Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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"Daily UK deaths from Covid-19 are projected to peak at 2,932 on 17 April

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle predicts 66,000 UK deaths from Covid-19 by August, with a peak of nearly 3,000 a day, based on a steep climb in daily deaths early in the outbreak.

The IHME modelling forecasts that by 4 August the UK will see a total of 66,314 deaths – an average taken from a large estimate range of between 14,572 and 219,211 deaths, indicating the uncertainties around it."


So the prediction is that 786 will climb to 3,000 deaths per day in 9 days.

I'll add the UK to my list.

Last edited by EzraS on 08 Apr 2020, 5:24 am, edited 1 time in total.

I don’t think it will get that high in the U.K.

Probably won’t get that high in the US, either.

How much does the US do daily testing compared to UK/France?

Testing is done at about half the rate of the US in both the U.K. and France.

What kind of test is it, multiple choice?

IQ test

^ and I just had a look at NHS England’s figures: there’s a reminder there that they are only listing folks who die in public hospitals.
Anyone who dies in England* of CV19 in a private hospital, care home or their own home isn’t being logged as a CV19 death.


*I don’t know whether this applies to Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland too.

I mean yesterday there was +33,331 new cases in the US alone, which is disastrous - but apparently the US is doing far more testing than other western countries hence the highest number.

I'm safe then.

Seriously though, maybe they should ask everyone to do the sniff test that some parts of military are using.
If you can't smell apple cider vinegar, you should get tested. Then again, that would probably lead to people buying out all the apple cider vinegar like they did with toilet paper.

Silly me, they are listing the # of tests here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The UK Office For National Statistics have been putting out the daily Covid-19 death figures 2 weeks after so they have time to ratify them and include all those that are not included in the Govt's daily announcements

I probably had a mild case of COVID19....and my sense of smell and taste is fine.

There are certainly people who have died at home of COVID19, and who are not included in the official statistics in NYC.

Nursing homes and other sorts of extended care facilities must record deaths and cause of death in NY....so those are part of the official statistics.

Even in the US, only about 1 in 160 have been tested.

Even in NY State, only about 1 in 60 have been tested.

By the statistics from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
the country with most tests/population are Faroe Islands with 105,458/million citizens.
That means, the world leaders in testing have tested 1/10 of their population - easier in less populous countries, of course.

So going by that we should tentatively regard UK government figures on the day as underestimating by at least a third...

I believe Gibraltar actually tested most of its residents.

Correction: they only tested 1 in 30 of their residents.

Last edited by kraftiekortie on 08 Apr 2020, 6:49 am, edited 1 time in total.