Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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funeralxempire
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01 Apr 2020, 3:35 am

magz wrote:

EzraS wrote:

funeralxempire wrote:

EzraS wrote:

That is my assessment as well. In 2009 H1N1 was a big scary pandemic. By 2011 it became just a strain of flu and no big deal.

Most of the time Influenza A H1N1 is 'just a strain of flu', but in 1918 and and 2009 it was a big deal due to the specific mutations within that year's strain. Influenza and coronavirus behave differently and applying the one in hopes of modelling the other isn't likely to be accurate. H1N1 and H5N1 are the two that have gotten attention recently because of how they infect humans, birds and pigs, and humans and birds respectively meaning traits that emerge in one of those populations can cross into strains that circulate within the human population, hence the focus on 'bird flu' and 'pig flu'.

Because they mutate at significantly different rates, that plays a role in how each will behave in a host population. I gotta concede I can't recall which one is faster, but I'm tired and high so you can look it up if it's of interest.

All that said, I believe that COVID19 will soon be treated just like a regular circulating illness such as the swine flu and other 21st century pandemics, based on the extensive research and data provided by ouinon2. Whom you should really be adressing regarding that.

Viruses typically evolve towards less deadly over time. With less severe symptoms they are more likely to infect more people. Additionally, human immune systems adapt to them, making them even less deadly.
Yes, it's likely that COVID19 will end up being one of the viruses circulating around and causing common cold. I just don't know how much time it and the population need before it happens. And maybe someone develops a vaccine earlier.

So, just to be pedantic about nomenclature, COVID-19 doesn't cause anything. SARS-CoV-2 causes COVID-19, and already a portion of cases have no diagnostic difference between 'COVID-19' and common cold. COVID-19 is the illness, SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes it. </asd>

Viruses generally evolve to be less deadly, but that's not the end they're being selected for. They're being selected for being able to spread better and cause less of an immune response. Hypothetically speaking, something that spreads rapidly with a few days to incubate with little or no symptoms and then turns deadly with massive loss of bodily fluids infecting a society that lacks modern hygienic practises and understanding of germs would be able to spread just as fast as one that isn't deadly. It could be compounded by other factors, like funerary practices, but even a society like ours would struggle if the incubation period was longer. As an example; we've been beating HIV with science not evolution (and it only spreads through fluids, it doesn't cause one to leak them spontaneously like my hypothetical).

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cyberdad
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01 Apr 2020, 3:46 am

magz wrote:

Are you talking about airborne viruses? HIV (via body fluids) and Ebola (via touch)remain deadly. For that matter I am sure nobody with asthma wants to get SARS...

Pepe
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01 Apr 2020, 3:48 am

EzraS wrote:

cyberdad wrote:

jimmy m wrote:

If you wish to have another thread devoted solely to the topic of face mask, go right ahead. .

Thats what I am trying to tell you there has been another thread focusing only on facemasks.

No sweat...keep posting

What you don't get is that Jimmy was discussing masks here in his thread, way before you started a secondary thread about them. And that you were out of line suggesting that he should be posting about masks in your thread instead of his own. Just apologize for being out of line, instead of digging yourself a deeper hole while continuing to derail.

He has capitulated.
This nonsense shouldn't have started in the first place. :shrug:

But I did find it "interesting", from a psycho-analytical perspective. :mrgreen:

All data is good data. :wink:

EzraS
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01 Apr 2020, 3:55 am

Every pandemic this century has started out with lots of fear and dire predictions, and ened up fizzling out along those lines.

Like I figured in early March from watching the numbers, Covid did not even surpass a million cases worldwide by April 1st.

To me it needs to at least match the numbers of other pandemics before I start regarding it as the worst. As of April 1st and past Day 60 it still has not even gotten out of the starting gate.

And I mean hasn't gotten out of the gate based on just the numbers seen in the US, rather than globally.

Pepe
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01 Apr 2020, 3:57 am

magz wrote:

Viruses typically evolve towards less deadly over time.

I haven't drilled deeply into the subject, but I have heard in passing that there is a belief that a recent deadly virus strain mutated into a less severe form and virtually disappeared.
Fingers crossed.

magz
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01 Apr 2020, 4:09 am

cyberdad wrote:

magz wrote:

Are you talking about airborne viruses? HIV (via body fluids) and Ebola (via touch)remain deadly. For that matter I am sure nobody with asthma wants to get SARS...

