Are we at the edge of another pandemic? H5N1

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On 27 June 2024, 9:49 A.M., I summarized the approach to survive a very deadly disease called H5N1 Avian Flu, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza. I have covered a lot of information over the past several weeks on the next potential pandemic called H5N1. I have come to realize this pandemic will primarily be transmitted by insects, primarily Mosquitoes. Mosquitoes infect humans with a blood to blood transfer between infected to uninfected birds/animals/humans.

There’s a saying that those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

H5N1 has spread across many types of birds dealing wave after wave of deaths. In the last few years, it has infected over 500 different species of birds, driving some to near extinction. This virus has established its presence in 108 countries, across five continents. It even transitioned to chickens. But it is on the move and has impacted many types of animals, most recently dairy cattle. It has spread to 70 mammal species globally. It is in our homes (cats and mice). It is on the move and another species is contracting this threat. It is beginning to show up in Pigs as a very deadly Swine Flu. -- Pigs are a "mixing vessels" for influenza viruses, specifically those infecting birds, humans, and other pigs. If H5N1 were to become endemic in U.S. pigs, then those viruses could undergo genetic reassortment, creating entirely novel strains, very deadly human strains.

This virus has been evolving over the past few years. It began with birds and spread to animals and humans. The disease is passing across a maze of viruses in recent years including H5N1, H5N2, H5N3, H5N5, H5N6, H5N8 and H5N9. But in my opinion the primary threat is H1N1.

H1N1 decimated the human population during the First World War. It went by many names including the Spanish Flu which killed between 50 and 100 million people during the period from 1918-1919. This plague went by many names. The Americans fell ill with "three-day fever" or "purple death." The French caught "purulent bronchitis." The Italians suffered "sand fly fever." German hospitals filled with victims of Blitzkatarrh or "Flanders fever. Sand fly fever is an arthropod-borne viral disease, also known as “Phlebotomus fever”, “mosquito fever”.

From 1918 to 1919, the Spanish flu infected an estimated 500 million people globally. This amounted to about 33% of the world's population at the time. In addition, the Spanish flu killed about 50 million people, about 6 percent of the Earth's population. Since the world population has grown around 5 times in the last 100 years. The threat might impact 2.5 billion people should it materialize today.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVpBFy_TRtA

How were the victims of H1N1 treated in front line hospitals during 1918/1919? No matter what they called it, the virus attacked everyone similarly. It started like any other influenza case, with a sore throat, chills and fever. Then came the deadly twist: the virus ravaged its victim's lungs. Sometimes within hours, patients succumbed to complete respiratory failure. Autopsies showed hard, red lungs drenched in fluid. A microscopic look at diseased lung tissue revealed that the alveoli, the lungs' normally air-filled cells, were so full of fluid that victims literally drowned. The slow suffocation began when patients presented with a unique symptom: mahogany spots over their cheekbones. Within hours these patients turned a bluish-black hue indicative of cyanosis, or lack of oxygen. When triaging scores of new patients, nurses often looked at the patients' feet first. Those with black feet were considered beyond help and were carted off to die.

In my humble opinion, these diseases are transmitted by insects. An insect bites an infected bird/animal/human and then transmitted the blood directly to another bird/ animal/human. The following is a good approach to limiting the spread in humans.

1. You can protect yourself from mosquito bites in two ways. If you spend a lot of time outdoors you can create protective clothing (boots, clothing and camping gear) that repel mosquitoes by treating them with Permethrin.

2. You can also protect yourself from mosquito bites by applying mosquito repellent on you skin. This will provide short protection (several hours) to drive away mosquitoes. There are a variety of products available. They include DEET, Picaridin, IR3535, Oil of lemon, Para-menthane-diol eucalyptus, and 2-Undecanone.

