Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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Magna
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01 Apr 2020, 9:39 pm

Syd wrote:

-greed
-censorship
-misinformation
-massive corruption
-animal rights violations
-human rights violations
-environmental destruction, pollution

I'd add an underlying goal of world domination and subjugation that most everyone seems to forget about.

blackicmenace
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01 Apr 2020, 9:42 pm

Syd wrote:

Pepe wrote:

Are you defending china?
Just asking. :wink:

Hell no!

I mean, I feel sorry for their citizens. But their government are horrible monsters.

-greed
-censorship
-misinformation
-massive corruption
-animal rights violations
-human rights violations
-environmental destruction, pollution

I fail to see what's evil about their social credit system. (sarcasm)

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EzraS
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01 Apr 2020, 9:43 pm

Magna wrote:

Brehus wrote:

March 1st 98 cases of COVID-19 in the USA April 1st 209,071 cases and counting

May 1st 1,000,000 cases?

Could easily be I suppose considering in 2019 there were 35,000,000 cases of the flu.

EzraS
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01 Apr 2020, 9:57 pm

ouinon2 wrote:

magz wrote:

ouinon2 wrote:

If you look closely you will see that this is the latest entry from 1 April, as I said above, in a running journal/blog ( begun on the 14 March ).

And the website is indeed independent, and very highly respected, referred to by public figures.

I still find it illogical: They agree with the mainstream that the most deadly contributor in Italy is healthcare system collapse and then they proceed to propose a nation-wide Corona party so everyone gets simultanously infected to gain immunity. Do you see the problem?

No, because coronavirus minus the panic is probably no more/not much more dangerous/deadly than a bad cold or a bout of flu, with similar risks to the older and more vulnerable, but something that in the absence of panic they could probably just about handle as they have for a few years now, by the skin of their teeth, with the help of neighbouring countries, etc, but in combination with panic has been unmanageable.

The more I am learning about Corona, the less afraid I am of getting it. At first I was thinking it would kill me for sure. But now I figure it will probably affect my respiratory system about the same way as other viruses have. Which means I will go though a rough time but will probably pull through. That does not mean that I will start taking any risks though.

cyberdad
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01 Apr 2020, 9:58 pm

Magna wrote:

I hope China's lies end up sullying U.S./China relations for at least a generation. In fact, I hope China's relations with other nations around the glove are sullied just as much and for just as long. I have my doubts, however; there is a strong undercurrent of pro-China propaganda that's been fed to the world for decades and there is an equal pro-China embrace by people around the world who have fallen for the propaganda.

Australia's economy is too closely reliant on China, If China goes down then so do we. This is the sins of the father....trade agreements made with the intention of making money from China's rapid development from back in the 1960s.

Brehus
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01 Apr 2020, 10:10 pm

Here is a video that has good explanation of what exponentially growth is how it can lead to a false sense of how things aren't bad and then boom it got bad really fast.

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funeralxempire
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01 Apr 2020, 10:21 pm

jimmy m wrote:

It seems like comorbidities play a major role on the seriousness of the affect on individuals. Doctors treating these patients are seeing that diabetes and being overweight in the obese category place an individual in extreme risk of this coronavirus.

It seems fair that other factors that diminish breathing efficiency would compound this/be compounded by this.

A person in good health has a lot of "headroom" since we need to be able to provide enough to run/fight/do other physical activity.

If you're heavier you likely have more mass per unit of surface area in your lungs.
If you smoke or have asthma or other pulmonary issues each unit of surface area is less efficient.
Fluid or scarring both would diminish the total area available.

Each factor like that in play stacks and increases how severe the others are. If you've got half the area available, and it's only able to work at half capacity and each unit has to provide for more flesh than would be typical, your base level might be close to maximum capacity before any work is being done and that's before you've gotten sick.

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EzraS
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01 Apr 2020, 10:29 pm

Brehus wrote:

Here is a video that has good explanation of what exponentially growth is how it can lead to a false sense of how things aren't bad and then boom it got bad really fast.

That's like how cells multiply after an egg is fertilized 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 and so on.

But the question is, at what exponential rate have virus epidemics and pandemics grown?

EzraS
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01 Apr 2020, 10:44 pm

funeralxempire wrote:

jimmy m wrote:

The comorbidities that play out in coronavirus play out with all viruses. Just the comorbidities themselves without any other mitigating factor puts a person at great risk of dying from them. Often they are compounded. Such as a lot of people who are obese also have type-2 diabetes. Then age increases that. If you are obese and over age 50, you have a much greater risk of developing type-2 diabetes. Diabetes itself leads to other comorbidities such as poor blood circulation. A lot of people over 50 who are obese and have diabetes also start developing congestive heart failure because they also have hypertension. Then a they get a virus on top of all that and it ends up being the straw that breaks the camel's back.

funeralxempire
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01 Apr 2020, 10:50 pm

EzraS wrote:

funeralxempire wrote:

jimmy m wrote:

For what it's worth I was pretty fixated on the whole breathing side of things, since that's where I noticed 'hmm, i'm a little sick but fine if i lay down, seems if i do anything more i'll be coughing immediately'.

Definitely other factors would all stack too, but maybe more in an additive way, whereas when it's all things making one system less effective it seems they'd multiply instead. Not an expert, only guessing. :nerdy:

EzraS wrote:

But the question is, at what exponential rate have virus epidemics and pandemics grown?

