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Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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Karamazov
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08 Apr 2020, 6:17 am

kraftiekortie wrote:
I believe Gibraltar actually tested most of its residents.


Although there’s only just over 32,000 folks living there, they have a bit of an advantage on that one! :wink:

Although as a major centre of smuggling into Spain they do need to be vigilant: enhanced vulnerability + small population. 8O



magz
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08 Apr 2020, 6:19 am

kraftiekortie wrote:
I believe Gibraltar actually tested most of its residents.

According to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Gibraltar is third with 42,741/million.


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kraftiekortie
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08 Apr 2020, 6:19 am

Yet Gibraltar has a relatively low rate of infection.



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08 Apr 2020, 6:23 am

Karamazov wrote:
Biscuitman wrote:
The UK Office For National Statistics have been putting out the daily Covid-19 death figures 2 weeks after so they have time to ratify them and include all those that are not included in the Govt's daily announcements

Image


So going by that we should tentatively regard UK government figures on the day as underestimating by at least a third... 8O


More than that even.

It can't be easy for the Govt to gather together accurate stats every 24 hours so there is always going to be a ratification of them sometime afterwards, but the difference here is that the UK Govt's daily update only includes hospital deaths.

For clarity to anyone not in the UK - The Office For National Statistics is a Govt department, so this is not someone else outside of Govt putting these out to prove they are somehow wrong, these numbers are the Govt's numbers once they have had time to include everyone



kraftiekortie
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08 Apr 2020, 6:28 am

Even with all the unrecorded deaths, I feel, ultimately, that the mortality rate, including mild and asymptomatic cases, will wind up being under 1%.

1% would still be 10 times the rate of “regular” flu, thus meaning there were many excess deaths within this pandemic. Even 0.5% would yield many excess deaths.



Karamazov
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08 Apr 2020, 6:42 am

Biscuitman wrote:
It can't be easy for the Govt to gather together accurate stats every 24 hours so there is always going to be a ratification of them sometime afterwards, but the difference here is that the UK Govt's daily update only includes hospital deaths.

Virtually impossible is the impression I’ve got: and yes, daily figures are for guidance only and only list deaths within NHS care.
Quote:
For clarity to anyone not in the UK - The Office For National Statistics is a Govt department, so this is not someone else outside of Govt putting these out to prove they are somehow wrong, these numbers are the Govt's numbers once they have had time to include everyone

Yep, the department that checks most of the other departments’ homework for them.
Except the treasury: they’re checked by the Office for Budget Responsibility. :)



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08 Apr 2020, 7:28 am

kraftiekortie wrote:
Even with all the unrecorded deaths, I feel, ultimately, that the mortality rate, including mild and asymptomatic cases, will wind up being under 1%.

1% would still be 10 times the rate of “regular” flu, thus meaning there were many excess deaths within this pandemic. Even 0.5% would yield many excess deaths.

I frankly don't think the true mortality rate is 1%. It should be much lower. We also know for sure it's higher than seasonal flu (0.1%). Given the situation in Italy (there are signs of partial herd immunity, and where we do have initial numbers for excess deaths in some towns), I have estimated the true mortality rate at around 0.4%.


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08 Apr 2020, 7:33 am

Mask disinfection method endorsed by the government in Taiwan. Well, every family there has a rice cooker, which is not the case in the Western world. So, this is just informational.


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08 Apr 2020, 7:59 am

Poor children everywhere feeling bored and missing their classmates and teachers.
My son's teachers all put up videos for the class on Google Classroom and said hi etc. He was enthralled. I played and replayed them for him.
The other one asks every day to go to school (which is what he calls daycare). Then he pretends he is speaking yo his friends there and quotes things he has heard at daycare while playing. He is huge on echolalia and memorizes the day's conversations like scripts.
I feel sorry for kids (all ages) who live in apartment buildings as there is less freedom to play / go outside. At least with backyards or sidewalks in front of homes you feel safer and are allowed. In apartments they don't let you or people treat you meanly for venturing out (eg my sister's area) even if they are out too


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Karamazov
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08 Apr 2020, 8:07 am

^ Aye, my wife is currently giving six year old nephew his daily drawing lesson over Skype (ghosts and zombies today): he’s stuck in the top floor of a block of flats in south London poor mite. :(
No going out at all for him because sister-in-law has had it (she’s had four days without symptoms now though... hopefully :fingerscrossed: )

I’ll be doing him a few basic guitar lessons in due course. :)



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08 Apr 2020, 8:12 am

blooiejagwa wrote:
Poor children everywhere feeling bored and missing their classmates and teachers.
My son's teachers all put up videos for the class on Google Classroom and said hi etc. He was enthralled. I played and replayed them for him.
The other one asks every day to go to school (which is what he calls daycare). Then he pretends he is speaking yo his friends there and quotes things he has heard at daycare while playing. He is huge on echolalia and memorizes the day's conversations like scripts.
I feel sorry for kids (all ages) who live in apartment buildings as there is less freedom to play / go outside. At least with backyards or sidewalks in front of homes you feel safer and are allowed. In apartments they don't let you or people treat you meanly for venturing out (eg my sister's area) even if they are out too


There is still a lot to do while in door.



Biscuitman
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08 Apr 2020, 8:17 am

Image



blooiejagwa
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08 Apr 2020, 8:31 am

Bravo5150 wrote:
blooiejagwa wrote:
Poor children everywhere feeling bored and missing their classmates and teachers.
My son's teachers all put up videos for the class on Google Classroom and said hi etc. He was enthralled. I played and replayed them for him.
The other one asks every day to go to school (which is what he calls daycare). Then he pretends he is speaking yo his friends there and quotes things he has heard at daycare while playing. He is huge on echolalia and memorizes the day's conversations like scripts.
I feel sorry for kids (all ages) who live in apartment buildings as there is less freedom to play / go outside. At least with backyards or sidewalks in front of homes you feel safer and are allowed. In apartments they don't let you or people treat you meanly for venturing out (eg my sister's area) even if they are out too


There is still a lot to do while in door.


Yes of course but it's natural for kids to want to go out especially as the weather warms up and the sun makes it all look wonderful.. to the playground (all closed here and u get fined if u go) as the younger keeps asking ...
Missing friends and being around lots of children.. Missing teachers.


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08 Apr 2020, 8:32 am

My wife and I are getting tested tomorrow.



blooiejagwa
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08 Apr 2020, 8:32 am

Karamazov wrote:
^ Aye, my wife is currently giving six year old nephew his daily drawing lesson over Skype (ghosts and zombies today): he’s stuck in the top floor of a block of flats in south London poor mite. :(
No going out at all for him because sister-in-law has had it (she’s had four days without symptoms now though... hopefully :fingerscrossed: )

I’ll be doing him a few basic guitar lessons in due course. :)


You guys really pitched in to make it bearable huh.. Thumbs up :mrgreen:


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08 Apr 2020, 8:41 am

kraftiekortie wrote:
Even with all the unrecorded deaths, I feel, ultimately, that the mortality rate, including mild and asymptomatic cases, will wind up being under 1%.

1% would still be 10 times the rate of “regular” flu, thus meaning there were many excess deaths within this pandemic. Even 0.5% would yield many excess deaths.


Ironically deaths caused by traffic accidents has probably dropped significantly.