3. Another product that can help prevent mosquito bites is Metofluthrin. Metofluthrin is a pyrethroid used as an insect repellent. The vapors of metofluthrin are highly effective and capable of repelling up to 97% of mosquitoes in field tests. Metofluthrin is used in a variety of consumer products, called emanators, for indoor and outdoor use. These products produce a vapor that protects an individual or area. Effectiveness is reduced by air movement. Metofluthrin is neurotoxic, and is not meant to be applied directly to human skin.

4. Accidents can happen. What to do immediately after being bitten by a mosquito? Treat the bite with Tecnu Topical Analgesic Anti-Itch Spray (Diphenhydramine HCl 2% ). There is another product that can diminish the effects of being bitten by an infected insect. It is called ChiggereX. This product contains 10% Benzocaine.

5. If you become infected with H5N1 treat the condition immediately using one of four FDA-approved antivirals for influenza: (1) Oseltamivir phosphate (Tamiflu), (2) Zanamivir (Relenza), (3) Peramivir (Rapivab), (4) Baloxavir (Xofluza). These are prescription drugs and will require a doctors prescription. Time is of the essence here. This condition will begin to destroy the human body and make it impossible to treat within a few days. Time is of the essence.

6. Some people are very vulnerable to mosquito bites. These are people with open wounds. Just covering the wounded area with bandages will not protect you. Mosquitoes can smell your blood and you become a prime target. I suffered a small bleed and was attacked by around 50 mosquitoes in less then two hours outdoors. (Luckily I had protected myself with DEET before I went outside and as a result, NOT ONE MOSQUITO WAS ABLE TO BITE ME.) This may also be a problem for women who are going through their menstrual period.

7. Go on the offensive. Wage a war on mosquitoes. In general, mosquitoes live in a hot humid environment. They most commonly infest Ponds, Marshes, Swamps, and Other wetland habitats. So minimize their breeding grounds. Wage war on mosquitoes.

8. Use our friends. What, you didn't realize we have allies in our war on Mosquitoes? We have many friends. Some are birds like woodpeckers, some are other insects like dragonflies, some are fish like gambusia affinis.

9. Wastewater tracking of H5N1 can identify the specific regions in the U.S. where the outbreak is underway. One of these regions is San Francisco, California. This area could be Ground Zero of the outbreak. But we cannot monitor the threat because the funding for Wastewater tracking has been halted. But time has been wasted and H5N1 is on the move and Central Valley in California is in the epicenter.

In the historic past, migrating birds were the long distance transport agents of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1. Seasonally they would move the infectious disease between the northern and southern hemispheres as the seasons changed from summer to winter. But now as humans have developed means of rapid transport, such as jet aircraft, the speed and distance this virus can spread is rapidly accelerated.

Human cases of H5N1 in the United Kingdom (UK).

Human case of avian flu detected in England as virus spreads among birds

A human case of highly pathogenic bird flu has been detected in England, authorities have said, as bird flu cases escalate across the country. It is only the second symptomatic human case of H5N1 bird flu recorded in the UK, after the first was detected in 2022, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said. The individual contracted the infection on a farm in the West Midlands after contact with a large number of infected birds, with authorities describing it as a “very rare event”.

Since 2021 there have been seven cases of bird flu in humans in England, all of whom had been in direct contact with infected birds. Two developed symptoms, while the rest were asymptomatic.

The individual was admitted to a high consequence infectious disease unit and is currently well. The case was detected after routine monitoring of people who had been in contact with infected birds.

Human bird flu infections are alarming health officials. Since the beginning last year, the U.S. has recorded 67 confirmed human cases of bird flu, most of which were found in people working in poultry or dairy farms. Most were considered mild, with low risk to the general public. However, the U.S. announced its first death from the virus, in Louisiana, this month. Since last September there have also been 10 cases reported in China and one in Vietnam.

What effect is H5N1 having on farmers and ranchers?