I don't imagine there'd be one, and there'd be loads of factors in play for why even two pandemics of the same thing (in general) don't always behave the same. I don't think r is a number, r will be an entire model.

blackicmenace
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01 Apr 2020, 10:51 pm

EzraS wrote:

Brehus wrote:

Here is a video that has good explanation of what exponentially growth is how it can lead to a false sense of how things aren't bad and then boom it got bad really fast.

That's like how cells multiply after an egg is fertilized 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 and so on.

But the question is, at what exponential rate have virus epidemics and pandemics grown?

It's not smallpox, we should be grateful covid19 is not more dangerous than it seems thus far. It could have been much worse, so perhaps it's best we learn from this experience to plan for future pandemics. People are suffering great loss around the globe and we need to remain vigilant to defeat this virus to save as many lives as we can.

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EzraS
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01 Apr 2020, 10:57 pm

I'm noticing that my home state of Washington, which had the first case of corona in the US, keeps moving down the list of sates with the most cases. It seems like, looking at it optimistically, maybe corona has already reached its peak here. Neighboring states all have low case numbers. So perhaps Washington is out of the woods (tiny bit of a pun).

Misslizard
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01 Apr 2020, 11:04 pm

Went to town today and there is still a toilet paper shortage and no sanitizer of any kind.They also limited people to a bag of flour or cornmeal.I had to get my meal at the dollar store and I got the last bag.
I saw a few other people wearing masks and found out our one confirmed case works at the nursing home,not good.
A employee at one of the stores said some people had left NOLA at midnight to escape up here and found all the tourist facilities closed.She told them they should have stayed put.We don’t need viral refugees.
The governor closed the Buffalo river and no staying overnight at campgrounds anymore either.
Turns out that 60% of them were from out of state.Just go home people,we don’t want your infected tourist money or you.
The largest cafe has closed and the feed store was taking orders at door only.

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eikonabridge
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01 Apr 2020, 11:06 pm

B19 wrote:

It seems to me that many people have got the impression from sensationalised media reports that Coronavirus is something completely new. The reports are omitting to mention - as far as I can see - that this latest version is a new strain - not a new disease per se. There are many coronavirus strains and people have been exposed to them and infected for decades, perhaps centuries.

While prudence is sensible, the hysteria seems to be extreme at the moment. I think some of this may be politically driven. The flu is a coronavirus, so are many respiratory illnesses.

jimmy m wrote:

The coronavirus is just one form of the influenza (the common flu). The name “influenza” originated in 15th century Italy, from an epidemic attributed to “influence of the stars.” The first pandemic, or worldwide epidemic, that clearly fits the description of influenza was in 1580. This disease has probably been around for a very long time, perhaps hundreds of thousands of years IMHO. Societies have developed means of remediating the severity of the flu throughout many generations. For example, saunas. If you take away the saunas there may be an uptick in the number of flu cases in the Scandinavian countries. The Chinese dealt with it by bundling up in the winter with many layers of clothing. That was how societies found a way of surviving. This is a type of tradition. But if you change the tradition, you also change the outcome.

Brehus wrote:

Kind of odd they just call it the coronavirus.
When coronavirus is just a type of virus.

The common cold is caused by a coronavirus thus you end with the guys saying the coronavirus has been around for years a bottle of Lysol says it kills the coronavirus.

SARS and MERS are also both a Coronavirus

I just got over a coronavirus a cold that is

There are inaccuracies in these postings. I just got scolded by professional biochemistry / pharmaceutical researchers when I said the flu virus is also a coronavirus.

(1) The coronavirus and the influenza virus belong to different types of viruses. They are already different at the Phylum level.

Influenza:
Realm: Riboviria
Phylum: Negarnaviricota
Class: Insthoviricetes
Order: Articulavirales
Family: Orthomyxoviridae

Coronavirus:
Realm: Riboviria
Phylum: incertae sedis
Order: Nidovirales
Family: Coronaviridae
Subfamily: Orthocoronavirinae

(2) Some human common cold types are cause by coronaviruses (human coronavirus 229E and human coronavirus OC43, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus). But coronaviruses cause other conditions, like SARS, MERS, COVID-19, etc. In no case does a coronavirus cause influenza. Also, not all common colds are caused by coronaviruses. The most common type of cold is caused by

Rhinovirus
Realm: Riboviria
Phylum: incertae sedis
Order: Picornavirales
Family: Picornaviridae
Genus: Enterovirus

Sorry, but the three quoted postings above all suffer from inaccuracies that are severe enough to cause misinformation. They need to be corrected.

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Last edited by eikonabridge on 01 Apr 2020, 11:09 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Brehus
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01 Apr 2020, 11:06 pm

EzraS wrote:

Brehus wrote:

Here is a video that has good explanation of what exponentially growth is how it can lead to a false sense of how things aren't bad and then boom it got bad really fast.

That's like how cells multiply after an egg is fertilized 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 and so on.

But the question is, at what exponential rate have virus epidemics and pandemics grown?

The flu has already gone through it is exponential growth cycle for the year so it really doesn't make sense to compare it to the Flu when the Covid-19 virus just started its exponential growth cycle in the USA.
March 1st 98 case 2 deaths April 1st current cases 216,525 cases 5119 deaths if exponential growth has caused that big of increase in 31 days what are the numbers going to be in another month? Granted the shelter in place many cities have in place should slow down the exponential growth.

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Syd
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01 Apr 2020, 11:12 pm

I thought they told us, be vigilant...

...not be a vigilante!

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/pe ... -gun-sales

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