Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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I wonder how many of those 128,948 H1N1 hospitalizations required ICU.
I can't find good statistics for covid hospitalizations.
Covid is more deadly than H1N1 - already more confirmed deaths than during the whole two seasons of H1N1 - and makes more people require intensive care.

It's probably not the last big pandemics in my lifetime. With sheer world population size and ease of travelling, we have to expect bigger and smaller outbreaks every now and then - and adapt to functioning in spite of them.
I think Koreans and Taiwanese are ahead of the rest of the world with this.

You are welcome Amity, always glad to see respectful people still post on WP

If you need an explanation, just ask.

Generally I feel that we should wait until this pandemic is over with before we look at assigning blame. But I came across an interesting article and I will place it here (like a widget stored in a lockbox) for discussion at some future time when the pandemic is over and dead.

Bad luck played a role in the COVID-19 pandemic, but China's criminally negligent and malevolent behavior has placed the world in a position in which bad things are likelier to occur. Therefore, China must bear the brunt of the blame, and our relationship with that country should not go back to normal.

When the COVID-19 pandemic finally slows down, there will be one burning question that all of us will want to know the answer to: "Who is to blame for the coronavirus?"

As a rule, I believe that Americans (and probably people in general) are too quick to assign blame. Day-to-day events are largely unpredictable, knowledge is imperfect, humans are fallible, and nothing is permanent. Toss in a healthy dose of entropy, and you have a recipe for bad luck.

But nobody likes "bad luck" as an explanation for events. That's why after catastrophes occur, lawsuits fly, particularly in the United States. Someone must be held accountable. Who will we blame for COVID-19?

The American public will blame the Trump administration. President Trump will blame Europe. The Europeans will blame Italy. The Italians will blame China. The Chinese will blame the government. All over the world, citizens will point fingers at their own politicians, asking, "Why weren't you prepared for this?"

COVID-19: All Fingers Point to China

Ultimately, China is to blame. Even if bad luck played a role -- and it certainly did -- China's actions have exacerbated the crisis and put the world in a position in which bad things are likelier to happen. That is why, for at least four particular reasons, China deserves the largest share of the blame:

(1) Wet markets. The long-standing practice of wet markets — in which live animals, some exotic, are butchered in front of eager customers — set the stage for the pandemic. Millions of people coming into regular contact with both living and dead animals is simply asking for a virus to jump between species. It is believed that a wet market in Guangdong was responsible for the SARS outbreak in 2002.

What exactly is a wet market like? Let Melissa Chen describe it:

"A distinctly fetid stench greets you long before entering the market; soon it becomes apparent why they’re referred to as ‘wet’. Unidentified fluids, sometimes with ribbons of red swirls, pool around your shoes, draining from the blocks of ice used to keep all the meats fresh."

...

"Pictures and video clips circulated on Weibo and other social media platforms showed the range of animals on sale — wolf pups, rats, peacocks, raccoons, porcupines, snakes, crocodiles and foxes, all jammed side-by-side in flimsy cages awaiting their own slaughter, making it easy for zoonotic diseases to leap from species to species and from animals to humans."

(2) Poor regulation. Chinese food safety standards are essentially non-existent. According to CNN in 2015, nearly "half of Chinese food-processing plants fail to meet internationally acceptable standards." Fraud is common. Food labeled organic and exported to the U.S. is often not actually organic. In 2007, there was a massive recall of pet food made in China because it was contaminated with melamine.

(3) Coverups. China has a long history of covering up infectious disease epidemics, such as HIV and SARS. China wanted to shed this reputation, and at one point, the government warned that anyone who covered up SARS-CoV-2 would be "nailed on the pillar of shame for eternity." That must have been an inside joke. Reverting to true form, whistleblowers were silenced. And we now know that China covered up the coronavirus outbreak for at least three weeks.

(4) Global disinformation campaigns. Worse than a coverup, China is now trying to re-write history. ProPublica reports that thousands of fake or hijacked Twitter accounts spread disinformation and attack the Chinese government's political opponents. One official blamed the outbreak on the U.S. military. This is all part of a coordinated effort to deflect blame.

It's time for the world to face reality: On the global stage, China is at best criminally negligent and at worst a malevolent force. As Shadi Hamid, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, wrote for The Atlantic: "[T]he relationship with China cannot and should not go back to normal."

