Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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Based on what I just heard on the morning news, it is been determined that Washington State has flattened the curve.

Fauci: 'Looks like' US deaths will be lower than original projection

JimmyM mentioned baby chicks being bought up.Its happening at the hatcheries in MO.I was going to get a few new ones for my flock.I might need to get a move on before they are all spoke for.
Prepare for the great salmonella outbreak.All those kids handling chicks.
I hope people aren’t impulse purchasing the chicks.I raise poultry and they take some care at first.
Heat lamps etc..
The family cat and dog might also be happy to see those baby chicks.
nom nom nom

We should just bow like in Asia.

Much of the U.S. response to the coronavirus pandemic relied on the accuracy of coronavirus models. Many of these models were generated by the IHME. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global health research center at the University of Washington. The projection of the number of U.S. deaths from the coronavirus has shifted downward rather dramatically very quickly.

Initial projections of a 100,000 to 200,000 deaths.
As of 2 April - projected cumulative deaths = 93,531 deaths
As of 5 April - projected cumulative deaths = 81,766 deaths
As of 7 April - Cumulative death totals (US) projected by August 4, 2020 = 60,415 deaths



The decision to implement stay at home orders in the U.S. were driven by these models. If the model's projections are wrong, then policy decisions derived from these model projections will be poor. (Both Dr. Debbie Birx and fellow task-force member Dr. Anthony Fauci said last week that the country could face between 100,000 and 200,000 total deaths from the pandemic, regardless of whether Americans continue to comply with the most stringent social distancing guidelines.)

A model's accuracy is only as good as the assumptions that are incorporated into the model. In this case one important variable was left out. That variable was the weather. More specifically the indoor relative humidity which is driven in higher latitude (>35° N) environments by outdoor temperature. As the northern hemisphere transitioned out of winter into spring, humidity levels rose into the ideal range of 40% -60% RH which decreased the ability of the coronavirus to infect new hosts.



The COVID-19 coronavirus is emulating the winter influenza virus. The influenza appears in the late Fall and early Winter when humidity levels fall and disappear in the Spring when humidity levels rise again. That is why the IHME models are off.

At the moment the Southern Hemisphere is minimally affected by the virus. But as they slide into their late fall/winter, areas of higher latitude (>35° S), will become very vulnerable for the spread of this infection. Those regions will need to take extra precautions to keep this virus under control. STAY ALIVE, HUMIDIFY