Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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EzraS
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11 Apr 2020, 5:11 am

Darmok wrote:

EzraS wrote:

I won't be shocked if it turns out to be less and less dangerous over time.

According to an eminent PhD, that is correct.

kraftiekortie
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11 Apr 2020, 6:47 am

This “less dangerous” notion might apply to most parts of the US....but it certainly doesn’t apply to the New York City area.

rowan_nichol
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11 Apr 2020, 7:06 am

Indeed Kraftie,
I note the pattern in the UK with London having the highest number of cases by a significant margin. Cities are not good news, with lots of people in not much space, lots of places to being even closer proximity such as pubs and bars (except at times like these and current infection control measures) added to the mix are cramped and expensive housing putting people into close proximity as well

EzraS
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11 Apr 2020, 7:22 am

Is it overall cases that are of concern, or rather the serious or critical cases?

kraftiekortie
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11 Apr 2020, 7:23 am

The severe cases. The fatal cases.

kraftiekortie
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11 Apr 2020, 7:26 am

True, Rowan. Any urban area.

Detroit is getting it in the gut. Chicago, too. New Orleans.

Other urban areas in the US and Western Europe.

EzraS
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11 Apr 2020, 7:31 am

kraftiekortie wrote:

The severe cases. The fatal cases.

Based on some of the articles that jimmy m posted, do you give any credence to reports that the some of the critical cases aren't as critical as was first made out? And regarding fatalities that covid19 as the cause of death is being too broadly applied?

kraftiekortie
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11 Apr 2020, 7:36 am

I believe, sometimes, that other causes of death were replaced by a positive COVID19 test, thus erroneously making COVID19 the primary cause of death.

But there were home deaths which haven’t been officially recorded.

It is 100% certain that there have been excess deaths in New York City during March and April.

Last edited by kraftiekortie on 11 Apr 2020, 7:37 am, edited 1 time in total.

jimmy m
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11 Apr 2020, 7:36 am

cyberdad wrote:

Before this thread moves off on another tangent...

Every country can’t stay in lockdown forever, and in order for life to return to normal, there are only two ways that the virus can be defeated.
Either a vaccine is found or the country develops “herd immunity” which means about 60 per cent of the population need to be infected.

For Australia that's 15 million people and for the US that's 197 million.....how realistic is this?

or #3 you find an effective treatment that prevents the 1% to 2% of the population who is elderly with co-morbidities from passing away from this disease.

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blooiejagwa
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11 Apr 2020, 7:40 am

In our province confirmed deaths from hospitalized patients with it jumped to 100 more, in the past few days (since I last checked).

I feel bad for my sister as she works downtown, and she has to worry about it. She wanted me to visit her yesterday and stay over today. They even made a guest bedroom and study space for me.

But I don't want to be near her since she actually has a client with COVID-19....and I don't want to transfer it to a king, nor his brother...nor the nurses.

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kraftiekortie
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11 Apr 2020, 7:41 am

Australia, to their credit, got off comparatively scot-free.

I doubt that 60% of the population was exposed to COVID19.

I would say at least 60% were exposed in NYC—but not in the US as a whole. Only in places with substantial international tourism.

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11 Apr 2020, 7:41 am

Amity wrote:

jimmy m wrote:

This is interesting!

Countries that do not have a BCG vaccination policy saw ten times greater incidence of and mortality from Covid-19, compared with those who do, a forthcoming study from medical researchers in the US and UK, which analysed data from 178 countries, has found.

BCG, or Bacillus Calmette-Guérin, is a vaccine for tuberculosis and is administered at birth in countries that have historically suffered from the disease, such as India. Many rich nations, such as the US, Italy and Holland, have never had a universal BCG vaccination policy.

The UK stopped administering BCG in 2005 and in Ireland we stopped in 2015 due to supply issues, I read about this a few days ago and wondered if the higher numbers of younger children affected by C19 is related to the lack of the BCG inoculation in recent years.
It does seem promising
Irish Times

Quote:

US virologist Robert Gallo of the Institute of Human Virology in Maryland has confirmed he is working with a team who will make an announcement shortly that will have “a major effect” on global efforts to tackle Covid-19.

Good Point!

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EzraS
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11 Apr 2020, 7:42 am

kraftiekortie wrote:

Certain in what way?

blooiejagwa
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11 Apr 2020, 7:42 am

jimmy m wrote:

cyberdad wrote:

or #3 you find an effective treatment that prevents the 1% to 2% of the population who is elderly with co-morbidities from passing away from this disease.

What was the antibody treatment that was being discussed earlier? Is it confirmed, that it is effective and exists, or is it just theoretical? The thing where they said they can engineer it.

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kraftiekortie
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11 Apr 2020, 7:43 am

Canada, as a whole, has had about 450 deaths.

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11 Apr 2020, 7:46 am

kraftiekortie wrote:

Canada, as a whole, has had about 450 deaths.

yeah..

559 now

but I trust their numbers more than Italy, for Ontario at least, because I know how they are diagnosing it to a painful degree of only the most severe cases, and hospitalizing only the most severe ones and recording only hospital deaths from it (complications related directly to it).

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