and are in several ways actively contributing to more deaths, ex. because health workers are off work in unusually large numbers for unusually long periods because of self-isolation rules, ... and because fear and isolation kill ( especially the old and frail/ill ).

And even those numbers are not as great as the media focus would have us believe, as the MOMO data/graphs that Darmok refers to make clear. If anything the numbers for Europe as a whole are somewhat lower than usual for this time of year, with the exception of Italy where are just slightly above average.

People should compare the actual mortality rates for all causes in hospitals in NYC and elsewhere during the last two weeks in March, 2019 and the last two weeks of March, 2020. And probably the first two weeks of April in 2019/2020, as well.

Are COVID19 deaths “replacing” other causes of deaths during this time; or would folks purportedly dying of COVID19 have died of these other causes even in the absence of COVID19?

I have a gut feeling that this should be considered, at least, as an alternative. Though I’m no expert in diseases or epidemics.

I might have to give Ouinon credit where credit is due.

However, there does seem to be a glut of hospital admissions at this time in 2020 over this time in 2019.

But the above should at least be considered, and then dismissed out of hand if found to be a bad premise.

Last edited by kraftiekortie on 31 Mar 2020, 3:30 am, edited 2 times in total.

Wut?

Cold/flu don’t cause lethal pneumonia. C-19 is different. Not apples to apples comparable. Your downplaying it's lethality is dangerous misinformation.

I worry about the small businesses that are likely to go under because of this.

In a very minute amount of cases, the regular flu, or rarely the common cold, could lead to pneumonia.

The rate of transition to pneumonia within C-19 appears to be higher.

This transition to pneumonia appears to be the heart of what causes hospital admissions and deaths, above and beyond what occurs during “regular” flu seasons.

Additionally, more relatively younger and (previously) healthy people, are experiencing increased hospitalizations and deaths based on COVID19, though the NYC deaths are preeminently, within all ages groups, occurring among people with pre-existing conditions.

Last edited by kraftiekortie on 31 Mar 2020, 3:40 am, edited 1 time in total.

https://www.lung.org/lung-health-diseas ... connection

"Influenza is a common cause of pneumonia, especially among younger children, the elderly, pregnant women, or those with certain chronic health conditions or who live in a nursing home. Most cases of flu never lead to pneumonia, but those that do tend to be more severe and deadly. In fact, flu and pneumonia were the eighth leading cause of death in the United States in 2016."

Me too.

Maybe there will be a debt forgiveness system set up where payments owed to lease holders and whatever other upkeep during the time they were shut down are waved. And if the companies they would owe money to are hit too hard by that, the government will give them a bailout. Or whatever. Hopefully something can and will be concocted.

Last edited by EzraS on 31 Mar 2020, 3:57 am, edited 1 time in total.

And the Rhinovirus, which causes between a half and two thirds of all colds, ( whereas coronaviruses only cause between 7% - 15% of colds ), is responsible for some very serious illnesses too, hence the 3% increased mortality rate on hospital wards and care homes that I already mentioned.

https://academic.oup.com/qjmed/article/94/1/1/1587820

"Finally, in addition to their association with a significant burden of disease in the young, the epidemiological burden of RV infections is also heavy in the elderly. It is widely accepted that colds may result in lower respiratory or systemic involvement in the aged, leading to hospitalizations and even death. RVs were around 50% of identified viruses in respiratory episodes in this age group. In comparison to normal adults, elderly subjects have double the duration of illness, and complications in 62% of RV infections, in contrast to 5–34% reported in the control group. While mortality is generally not high in the overall population, it can be considerable in long‐term care facilities, where RV outbreaks may occur due to segregation. In one study such an outbreak resulted in 3% mortality".

One thing that has crossed my mind is that traffic accidents both critical and fatal have probably decreased significantly. Along with whatever else people are not experiencing while being inside so much.

Plus not only are the measures being taken reducing C19, they are reducing other communicable illness and disease transmission as well.

I think there is probably a give and take balance taking place.

Another kind of fallout:

Lawsuit Filed Against Arizona Board of Regents For Displacement of Students Amid COVID-19

A class action lawsuit has been filed against the Arizona Board of Regents, the governing board for Arizona's three public universities, after the three schools refused to refund room, board and campus fees to students who were displaced because of coronavirus.

All three universities, Arizona State University, University of Arizona and Northern Arizona University, moved their classes to online only for the remainder of the Spring 2020 semester to protect students and staff and prevent the spread of coronavirus.

Students who lived on-campus were either told to move out or encouraged to do so. The lawsuit says the Arizona Board of Regents has refused to offer refunds for the unused portion of their room and board and their campus fees. The lawsuit seeks payment of the prorated, unused amounts of room and board and fees that the class members paid but were unable to use.

https://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blo ... or-st.html

That's how 61,000 people in the US died of the flu last year.

Covid19 might be more likely to develop into pneumonia, but it is still basically the same thing.

That is why the worldometer has consistently shown CV cases as 95% mild and 5% serious or critical.

I wonder how many people severe or deadly cases are people that have the flu and COVID-19 concurrently?. I have not read anything about the testing for both.

Iirc the CDC said that the flu resulted 850,000 hospitalizations and 61,000 deaths in the US during 2017-2018. I found that on the CDC website addressing the burden of the flu on the healthcare system.

That's a very good and very interesting point.

I suppose that if significant numbers of apparent Covid19 cases, ( the severe/critical cases of cough, fever, shortness of breath and pneumonia etc, as you say ), were *actually* cases of influenza which just happened to test positive for the coronavirus too then we would see a drop in influenza numbers below the average? But the numbers of missed flu diagnoses would probably have to be quite large to make a noticeable difference to the normal very large flu numbers.