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the current HPAI panzootic began in the United States in February 2022, when the first case was reported in Dubois County, Indiana. Since then, 868 commercial poultry flocks across the country have been affected, including broilers (meat chickens), layer hens, and turkeys according to data published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The economic consequences have been substantial. As of November 2024, the outbreak had cost the country approximately $1.4 billion, the majority of which is for indemnity and compensation payments to farmers for flocks that have been culled.

To put this in perspective, the US poultry industry has an estimated total economic value of $77 billion. With new cases continuing to emerge, I fear the financial burden of the outbreak will only grow.

Source: Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza: A Persistent Threat To US Poultry

The Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management (DEM) announced the presence of the H5N1 strain of avian influenza in a non-commercial farm flock in southern Washington County.

DEM staff humanely euthanized a flock of about 40 birds to prevent the spread of the disease.

I came across an update and history of H5N1 outbreaks in the U.K.

A human case of bird flu has recently been detected in England. This news comes just days after restrictions were put in place to curb the virus’s spread among wild birds and poultry in England and Scotland.

Although cases of bird flu are surging among birds in the UK, the risk of the virus spreading to humans remains extremely low. A bit of context about influenza explains why health protection agencies think this is the case.

There are many different influenza viruses, each specialising in infecting different types of animals. Humans deal with three types of seasonal influenza viruses – H1N1, N2 and influenza B. Meanwhile, birds, particularly shore birds and waterfowl, contend with a vast number of their own influenza viruses.

Most avian influenza viruses cause minor infections, but a small subset, called highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs), cause more serious illness. Among these, H5N1 stands out, having caused major poultry die-offs worldwide and occasionally serious illness in humans. In 2020, H5N1 evolved to spread more aggressively in wild birds.

The outbreak has led to devastating seabird die-offs and outbreaks in farmed birds. While cases subsided in mid-2023, they surged again in autumn 2024, leading to new avian influenza prevention zones in England, Scotland and Wales.

Source: Bird flu cases surging in UK but risk to humans remains low

This still leads me to believe if a pandemic materializes, it will be H1N1, which is a known event seen in 1918 (otherwise called the Spanish Flu).

Seven months ago (on 26 June 2024 at 8:51 A.M.) on this thread I made the point that it was extremely important to test the entire population for H5N1. At the time I wrote:

The Beginning of a Pandemic

We may be about to experience a major pandemic called H5N1 and at this stage no one is testing humans. We have the ability but we are operating in the blind. We don’t know for sure whether the disease is circulating. All it takes is a simple throat or nasal swab to test for the presence of H5N1 and we are not doing this.

Now seven months later, they are beginning to agree.

CDC Advises Expedited Influenza Subtyping in Hospitalized Patients to Help Identify Bird Flu Cases Sooner

About a week after the first human death linked to the highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus, or H5N1 bird flu, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a health advisory recommending expedited subtyping of all specimens positive for influenza A in hospitalized patients—especially those in an intensive care unit (ICU).

The guidance, issued on January 16, follows 66 reported cases of humans infected with the bird flu virus since 2024 and the first severe case, which resulted in the death of an older adult with underlying medical conditions in Louisiana. Amid elevated seasonal influenza activity, the CDC cautioned that increased volumes of patients seeking medical attention may introduce delays to the specific identification and treatment of H5N1 infections.

In response, the advisory goes beyond the CDC’s routine recommendation to test hospitalized patients for suspected influenza. Instead, the accelerated blanket approach pushes to further investigate all influenza A specimens to distinguish bird flu cases from those of seasonal influenza A—ideally within 24 hours of hospital admission. This expedited subtyping will enable prompt infection control and optimized patient care, the advisory noted.

I have said before, this H5N1 threat works extremely fast. In less then 24 hours from when a person shows symptoms, their body has reached a point of no return. In other words they will die.

A growing number of humans becoming infected as the virus mutates. Observations over the past 4 years.

I came across another encrypted news article, so I opened it up to see what was inside.

