Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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BTW, who started this thread?



I have never noticed.
I think you are too hard on yourself.

Seconded.

Agreed.
Jimmy is our hero.



Agreed.



Ignore him.
I do.



Agreed.

Thats what I am trying to tell you there has been another thread focusing only on facemasks.

No sweat...keep posting

Research by Dr Richard Capek and other scientists has shown that the number of identified cases is rising totally proportionately with the numbers of tests carried out, with no signs of slowing, except when testing slows, which indicates that the numbers of infected "out there" is huge, and the only limit to the number of identified positively infected cases is actually merely how many tests can be carried out.

https://coronadaten.wordpress.com/

And this article looks at the possible range of that number, as estimated by a few scientists.

https://vtdigger.org/2020/03/18/vermont ... -reported/

"The reason we don’t have more precise estimates of how many people are sick in Vermont, or anywhere else in the United States, is because we aren’t testing enough people, according to Steve Goodman, a professor of epidemiology and population health at Stanford University.

“What’s happening is invisible because we only report someone as a case when we test for it,” Goodman said. “The numbers being reported are a function of how many tests we’re doing.”

Goodman says the 16 times multiplier is a rough, back-of-the-envelope hypothetical based on current knowledge of how the virus is spreading in other places. It assumes that one in four people who have COVID-19 are symptomatic enough to be tested, and that positive cases were infected one to two weeks prior, plus 3-4 days for testing and reporting. During that lag time, those four people can unwittingly spread the coronavirus to family, friends, co-workers and classmates, doubling the number of people who are infected every four to six days.

“So if we only test 1 in 4 infected persons, and the number of infected persons doubles twice before we hear about a case, that equals 16,” Goodman said. “That’s the math. It’s always shocking, but also completely predictable.”

The rate of infection estimates can vary widely. Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University environmental science professor, told the Boston Globe that only one in five infected people are symptomatic enough for testing. Another researcher, Samuel Scarpino, a Northeastern University professor who specializes in infectious disease modeling, told the Globe that the U.S. has identified only between 1 of every 10 cases and 1 in 30 cases."

Anywhere between 5 -30 times the number of tested positive.

What that suggests to me — assuming this disease will now become endemic in the human population — is that it will soon be treated just like a regular circulating illness such as the flu, or even the common cold. Most people will be mildly affected by it, if at all; some will become moderately ill, and for them there will be regular treatments and shots within a year (I expect); and a small number, mostly people with other pre-existing conditions or genetic susceptibilities, will become seriously ill, just as they do now with the flu or even with the common cold.

Exactly.

Poor babies.
I hope they get government support.
Scumbags are people too.

What you don't get is that Jimmy was discussing masks here in his thread, way before you started a secondary thread about them. And that you were out of line suggesting that he should be posting about masks in your thread instead of his own. Just apologize for being out of line, instead of digging yourself a deeper hole while continuing to derail.

That is my assessment as well. In 2009 H1N1 was a big scary pandemic. By 2011 it became just a strain of flu and no big deal.

Even the orange man is saying is saying up to 240,000 dead in the US
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-cor ... 1585650226

Most of the time Influenza A H1N1 is 'just a strain of flu', but in 1918 and and 2009 it was a big deal due to the specific mutations within that year's strain. Influenza and coronavirus behave differently and applying the one in hopes of modelling the other isn't likely to be accurate. H1N1 and H5N1 are the two that have gotten attention recently because of how they infect humans, birds and pigs, and humans and birds respectively meaning traits that emerge in one of those populations can cross into strains that circulate within the human population, hence the focus on 'bird flu' and 'pig flu'.

Because they mutate at significantly different rates, that plays a role in how each will behave in a host population. I gotta concede I can't recall which one is faster, but I'm tired and high so you can look it up if it's of interest.

All that said, I believe that COVID19 will soon be treated just like a regular circulating illness such as the swine flu and other 21st century pandemics, based on the extensive research and data provided by ouinon2. Whom you should really be adressing regarding that.

Flu kills like 30-70 thousand people per year in the US alone.

Viruses typically evolve towards less deadly over time. With less severe symptoms they are more likely to infect more people. Additionally, human immune systems adapt to them, making them even less deadly.
Yes, it's likely that COVID19 will end up being one of the viruses circualting around and causing common cold. I just don't know how much time it and the population need before it happens. And maybe someone develops a vaccine earlier.

That's a possible outcome, even if I don't believe it's inevitable. I wasn't looking to make an argument, I was lecturing a bit about a topic I know a bit more about. I don't only respond to your posts to argue or debate; there's people I disagree with more who I'm still civil and willing to engage with outside the context of trying to score points.