Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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Magna
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16 Apr 2020, 8:55 am

While a vaccine would be celebrated by everyone, it's certainly possible that this virus will mutate in ways that prevent a vaccine from being an effective preventative. I personally think it's good to know that scientists are pouring a lot of effort in vaccine research but it might end up being futile.

My fears related to this virus at this point and which I hope do NOT come to fruition include:

>Vaccine development attempts are not successful and the virus ends up being a perennial menace.
>We find that it ends up remaining viable in humans and ends up flaring up multiple times like herpes/remains in the body like HIV.
>Tying in with the bullet point above, we find that those infected remain perpetual carriers and continue to shed the virus to those who aren't infected even by the simple act of respiration.
>If the above points were true, society would be forever changed. Masks in public always and for everyone. Not just during this pandemic.
>The infected being treated by the rest of society like pariahs, the new lepers.

Again, I hope NONE of those things come to pass.

Last edited by Magna on 16 Apr 2020, 9:29 am, edited 1 time in total.

QuantumChemist
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16 Apr 2020, 9:19 am

Magna wrote:

Not to scare you, but there exists the possibility that the virus could become combinational with another virus. You could think of it as a “One, Two” knockout punch to those effected by them. The nasty part is that you do not have to be infected by both at the same time for this to happen. (But, having both combine to make a super virus could also happen.)

The second virus could interact with the anti-bodies formed from exposure to the first virus and cause it to mutate to a more dangerous form inside the body. I can see how this can be specifically engineered to wipe out select targets with the second virus being a modified cold strain. If you did not contact the first virus, at worst you would get a cold from the second virus. That one would be hard to track back to the source.

I have explored this topic extensively with my dark side of my personality years ago and that is just the tip of the iceberg on what can be done. Some things are better left alone. I wish I would have followed that advice.

ASPartOfMe
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16 Apr 2020, 10:30 am

The wide range of symptoms makes me wonder if we are not already dealing with combinational virus. If you want to be paranoid that would be the type of thing that they would be experimenting with in a lab.

The vaccine very well might be partially effective or not effective due constant mutations. See flu vaccines

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Magna
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16 Apr 2020, 10:50 am

ASPartOfMe wrote:

I agree that the wide variety of symptoms is bizarre. For example, Spanish physicians have reported that there have been numerous instances in infected patients who display a seemingly unrelated symptom of red/purple lesions on their feet and toes. The patients who have exhibited this symptom have been younger patients. Foot/toe lesions for a SARS virus.

blooiejagwa
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16 Apr 2020, 11:58 am

Pepe wrote:

EzraS wrote:

magz wrote:

Darmok wrote:

This is hardly surprising. But it adds to the idea that people who aren't in high-risk groups -- the very old, people with pre-existing conditions, public transport riders, etc. -- are pretty low risk.

MIT study: Subways a ‘major disseminator’ of coronavirus in NYC

A new study argues that city subways and buses were a “major disseminator” of the coronavirus in the Big Apple.

The paper, by MIT economics professor and physician Jeffrey Harris, points to a parallel between high ridership “and the rapid, exponential surge in infections” in the first two weeks of March — when the subways were still packed with up to 5 million riders per day — as well as between turnstile entries and virus hotspots.

“New York City’s multitentacled subway system was a major disseminator — if not the principal transmission vehicle — of coronavirus infection during the initial takeoff of the massive epidemic,” argues Harris, who works as a physician in Massachusetts.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/15/mit-study ... us-in-nyc/

No sh!t, Sherlock.

How rude.

She Is Polish.
She is allowed.

I guess her manners are polished

BOOM TISH

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ImagineDragons
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16 Apr 2020, 2:24 pm

QuantumChemist wrote:

Magna wrote:

Microbiologists have already confirmed that there’s already two slightly different strains of COV 19 as the ‘virus’ that arrived and then swept through Italy recently was slightly different from the ‘virus’ that left China ...

