Mona Pereth wrote:
Reasonable comparisons can indeed be made between American aid to Ukraine and American aid to Afghan rebels back in the 1980's. But that particular U.S. intervention in Afghanistan was actually a resounding success from the U.S. point of view, i.e. the Soviet forces were indeed expelled from Afghanistan and the Soviet Union was weakened to the point of collapse. The only problem was, in Afghanistan, the rebels had an ideology that was at least as much anti-West as anti-Soviet, resulting eventually in the 9/11 attacks..
Let's take a hypothetical. If Putin backs down due to pressure from China or economic imperatives then it leaves Ukraine to
a) join NATO as a member state
b) create an anti-Russian state on Russia's border
c) elevate certain factions of the Ukrainian army who were absorbed from the Azov militia and other far right milita.
At some point in the future when war ceases, there will still continue border clashes in Russian held territories. When you take the points I make in a-c then the seeds for the next conflict will arise. I now make the comparison between Israel and Palestine. OR Northern Ireland and UK. From 1948 Each time one war ended another began,
This conflict will continue to cause chaos for the world combined with soaring oil, food and energy prices. While thete are those who are happy to pour trillions into Ukraine there are others concerned we are playing "Russian roulette" with a nuclear armed Rissian state. If nuclear weapons are activated then there will be no "winners".
My only hope is China might be able to secure some type of ceasefire with Putin but then CHina has its eyes on Taiwan so I am not sure whether there is a conflict of interest from their perspective.