Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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Risk Assessment

We face many different types of threats during our lives. Sometimes we need to assess them by relative risk.

Will more people die this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic than those that die from the common flu?
Probably not. The World Health Organization estimates that worldwide, annual influenza epidemics result in about 3-5 million cases of severe illness and about 250,000 to 500,000 deaths. Total deaths so far attributed to the Coronavirus is around 41,000. So it doesn't seem likely.

Someone noted that since there are less cars on the roadway, that due to the coronavirus, there may be less auto accidental deaths this year. More than 38,000 people die every year in crashes on U.S. roadways. And if you look at global numbers: Approximately 1.35 million people die in road crashes each year, on average 3,700 people lose their lives every day on the roads.

But I read an article this morning that puts a different spin on the counter effect of the pandemic.

The onslaught of the coronavirus has not only sent the global economy tumbling — it has also hit the black market where it hurts, and Mexican cartels are no exception.

The outbreak of COVID-19 has sent the price of heroin, methamphetamines and fentanyl soaring, as the likes of the Sinaloa cartel – and its main rival, the Jalisco “New Generation” – struggle to obtain the necessary chemicals to make the synthetic drugs, which typically come from China and are now in minimal supply.

“The cartels have suffered from COVID-19 due to the inability to get the regular shipments of synthetic opioids and precursor chemicals for the massive production of meth from China,” Derek Maltz, a former special agent in charge of the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) Special Operations Division in New York, told Fox News.

“The cartels have continued their production at a slower rate, but the demand seems to be increasing during these times of uncertainty in America. The shutdown of cities in China and travel in and out of China have also negatively impacted the flow of chemicals and drugs to Mexico.”

China, where the virus originated late last year, has, for the most part, halted production on the chemicals required for the making of the drugs as it battles the virus within its own borders and battles to make medical supplies for other crumbling countries.

“Drug cartels and criminal support organizations in the industry global drug trafficking have been deeply affected by the pandemic of the COVID-19,” Johan Obdola, president of the Canada-based Global Organization for Intelligence (IOSI), concurred. “Especially when it comes to the operations of the Sinaloa Cartel, which control 90 percent of the entrance of synthetic drugs to the United States.”

Obdola underscored fentanyl, which originates from China, has become the most coveted cartel commodity in recent weeks.

“In China, according to the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA), around 5,000 illegal drug laboratories have been processing synthetic drugs and chemicals to process them. Most of these drugs have Europe and North America as the main markets,” he continued. “Cartels bring synthetic drugs through food exports, fruits, automotive equipment, toys and other products that are allocated in an extensive distribution network across the United States. COVID-19 has generated a huge loss in regarding any illegal drugs, and specifically synthetic drugs, not only to Mexican cartels but to most drug cartels operating worldwide.”

In his assessment, the losses over the last two months stand at around 80 percent of their standard revenue. And the pandemic has seemingly hindered the cartels not only when it comes to getting their fix from China.

“The supply shock precisely comes from the supply chain disruption. At this moment, for the cartels, it must be hard to import cocaine from Colombia,” noted Fernando Posadas, a Latin America analyst for Medley Global Advisors. “The demand shock comes from a contraction in the U.S. economy."

He continued: "Drug consumption will likely be one of the sectors hit the hardest, given that people are now prioritizing in more essential expenses such as rent and food. I would expect a contraction in drug demand of at least 10 to 15 percent this year. That could translate in an annual loss of at least $3 to 5 billion for the cartels.”

Over the past decade, overdoses have claimed the lives of almost half a million Americans, and data from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that some 69,000 died in 2019 alone.

Source: Mexican drug cartels struggle during coronavirus, hike prices as lab supplies from China dry up

So there are many direct, indirect and counter-effects of the pandemic. But the actual numbers when you gather them all together may be a wash or it is even possible that more people as a whole will survive.

Years ago there was a different type of pandemic that took place in Great Britain. It was called Mad Cow Disease. Panic was ablaze in the British Isle. Years later looking back at this, one can observe that the number of farmers who committed suicide because they were forced to destroy their herds of cattle, their livelihood, far exceeded the number of people that actually contracted mad cow disease. It was a cascade of panic that produced a wave of suicide. And the direct effect of this pandemic, and shutting down the economy, may have a follow on effect of a high number of suicides.

When it comes to unknowns, many times different experts will provide conflicting information and even erroneous information. And the common man is left a little bewildered. One of the statements in this pandemic is that the transmission is primarily by touch. But my intuition questions that. I was on a cruise ship a few months before the pandemic broke and from my perspective the cruise ship should be an ideal quarantine structure. Every room is sealed from each other. On the ship I do not recall ever touching another single soul. Sometimes people would pack together when waiting in line to exit the ship or when standing in line for meals. So maybe there was brushing up against people or touching the elevator push button for each floor. So why was a cruise ship a hotbed of viral transmission? Then I think of a nursing home. There is not a lot of human interaction, human touching. The medical staff take extra precautions when they work with patients. My best hunch is that the virus is also being transmitted through the air. On a cruise ship the cabins are tied together with the HVAC ductwork. It just seems like the viruses can travel further than what the experts are currently saying.

There was an article to that effect today:

An MIT researcher has warned that coronavirus droplets could travel up to 27 feet, which could have major implications for social distancing.

Lydia Bourouiba, Ph.D., an associate professor at MIT and expert in fluid dynamics, explained that a sneeze, for example, results in a turbulent gas cloud that could contain coronavirus droplets. The research was published in the Journal of the American Medical Association.

“Recent work has demonstrated that exhalations, sneezes, and coughs not only consist of mucosalivary droplets following short-range semiballistic emission trajectories but, importantly, are primarily made of a multiphase turbulent gas (a puff) cloud that entrains ambient air and traps and carries within it clusters of droplets with a continuum of droplet sizes,” she wrote.

During the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, people have been advised by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to maintain social distancing of at least six feet to limit the risk of exposure. However, Bourouiba’s research indicates that the droplets could travel further much further than that.

“Owing to the forward momentum of the cloud, pathogen-bearing droplets are propelled much farther than if they were emitted in isolation without a turbulent puff cloud trapping and carrying them forward,” she wrote. “Given various combinations of an individual patient’s physiology and environmental conditions, such as humidity and temperature, the gas cloud and its payload of pathogen-bearing droplets of all sizes can travel 23 to 27 feet (7-8 m).”

Bourouiba explains that the range of the droplets, both large and small, is extended through their interaction with and trapping within the turbulent gas cloud.

“Droplets that settle along the trajectory can contaminate surfaces, while the rest remain trapped and clustered in the moving cloud,” she wrote. “Eventually the cloud and its droplet payload lose momentum and coherence, and the remaining droplets within the cloud evaporate, producing residues or droplet nuclei that may stay suspended in the air for hours, following airflow patterns imposed by ventilation or climate-control systems.”

Source: Coronavirus droplets could travel 27 feet, warns MIT researcher

Small businesses are getting $$$$ from the government here.

So much so that a religious person on my facebook posted about people lying about their businesses to get the extra money during this time even though they arent in need. Obviously he was writing against it.

I juat received this text message from the school board:

Due to continued COVID-19 concerns, the closure of all schools will be extended until May 4. See email or Board website for details.

Of course my life will now be kept on hold for studying and getting somewhere in life ...

while XH will work.. relax on weekends.. etc.

Desperate now for Scientists to figure out a vaccine or cure for this thing! God willing. Desperate is the word.