Source: Coronavirus: Our Relationship With China Should Never Go Back To Normal

 
As of 4/6/2020, 6:22:48 AM, about 0.103% of the U.S. population (337,933 people) is confirmed to have contracted the CoViD-19 virus.

Of the 337,933 people in the U.S. who are known to have contracted the virus, 9,654 have died, and 17,582 have recovered. This means that in the U.S., the death/recovery ratio is about 177 deaths for 323 recoveries.

That's over a third, folks (35.4%). If you are in the U.S., and you get the virus, there is a 1 in 3 chance you will die.

Source: This Johns Hopkins University Website.

The more important part is the question of what is the status of the other 310,697 people who were found positive for the virus but currently status unknown as to death/recovery. It is estimated that around 50% of those infected are asymptomatic. So that would mean that the number of infected in the U.S. might be around 800,000 at the moment and around half show little to no symptoms at all.

Give it a few weeks and we will have a better idea of mortality rate:



The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has begun conducting antibody tests of three different groups to accurately measure the total number infected with coronavirus, including asymptomatic cases.

The surveys come after the Food and Drug Administration announced last week that it had authorized the first coronavirus serology test, which detects any antibodies produced by the immune system in response to the virus. The test is produced by Cellex Inc.

“Based on the totality of scientific evidence available to FDA, it is reasonable to believe that your [Cellex Inc.’s] product may be effective in diagnosing COVID-19,” the agency wrote in its authorization. “The known and potential benefits of your product when used for diagnosing COVID-19, outweigh the known and potential risks of your product.”

The CDC’s intention is to identify people who have recovered from infection and are to keep some level of protection from reinfection — important criteria for allowing people to go back to work. It is targeting people who weren’t diagnosed with coronavirus, despite living in hot spots, as well as people from other areas around the country and certain exposed groups — including health-care workers — to test the overall level of virus spread. Some epidemiologists have raised the possibility that far more people have asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 than has been recorded.

Source: CDC Using Antibody Tests to Gauge Number of Asymptomatic Coronavirus Cases

Last edited by jimmy m on 06 Apr 2020, 9:58 am, edited 1 time in total.

The mortality rate amongst those in the United States who have tested positive is a bit under 3%. By and large, especially in large urban areas with a higher percentage of positive results, only people with relatively severe symptoms are tested.

About 1 in 200 people in the United States have been tested.

If you have no underlying conditions, according to NYC figures, you are very unlikely to die.

The overall death rate in NYC, including those with underlying conditions (who make up more than 90% of the deaths) is 3.75%, based on 2,400 deaths out of 64,000 positive test results within NYC.

Sources: Worldometer, www1.nyc.gov

If you are under 44 years of age, and have no underlying conditions, you are extremely unlikely to die, even if you are hospitalized.

Even if you are over 70, and have no underlying conditions, you are still very unlikely to die from this condition.

The amount of people who have been discharged from hospitals within NYC is about the same as people who are presently hospitalized.

Last edited by kraftiekortie on 06 Apr 2020, 10:27 am, edited 1 time in total.

Biotech Gilead Sciences has given an update on how its drug remdesivir, used to treat Ebola patients, is also being used in the battle against coronavirus. The antiviral, which is awaiting regulatory approval as a coronavirus treatment, is one of a number of drugs in the spotlight as the U.S. scrambles to contain the pandemic. Remdesivir is being used in a number of clinical trials across the globe. As America grapples with a growing number of coronavirus cases, demand for experimental drugs such as remdesivir has spiked.

Last month, Gilead announced changes to its treatment program. The company implemented an “expanded access” program in an effort to enable hospitals and physicians to apply for emergency use of remdesivir for multiple severely ill patients at a time. The prior “compassionate use” program is now designated for children and pregnant women.

Gilead CEO Daniel O’Day said that the company has been ramping up remdesivir production, a process that requires specialized chemistry and multiple chain reactions. “It also calls for scarce raw materials as well as sterile manufacturing capabilities with limited global capacity, which are needed to make finished vials ready for administration to patients,” he said. “Working within these parameters, our teams have found multiple ways of accelerating production. These include process improvements that cut production times.”

