Are we at the edge of another pandemic? H5N1

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I came across an interesting article today.

Scientists wary of bird flu pandemic 'unfolding in slow motion'

Scientists tracking the spread of bird flu are increasingly concerned that gaps in surveillance may keep them several steps behind a new pandemic, according to Reuters interviews with more than a dozen leading disease experts.

Many of them have been monitoring the new subtype of H5N1 avian flu in migratory birds since 2020. But the spread of the virus to 129 dairy herds in 12 U.S. states signals a change that could bring it closer to becoming transmissible between humans. Infections also have been found in other mammals, from alpacas to house cats.

"It almost seems like a pandemic unfolding in slow motion," said Scott Hensley, a professor of microbiology at the University of Pennsylvania. "Right now, the threat is pretty low ... but that could change in a heartbeat."

The earlier the warning of a jump to humans, the sooner global health officials can take steps to protect people by launching vaccine development, wide-scale testing and containment measures.

On 29 Jun 2024, 8:50 pm, I reported data derived from wastewater tracking. This information actually came from the following article in the Los Angeles Times.

Signs of avian flu found in San Francisco wastewater

It appears that San Francisco, California may be ground zero for H5N1 if it materializes. But other locations may not be far behind. For example, New York. Their leaders published an article today.

How New York is preparing for bird flu

And the department is on alert: It expanded wastewater surveillance and, as requested by the CDC, extended its influenza surveillance beyond the typical end of the regular respiratory illness season in May.

Should the need arise, the state-run Wadsworth Center Public Health Laboratory has sufficient capacity to test several hundred human H5N1 specimens daily. Supplemental funding and supplies are available from a national repository in the event of an emergency, so the state could expand its diagnostic capacity to tens of thousands of tests per day.

Hospitals play a key role in identifying patients with suspected emerging pathogens, but they have to contend with the lack of a readily available PCR test to detect the H5N1 subtype.

(What is PCR? This is a term used in COVID testing. PCR tests are the “gold standard” for COVID-19 tests. They are a type of nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT), which are more likely to detect the virus than antigen tests. H5N1 is a different virus then COVID. Will these test work for H5N1?)

Doom doom doomy doom dooooooom

I remember at the beginning of the COVID pandemic, everyone was watching events unfold on the evening news, and then very suddenly everyone realized COVID was a real threat. They didn't know what to do. They were in total chaos. They took many actions that did not really protect them. There was so much band information given out by the governments. People didn't know what to do. They followed the advice of their leaders and in many cases, they came down with COVID.

So yes, Doom, Doom, Doom, Doom.
But this time I am trying to get ahead of the chaos, because once it hits (if it hits), I will have a very detailed plan of action in place and maybe we can avoid the chaos.

From 2003 to 2019, about 860 people contracted the virus, according to global data from the World Health Organization. In the human cases, the death rate was 52 percent. Egypt, Indonesia and Vietnam accounted for 8 out of 10 cases during this period. But now this threat is headed our way.

A pandemic that thus far has shown a greater than 50% mortality rate should be taken seriously.

I have been watching for the latest update from the U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE reporting H5N1 in animals. But all updates of Detections of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Mammals have been quiet since last publication on 6/3/2024. This occurred just as the numbers exploded of H5N1 in mice and cats.

In my search for the latest data, I came across an article from the European Union and the European Economic Area (EU/EEA).

Avian flu: increased vigilance recommended

In recently updated surveillance guidance for the summer period, ECDC recommends lowering the threshold for testing for avian influenza in humans, including using a risk-based approach for exposed asymptomatic individuals. We also recommend testing for influenza all cases hospitalised due to symptoms compatible with avian influenza and to further investigate those influenza A-positive samples that are negative for seasonal influenza virus. Biosafety and personal protective measures in place at occupational and recreational sites with an increased risk of avian influenza remain crucial to minimise the risk of spillover events to humans. These protective measures should be complied with to the greatest extent possible.

So in other words, we should be conducting H5N1 test in humans NOW. The main threat is an asymptomatic strain of the virus. The threshold for beginning this type of testing should be lowered in order to stay on top of this threat. We need to minimize the risk of spillover events to humans.

Last week I traveled to Tennessee to visit my family. But my mind was still focused on mosquitoes. One day we visited a small water park. As I swam and floated upon the water, I noticed a mosquito in the water. It had landed in the water and died. Interesting. Why killed the mosquito? So I investigated. Many community swimming pools treat the water with chemicals such as Chlorine and/or Bromine. But the pool I was floating in was different. It was a salt water pool. So does salt water kill mosquitoes?