A conservation group in Chicago, Illinois says hundreds of red-breasted mergansers, a species of diving duck that typically winters in the Great Lakes region, have been found sick or dead of suspected avian influenza — H5N1 bird flu — in the area over recent days. It’s “receiving reports of a huge number of sick or dead red-breasted mergansers being found in areas around the Lake Michigan shoreline.”

“These birds are grounded on beaches, yards, parking lots and sidewalks,” the post says. “They present with tremors and little ability to move.”

According to a Sun-Times report, CBCM director Annette Prince estimated that about 200 to 300 infected red-breasted mergansers were reported to the organization between this past Friday and Sunday. The two largest concentrations, Prince told the Sun-Times, were found Saturday at North Avenue Beach and Oak Street Beach.

CBCM says the reports of sick or dead red-breasted mergansers comes after it received “hundreds of calls” in December, stretching over an eight-county area, about geese, hawks and owls demonstrating bird flu symptoms. Initially, CBCM says, most cases of bird flu were found in waterfowl, but as dead birds remain on the ground, other species preying on their remains pick up an increased chance of being exposed to the virus.

As for when the bird flu outbreak may subside, CBCM says on Facebook: “We do not know when this current outbreak will end, but the virus does not survive well in warmer temperatures, which we will reach in the spring.”

Source: Hundreds of ducks found sick or dead of suspected bird flu along Lake Michigan, local conservation group reports

Bird Flu is on the move. Everyone is concerned about H5N1 but other stains exist and one is H5N9. But my focus still remains on another H1N1.

A Second Type of Bird Flu is Circulating in U.S. Ducks—What to Know

A strain of bird flu never seen before in the United States has been detected among poultry at a California farm. The virus, called highly pathogenic H5N9, is a type of avian influenza, otherwise known as "bird flu." This is not the same type of bird flu that's already been spreading on dairy cow and poultry farms in the U.S., causing at least several dozen infections in humans. That virus is called H5N1.

H5N9 is a highly pathogenic avian flu (or bird flu) virus that bears some structural similarities to H5N1.
"Low pathogenic" H5N9 viruses have previously been detected in birds in the U.S. and elsewhere in the world, dating back to the 1960s. However, these infections are usually associated with less-severe symptoms than "highly pathogenic" strains are. This is the first time highly pathogenic H5N9 has been seen in the U.S., and these deadlier strains are also fairly uncommon worldwide.

Nearly 119,000 birds have been culled at a farm in California after a bird flu called H5N9 was detected among the poultry.

The history of how Bird Flu began spreading in birds around the world. The virus is in a state of flux.

The H5N1 bird flu virus first emerged in southern China in 1996 and caused large outbreaks in poultry in Hong Kong in 1997. The outbreak was controlled but not eradicated and resurfaced in 2003. The H5N1 bird flu currently circulating is genetically different from earlier versions of the virus and emerged to become the predominant strain of the virus in the fall of 2021, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

There have been widespread poultry outbreaks across the country since 2022, and the first multistate outbreak of H5N1 in cows was documented in the United States in March 2024.

The article from Massachusetts then goes on to say:

After dozens of birds have been found sick or dead in various locations, officials say bird flu is now believed to be widespread in the state, particularly in the southeastern region.

Source: Officials say bird flu likely widespread in the state.

NPR

Bird flu is on the move again. This time in dairy cattle.

The USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL) confirmed the first detection of a new strain of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), also known as H5N1 or bird flu, in Nevada dairy cattle on Jan. 31.

APHIS used whole genome sequencing to confirm HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b, genotype D1.1. This confirmation was a result of state tracing and investigation, following an initial detection on silo testing under the USDA’s National Milk Testing Strategy (NMTS) in Nevada.

This is the first detection of this virus genotype in dairy cattle. All previous detections in dairy cattle have been HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b, genotype B3.13. Genotype D1.1 represents the predominant genotype in the North Ameran flyways this past fall and winter and has been identified in wild birds, mammals and spillovers into domestic poultry.

Source: USDA Confirms New Strain of Bird Flu in Nevada Dairy Cattle