Darmok
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16 Apr 2020, 3:33 pm

Contrast:

North Dakota governor issues guidelines to reopen state May 1
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-north-dakota-idUSKCN21Y26A

NYC Mayor Deblasio tells Bill Hemmer that the city will start to reopen in July or August at the earliest
https://twitter.com/JoeConchaTV/status/1250865099243433985

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vermontsavant
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16 Apr 2020, 3:53 pm

I have heard that coronavirus compromises the immune system like HIV and also that the virus may stay in people for life after they get it even if they recover.

Does anybody know if these things are true?

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jimmy m
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16 Apr 2020, 4:41 pm

An antiparasitic drug sometimes used to treat head lice has undergone preliminary studies for use in the fight against the coronavirus — and has shown promising results, according to reports.

While recent reports have focused on the anti-malarial hydroxychloroquine as a possible miracle treatment, experts have expressed cautious optimism that ivermectin also could be used for COVID-19, ABC News reported.

“Finding a safe, affordable, readily available therapy like ivermectin, if it proves effective with rigorous evaluation, has the potential to save countless lives,” Dr. Nirav Shah, an infectious disease specialist at the NorthShore University HealthSystem, told the network.

Ivermectin — which was developed in the 1970s and 1980s — was first used to treat tiny roundworms called nematodes in cattle, then for river blindness in humans, and most recently to rid people of head lice, ABC News reported.

The drug’s antiparasitic prowess has landed it on the World Health Organization’s list of essential medicines.

And recently, a team of Australian scientists has studied ivermectin in vitro in connection with the coronavirus pandemic.

“We found that even a single dose could essentially remove all viral RNA by 48 hours and that even at 24 hours, there was a really significant reduction in it,” Dr. Kylie Wagstaff, the leader of the team from Melbourne’s Monash Biomedicine Discovery Institute, told ABC.

Although the coronavirus is not a parasite, experts suggest that ivermectin basically treats it like one, blocking the viral RNA — ribonucleic acid — from invading healthy cells and giving the immune system more time to fight off the illness.

The next step, according to the researchers, is “to determine the correct human dosage — ensuring the doses shown to effectively treat the virus in vitro are safe for humans.”

Shah cautioned that “there are numerous examples of drugs with in vitro activity not proving effective in human studies.”

But he added: “That being said, given there are no proven therapies against COVID-19 to date and we are in the midst of a pandemic, drugs that show promise in early in vitro or observational studies such as ivermectin should be rigorously evaluated to understand safety and effectiveness.”

Another study conducted by researchers at the University of Utah found that “critically ill patients with lung injury requiring mechanical ventilation may benefit from administration of ivermectin,” ABC News reported.

“We noted a lower mortality and reduced health care resource use in those treated with ivermectin,” wrote lead author Dr. Amit Patel.

And at Broward Health Medical Center in Florida, Dr. Jean-Jacques Rajter has already been using ivermectin in addition to hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin and zinc sulfate to treat his COVID-19 patients, according to NBC Miami.

“If we get to these people early, and what I mean by that is if their oxygen requirements are less than 50 percent, I’ve had nearly a 100 percent response rate, they all improve, if they’re on more oxygen than that, then it becomes a little more varied, some people, they don’t respond anymore because they are too far advanced,” Rajter told the outlet.

The doctor is in the process of publishing a scientific paper, but it could take weeks for the findings to be publicized.

“But if I wait, every day that goes by is another day when lots and lots of people get very sick, go to ICU, many of them die and that could theoretically even be preventable and that’s why I thought it was so critically important to get this information out there,” he said.

His wife, Dr. Juliana Cepelowicz-Rajter, also a pulmonologist, said: “More studies need to be conducted. We haven’t had any ill effects from it and it’s readily available, we have some patients who are pretty advanced, not yet intubated, and even those, in 12 hours, they showed a significant improvement.”

On Monday, Rajter received approval from Broward Health to use his protocol in all of their hospitals.