I don't think it's about the entry way for the virus.
HIV kills slowly, one has quite a lot of time to spread it before dying.
Ebola is tricky, it causes sudden, short-lived, highly localized outbreaks of the deadliest strains. What I'm currently learning, each Ebola outbreak was a separate occurence of shifting of the disease from animals - unlike flu and sars where such shifts are rare.

Flu and SARS viruses seem to evolve towards milder but still very contagious - as it happened with H1N1 and previous SARS.

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Last edited by magz on 01 Apr 2020, 4:27 am, edited 2 times in total.

Pepe
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01 Apr 2020, 4:13 am

EzraS wrote:

The novel thing about this virus is the ease of contamination.
I have heard that it is 10x as contagious as the flu.

Could it be that many people have the garden variety of flu antibodies for an extended time, reducing reinfection?
If this is part of it, will this be the case once corona becomes endemic?
I really haven't a clue.
Just musing. :wink:

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The death rate in Oz: 0.41%

EzraS
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01 Apr 2020, 4:30 am

Here's an interesting number. Regarding the 2009 H1N1 Swine Flu, CDC estimated that 700 million to 1.4 billion people contracted the illness. And CDC estimated there were150,000–575,000 possible fatalities worldwide.

Seems to me that COVID19 has a really very extremely long ways to go towrds being the worst pandemic of this century.

I say the worst considering all the extreme measures taken that have never been taken before for any other pandemic.

EzraS
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01 Apr 2020, 4:38 am

Pepe wrote:

The novel thing about this virus is the ease of contamination.
I have heard that it is 10x as contagious as the flu.

That's what I keep hearing, but that's not what I have been seeing.

Going into its third month as a pandemic and 800,000 out of 8,000,000,000 infected.

Last edited by EzraS on 01 Apr 2020, 4:45 am, edited 1 time in total.

magz
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01 Apr 2020, 4:41 am

EzraS wrote:

Pepe wrote:

The novel thing about this virus is the ease of contamination.
I have heard that it is 10x as contagious as the flu.

That's what I keep hearing, but that's not what I have been seeing.

"Seeing" where?

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EzraS
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01 Apr 2020, 4:46 am

magz wrote:

EzraS wrote:

Pepe wrote:

The novel thing about this virus is the ease of contamination.
I have heard that it is 10x as contagious as the flu.

That's what I keep hearing, but that's not what I have been seeing.

"Seeing" where?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

magz
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01 Apr 2020, 4:58 am

EzraS wrote:

magz wrote:

EzraS wrote:

Pepe wrote:

The novel thing about this virus is the ease of contamination.
I have heard that it is 10x as contagious as the flu.

That's what I keep hearing, but that's not what I have been seeing.

"Seeing" where?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This summary does not account for the fact that the trends are still growing, in many places still exponentially.
We can compare SARS2 to flu after the season is over. Now, in most places worldwide, we're at the beginning.

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EzraS
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01 Apr 2020, 5:06 am

magz wrote:

EzraS wrote:

magz wrote:

EzraS wrote:

Pepe wrote:

The novel thing about this virus is the ease of contamination.
I have heard that it is 10x as contagious as the flu.

That's what I keep hearing, but that's not what I have been seeing.

"Seeing" where?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I have been watching it complie daily. I have been watching contries and states decreasing and moving further down the list, like Iran for example.

It's interesting all the castigating I have received for trying to downplay it, rather than seeing it as me being hopeful.

Last edited by EzraS on 01 Apr 2020, 5:13 am, edited 1 time in total.

magz
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01 Apr 2020, 5:09 am

EzraS wrote:

magz wrote:

EzraS wrote:

magz wrote:

EzraS wrote:

Pepe wrote:

The novel thing about this virus is the ease of contamination.
I have heard that it is 10x as contagious as the flu.

That's what I keep hearing, but that's not what I have been seeing.

"Seeing" where?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I have been watching it complie daily.

And building graphs?

New cases daily:

Note - in semi-log plot, exponential growth looks linear.

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EzraS
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01 Apr 2020, 5:15 am

Are you saying the graphs are disagreeing with the numbers?

magz
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01 Apr 2020, 5:17 am

Nope, I'm saying the graphs are useful to interpret the numbers correctly.

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