I spent around 10 years living in California. Much of this time I lived very near the coastline. I do not remember mosquitoes along the coast. When I went swimming in the ocean, I do not remember mosquitoes biting me while I was swimming. So maybe around 70% of the Earth covered by Ocean is a safe area for mosquito bites. And the salt water in the air along the coast may also provide some protection from mosquito bites. So if mosquitoes are the primary transmission agent for H5N1 from infected animals/humans to uninfected humans, then the salt spray along the ocean may provide a safe refuge in a H5N1 pandemic.

So I began to look a little deeper. According to the internet:

Water provides mosquitoes with a place to lay eggs, grow and develop through their water stages (egg, larval and pupal). After the airborne portion of their life cycle, females return to water to lay a new batch of fertile eggs. Female mosquitoes usually lay their eggs on the surface of water or in areas where water can rise, flood the eggs and stimulate them to hatch.

Because mosquito larvae cannot survive away from water, areas affected by an infestation should be combed for water sources. Water that has been stagnant for three days is a prime habitat for mosquitoes.

Where do mosquitoes lay their eggs? Mosquitoes prefer stagnant water within which to lay their eggs. They most commonly infest: Near the edge of Lakes and Ponds, Among Plants in Swamps and Marshes, Other wetland habitats that hold water. However, they are capable of thriving in a variety of locations and can successfully grow in numbers even when not in their natural habitat.

Mosquitoes will not usually lay eggs on moving water. Mosquito larvae are most often found on the shores of a lake. Carbon dioxide is one of the biggest attractants for mosquitoes. In fact, they can sense this gas from up to 35 meters (just under 115 feet) away!

If I apply this information to the H5N1 threat from mosquitoes, the following points come to the surface.
* Mosquitoes in the egg and larval stage, requires a habitat with stagnant water for approximately three days.
* Mosquitoes will not normally lay eggs on moving water.
* In general, ocean waters are constantly moving. They fail to provide a livable environment for mosquitoes in the early stages of their lives.

On my trip to Tennessee, I also learned something new. While I was visiting my daughter, we went out into an opened covered area (porch). As we relaxed outside, there was no mosquitoes. Why was this area protected? What was magical about this area?

It turns out that my daughter was using mosquito repellent (Thermacell) to drive away the mosquitoes. So what is this product? Well, it is Metofluthrin

According to Wikipedia, Metofluthrin is a pyrethroid used as an insect repellent.[1] The vapors of metofluthrin are highly effective and capable of repelling up to 97% of mosquitoes in field tests. Metofluthrin is used in a variety of consumer products, called emanators, for indoor and outdoor use. These products produce a vapor that protects an individual or area. Effectiveness is reduced by air movement. Metofluthrin is neurotoxic, and is not meant to be applied directly to human skin.

I have come to the conclusion that many experts have missed a very important point about mosquitoes. Mosquitoes can also sense human blood. I came across an interesting article that shows that mosquitoes use multiple means to detect their victims.

Mosquitoes searching for a meal of blood use a variety of clues to track down humans, including our body heat and the carbon dioxide in our breath. Now, research shows that a certain olfactory receptor in their antennae also serves as a detector of humans, responding to smelly chemicals in our sweat.

"We found a receptor for human sweat, and we found that acidic volatiles that come off of us are really key for mosquitoes to find us," says Matthew DeGennaro, a neurogeneticist at Florida International University in Miami.

"I think what's exciting about it is that finally we have evidence that there is some sort of pathway, in the sense of smell, that is required for mosquitoes to like us," says Lindy McBride, a scientist at Princeton University who studies mosquito behavior and was not part of the research team.

It's long been known that mosquitoes rely on multiple clues to target humans. First, a mosquito will sense exhaled carbon dioxide from a distance that can be more than 30 feet. "After the carbon dioxide," DeGennaro explains, "then it begins to sense human odor."

The mosquito follows this odor and, when it gets very close, starts to detect body heat. Once mosquitoes land on you, "they actually can taste your skin with their legs and then they look for a place to bite," DeGennaro says.

He and his colleagues genetically altered mosquitoes to block the activity of a specific olfactory receptor called Ir8a. The result was that female mosquitoes — which are the ones that suck blood — were no longer attracted to lactic acid, an important component of human sweat.

"But the thing is, mosquitoes smell in a couple of different ways," McBride says.

Disrupting any one single pathway isn't likely to prevent mosquitoes from biting us, (Laura) Duvall says. But understanding all the signals that the insects use could help "make better human mimics, which could be used to lure mosquitoes into a trap — and away from humans."

Larry Zwiebel, a biologist who studies insect olfaction and behavior at Vanderbilt University, says evolution has created a sensory system for mosquitoes that has lots of parts that overlap and interact to produce the most efficient human-seeking machine.

"The mosquito is looking for what is often called a coincidence detector," he says. "It's not just one signal, but many signals — all of which, when they coincide, provide the strongest degree of impulse to drive this behavior."