Source: A head lice drug to beat coronavirus? Researchers reportedly exploring potential

A variety of treatment options for COVID19 are being assessed. This is a good approach. If you have a serious problem, throw everything at it including the kitchen sink and see what sticks. Don't put all you eggs in one basket.

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A very unique plan. As Dr. Paul Thompson wrote, "This is the very best paper on the virus I have ever seen."

Last edited by jimmy m on 16 Apr 2020, 4:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Pepe
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16 Apr 2020, 4:42 pm

kraftiekortie wrote:

Magz was saying “no s**t, Sherlock” to the obvious notion that the subways of New York were a main place where COVID19 was spread.

No shite.

Darmok
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16 Apr 2020, 4:47 pm

jimmy m wrote:

“Finding a safe, affordable, readily available therapy like ivermectin, if it proves effective with rigorous evaluation, has the potential to save countless lives,” Dr. Nirav Shah, an infectious disease specialist at the NorthShore University HealthSystem, told the network.

I heard about this one a few days ago and even checked to see if there was any on sale in the pet section of the supermarket. No luck. (Had to settle for another bottle of fish tank cleaner instead......)

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ASPartOfMe
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16 Apr 2020, 4:48 pm

Police find 18 bodies in 'makeshift' facility at New Jersey nursing home; state attorney general to investigate

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Gov. Phil Murphy said Thursday that he directed state law enforcement to look into a nursing home where police found 18 bodies in what he said was a "makeshift" facility.

Police found five bodies on Easter Sunday after receiving tips and found 13 Monday in a holding area after receiving a call about a body stored in a shed at the Andover Rehabilitation and Subacute Care I and II.

State officials said on Thursday that a total of 35 residents had died at the home, which is made up of two separate buildings, since the end of March, with 19 of of those deaths linked to COVID-19. The home is the state's largest long-term care facility with almost 700 beds and more than 500 residents.

Murphy said he was "heartbroken" about reports of deaths at the facility and "outraged that bodies of the dead were piling up in a makeshift facility." He said he "asked the state attorney general to look into the matter," along with state health officials. Such a case, he said, "shakes you to your bones."

The governor said the State Attorney General's Office would do review all long-term facilities that have had a "disproportionate number of deaths during the COVID outbreak."

The state Health Department sent a team of communicable disease experts to the facility to assist staff members and residents, the governor said.

State Health Commissioner Judith Persichilli said that in addition to the deaths, the Andover facility had 103 other residents who tested positive for COVID-19 and 133 more who had flu-like symptoms. She said 52 staffers had flu-like symptoms.

An owner of the facility, Chaim Sheinbaum, said in a statement that its staffing levels were "solid" with 12 nurses and 39 certified nursing assistants, which he indicated is about normal. He said that holiday and weekend "issues" combined with more deaths than is usual contributed to "a greater number of bodies in the facility's morgue."

He said that the room "ideally" holds four bodies at a time and has a maximum capacity of 12. He said it never held more than 15 bodies at a time.

One section of the facility — known as Andover Subacute and Rehab II — has had 23 complaints resulting in citations over the past three years, according to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. It was given a one-star rating, which means "much below average," on the Medicare website

A November 2019 inspection resulted in five citations, including one for a patient whose hip fracture was not diagnosed until 11 days after a fall. It was also cited in its most recent fire inspections for not having a proper emergency preparedness plan and for not having elevators that firefighters could control in the event of a fire.

Federal data shows that the facility's other building, Andover Subacute and Rehab I, fared better with a three-star rating. It had one cited deficiency earlier this year for failing to properly document a patient’s oxygen use, but the issue was corrected. It was cited in its most recent fire inspection for deficiencies with its automatic sprinkler system.

Persichilli said state officials were notified on Saturday that the Andover facility needed body bags and that 28 bodies were being stored there, leading to the initial investigation by a local health official. She said that five bodies were found at the facility — another three had been released earlier in the day — and the home appeared to be adequately staffed at the time. It was told to report daily to the health department.

