Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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I hope it’s a penny whistle.

This is a time when it is considered safer to not hold onto banisters and handrails.

I suspect the exact opposite. Several pages back on page 308 of this thread, I showed what happened in Wuhan after they lifted the quarantine. Social distancing was immediately out the window.

Here are the photos.



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Nothing but wall to wall people. People want to be free. They are tired of being cooped up. They just want to return to normal life.

Agreed!

That is what is happening.

Well, we can understand how infectivity may be challenging to quantify, but surely death is easier – you are either alive or dead, a binary option. The difficulty in quantifying death begins the moment after all vital signs go to zero. Because death can be the result of a criminal act, it comes with regulations, the most important being that a physician must both certify and identify the reasons for death.



In the case of COVID-19, a certificate might state that the immediate cause was viral pneumonia due to Coronavirus, along with antecedent conditions, co-morbidities, like hypertension and coronary artery disease. There is a 216-page manual [2], that determines which among those immediate and antecedent causes is finally reported as the “cause of death.” That is usually a good thing because, for deaths in large hospitals, the duty to certify often falls to the first-year resident, who knows the least about any given patient. In community hospitals, it falls to the attending physician, and for deaths at home, to the patient’s primary care physician; but while they know the patient’s history better, it would be a rare case when they were specifically trained in completing a death certificate. And I seriously doubt that any physician, other than a pathologist who studies dead patients, has even a nodding acquaintance with that 216-page manual.

To further simplify the attribution of death in the time of pandemic, Italy’s overwhelmed health system decided that any deaths in the hospital were attributed to COVID-19. That, of course, increases the false-positive reports, increasing the deaths. It is balanced to some unknown degree by the physicians certifying deaths at home as not being due to COVID-19, the false negatives. This week, as reported by the New York Post, our federal government has opted for the same path, all deaths involving COVID-19 are attributable to COVID-19. As in Italy, it will mean higher death rates.

If you look at the current CDC data, you will find that a COVID-19 death does not require laboratory evidence, it is sufficient that “the certifier suspects COVID-19 or determines it was likely.” Another important limitation noted is this provisional information is incomplete, and “the level of completeness varies by jurisdiction, week, decedent’s age, and cause of death. … It is important to note that the true levels of completeness are unknown, and the estimates provided here are only a proxy.” It has taken, in the past, up to 2 months to gather and verify 72% of pneumonia deaths.

Source: [url=https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/04/13/covid-19’s-math-why-dont-numbers-add-14711]COVID-19’S Math: Why Don't The Numbers Add Up?[/url]

That will actually probably be true of my town. Most likely the first hockey game or whatever at the arena will have downtown packed.

They are still saying May 4th for Washington State.

I think if enough people keep wearing masks until the end of June, it should be alright.

Last edited by EzraS on 15 Apr 2020, 9:50 am, edited 1 time in total.

A wee bit of good news,ex’s cousin was tested and is negative.Really good news for her twin.

If one twin gets it does the other one get it automatically?

Congrats on the negative test.

Good news indeed!

Unfortunately, I must inform you that Penthouse is fake news.

Yahoo! Is she feeling better, regardless?

Los Angeles, California will require face masks for all essential errands.

New York governor will issue executive order requiring a mask or face covering in public.

I wonder how the ppl feel who regularly attend clubs and festivals filled with gyrating bodies and loud music and disorienting flashes of lights.
.Probably like a drug addict going cold turkey.

Almost all people are wearing masks, anyway, here in NYC.

Here covering face in public will be obligatory starting tomorrow.
My husband is tinkering himself a plague-doctor-style beak :>

Saturday Night Fever

Last edited by EzraS on 15 Apr 2020, 1:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.