As a result, Gilead has reduced its end-to-end manufacturing timeline from approximately a year to around six months. “In the space of two months, we have significantly increased our available supply of remdesivir using the inventory of active pharmaceutical ingredients we already had on hand,” O’Day said. “Our existing supply, including finished product ready for distribution as well as investigational medicine in the final stages of production, amounts to 1.5 million individual doses. Depending on the optimal duration of treatment, which is something we are studying in clinical trials, this supply could equate to well over 140,000 treatment courses for patients.”

“Gilead is providing the entirety of this existing supply at no cost, to treat patients with the most severe symptoms of COVID-19,” he added. “The 1.5 million individual doses are available for compassionate use, expanded access and clinical trials and will be donated for broader distribution following any potential future regulatory authorizations. These doses are for treating patients with severe symptoms, through daily intravenous infusions in a hospital setting.”

O’Day said that thousands of patients with COVID-19 are already involved in remdesivir clinical trials across the globe.

Over the coming months, the company plans to increase its supplies of remdesivir as raw materials with long lead times become available for manufacture. “We have set an ambitious goal of producing more than 500,000 treatment courses by October and more than 1 million treatment courses by the end of this year,” O’Day said.

Source: Gilead gives update on experimental coronavirus treatment

Yep. I’ve seen this drug mentioned in COVID-19 treatment......perhaps even by Jimmy himself a few weeks ago.

Although New York Governor Cuomo indicated that New York City appears like it might be over the hump there is at least one doctor with feet on the ground that disagrees, Dr. Stuart Ditchek. Dr. Ditchek, with Maimonides Medical Center in Brooklyn and the team leader for the New York Pandemic Response Working Group. So it is productive to listen to both perspectives.

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced on Sunday that New York State has seen its first drop in daily coronavirus deaths. He added that New York also experienced a slight drop in intensive care admissions and the number of patients who need breathing tubes inserted. The hospital discharge rate is "way up" he said, calling it "great news."

Dr. Ditchek said Monday, “I don't agree with that assessment,” adding that “I don't see that in the hospitals here.” He said that he thinks the data that comes in through the state, which is “then funneled up to the federal level,” is “often flawed especially during a crisis where our health care system potentially can collapse.”

“I can tell you that many patients in the Brooklyn area have been dying at home or have been found dead at home,” Ditchek said. “The hospitals are overwhelmed so the reporting systems may not be what you believe.” He also said that the emergency rooms have been full. “I was in Maimonides last night and we have patients who were waiting to get upstairs in large numbers because the ICU beds are full,” he explained.

Ditchek said, hospitals have not seen these much-discussed ventilators. “We are not seeing this distribution that we keep hearing about and we are drowning here in Brooklyn," he said Monday. He went on to say that doctors are “coming up with other solutions” such as using CPAP Machines. “We’ve actually worked with a company now that's modifying CPAP Machines into very, very functional and useful brand new invasive ventilators. We are getting those out,” Ditchek said, adding that “we are working with a company now that's getting them to hospitals as early as late next week.” “We’re on our own at this point and we are working as such,” he added.

Source: NY doctor says he doesn't agree with Cuomo's assessment that coronavirus deaths are dropping

So I think this is worth keeping an eye on. Metrics can deceive unless they are handled very carefully.

Another potential therapy is being investigated. The treatment combines nebulizer heparin which is inhaled and N-Acetylcysteine. Atossa Therapeutics is leading a clinical trial that may improve pulmonary function in COVID-19 patients.

A couple of things that stuck me listening to the news this morning.

Indefinite lockdowns seem primarily based on Dr. Fauci's prediction models.

All the experts finally agreed, after all this time, that everyone should be wearing a mask. I mean it took them what a month just to unanimously figure out the face mask issue. And I am supposed to have complete faith in them?

Face masks are helpful ... even if they are only as good as chicken soup is for a cold, they'll at least help you believe that you are doing something to stay healthy.

As for those doctors taking so long ... someone once made a quote about diplomacy and the prolongation of a crisis...

Chicken soup is great for colds - it's full of antibiotics

It shows me the experts don't know what they are talking about.

Like the experts saying that adults over whatever age should take aspirin daily for a couple of decades because it was heart healthy. I think even the American Heart Association recommend it. Then they decide it is actually bad for you to take aspirin daily and are now telling people to avoid aspirin.

And there are umpteen similar examples of the experts doing a 180 on all sorts of things.