After another report of bodies came in days later, she said, local health officials found that the facility was "short on staffing." She said that health department staff has been sent to Andover to monitor the facility "on a regular basis."

"We're not pleased with what is going on at the Andover facility," she said.

By Thursday, health and law enforcement officials had arranged for a refrigerator truck to be sent to the home to allow it to store bodies properly.

"Steps have been taken to adequately keep the remains of people who died at the facility," said Greg Mueller, Sussex County's First Assistant Prosecutor. He said that a refrigeration truck at the site would have adequate capacity, and that such trucks can store about 100 bodies.

Even as deaths mounted in the facility, the numbers weren't reflected in official counts. The Sussex County Division of Health said that Andover Township had a total of 22 reported deaths related to COVID-19 as of Wednesday.

The Andover Township police chief, Eric Danielson, said this week that the investigations were prompted by calls from staff members and family members to the county Sheriff's Department and to the police.

ASPartOfMe
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16 Apr 2020, 4:50 pm

New York and other East Coast states extend shutdown of nonessential businesses to May 15, Gov. Cuomo says

Quote:

New York and other East Coast states are extending their shutdown of nonessential businesses to May 15 as officials grapple with how to reopen parts of the economy without leading to a resurgence in coronavirus cases, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Thursday.

Cuomo announced the move at his daily briefing in Albany and via Twitter, saying “New York on PAUSE” will be extended in coordination with other states.

“We have to continue doing what we’re doing. I’d like to see that infection rate get down even more. The New York Pause policies, the close-down policies, will be extended in coordination with other states to May 15,” Cuomo said. The lockdown was previously scheduled to lift on April 30.

I need a coordinated action plan with the other states. So, one month, we’ll continue the close-down policies. What happens after then? I don’t know. We will see what the data shows,” Cuomo said. “I don’t want to project beyond that period.”

Cuomo didn’t specify if all or just some of those states will join in extending statewide quarantines. Delaware already shut down nonessential businesses to May 15, while New Jersey’s order was put in place “until further notice.” New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy announced shortly after at his daily press conference that the state’s schools would be closed until at least May 15.

“That means it will not be safe to reopen our schools or start sports back up for at least another four weeks,” Murphy said.

Coordinating with the other states doesn’t mean they’ll always be in lockstep, he said, “but we’ll talk through everything first and hopefully we’re not doing something that’s contradictory to another state at a minimum.”

Cuomo said the net change in coronavirus hospitalizations in the state fell Wednesday to its lowest level since the outbreak began. He said the number of intensive care admissions and intubations also saw a significant drop for the first time.

Pepe
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16 Apr 2020, 4:55 pm

jimmy m wrote:

So it seems that if the Chinese had developed a vaccine to immunized against COVID-19, they didn't share it with the Iranians or the North Koreans. And not many of its own people. Tightly controlled by the Chinese Military!

Look on the bright side.
If your hypothesis is true, and the ccp has a vaccine, the rest of the world will develop their own at some point.
I bet your left testicle on that. :mrgreen:

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16 Apr 2020, 4:59 pm

Magna wrote:

I have read somewhere that there is a tendency for viruses to mutate into a less harmful form.
I guess it could go either way when you consider most people have a mild case.

Pepe
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16 Apr 2020, 5:04 pm

blooiejagwa wrote:

Pepe wrote:

EzraS wrote:

magz wrote:

Darmok wrote:

No sh!t, Sherlock.

How rude.

She Is Polish.
She is allowed.

I guess her manners are polished

BOOM TISH

Or perhaps her rudeness is polished to the point of becoming acceptable. :mrgreen:

Nice catch on the Polish/polished pun.
I can't believe I missed it.
You can be my official backup. :mrgreen:

Darmok wrote:

jimmy m wrote:

Did you die agonisingly horribly?
Or just the run-of-the-mill, garden variety, horribly?

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