Source: How Mosquitoes Sniff Out Human Sweat To Find Us

So what point am I trying to make? Well, I believe that mosquitoes can also smell human blood. Our skin minimizes their ability to directly smell our blood. But if we provide them with an opening, if we have a bleed, they can sense the blood and it drives them absolutely wild. Fresh warm human blood right from our heart..

I have asserted that H5N1 is transmitted to humans through mosquito bites. (An infected animal/human is bitten by a mosquito. The infected mosquito bites a human and infects them with H5N1.) But now I will discuss another critical point - some people are more vulnerable then others to being bitten and becoming infected with H5N1.

Several weeks ago, I was working moving cement blocks to build a retaining wall behind my home. While I was working I accidentally dropped one heavy block on my leg. A few minutes later I did the same thing again and decided I should immediately stop working. I suffered a large bruise and was bleeding in several locations. So I went inside and rested for a day or two to allow the wound to heal. I cleaned and covered the wound with bandages. When I finally decided to begin work again on the project, something unusual happened. Within the space of 2 hours, I was attacked by around 50 mosquitoes. I never saw so many mosquito attacks in my entire life. Every couple minutes, I could see a mosquito buzz and fly away from my body. The only explanation that made any sense was that mosquitoes could sense my blood (my warm fresh blood) from my open wound. Fortunately, I had applied DEET, an insect repellent, to my arms and legs before I went outside and as a result, even though I was attacked 50 times, I WAS NOT BITTEN.

So the main point is that some people are more vulnerable then others to being bitten by mosquitoes and becoming infected with H5N1. So who are these very, very vulnerable people?

People who have open wounds in their skin. These include:

* People with accidental skin wounds.

* Narcotic drug users. Some narcotics such as heroin, cocaine, methamphetamines, and opioids are injected into the bloodstream through a vein.

* People who recently underwent vaccination or immunization shots. These shots are important.
--- We now have vaccines to prevent more than 20 life-threatening diseases, helping people of all ages live longer, healthier lives. Immunization currently prevents 3.5-5 million deaths every year from diseases like diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, influenza and measles. Vaccines are also critical to the prevention and control of infectious disease outbreaks.
--- But inserting this medication also creates a hole in the skin for a short period of time and that makes these individuals more susceptible to mosquito bites.

* Another vulnerable group is people who use blood thinners. They will bleed more easier and longer.

* Hemophilia is a rare, inherited blood disorder that happens when your blood doesn't clot and make your bleeding slow down or stop.

* There are a variety of different types of medical shots that can provide an open wound in the skin and make individuals more vulnerable to mosquito bites. These shots can be given by using intravenous (IV) injections. What to know about different types of injections
--- administer fluid solutions and electrolytes to a person experiencing dehydration
--- give local and general anesthesia to people having surgery or a procedure
--- administer pain medications to a person in the emergency room or after surgery
--- give blood or blood products to a person
--- administer nutrition to a person who is severely malnourished
--- administer iron to a person with a severe iron deficiency
--- administer contrast dye to a person having a special imaging test
--- administer a steroid such as dexamethasone
--- give chemotherapy to a person with cancer
--- infuse monoclonal antibodies for COVID-19 treatment

* Other individuals who are a little more vulnerable are:
--- Women having a period.
--- Women giving birth
--- Newborns: Belly button. (The umbilical cord is cut a few inches from the infant at birth. This is why the baby requires cord care for a few days after birth. The cord eventually falls off which leaves a belly button.)

So the main point is that some people are more vulnerable to mosquito bites which can produce H5N1 infections. For most people this threat can be solved by keeping people with open skin wounds/bleeds indoors in clean insect free environments until the wounds heal. Or if they venture outside to pretreat their bodies/clothing to prevent insect bites until their wounds are healed.

I came across an interesting article focusing on Bird Flu (H5N1) in Animals. A large number of veterinarians and other scientist have been investigating this outbreak and the potential for infecting humans.

Bird flu has been invading the brains of mammals.

Since H5N1 arrived on North American shores in December 2021, it has infected animals as wide-ranging as polar bears, skunks, sea lions, bottlenosed dolphins and cows. And one unwelcome revelation of the ongoing outbreak is the virus’s propensity to invade the brains of myriad mammals.

H5N1 is now known to infect more than 50 mammal species.

In mammals, bird flu typically causes respiratory symptoms such as congestion or shortness of breath. Neurological symptoms such as seizures or paralysis are among the most striking and common signs that the virus has reached the brain. And once it does, the infection is often fatal. In the ongoing H5N1 outbreak, such cases have been confirmed posthumously in house cats, raccoons, sea lions, dolphins and several other species.

Some animals that have been killed by H5N1 weirdly had signs of infection only in the brain. The brain of a red fox in the Netherlands, for instance, was infected with H5N1 but not the animal’s lungs. Red foxes and mink in Canada similarly had mostly neurological disease. And bird flu didn’t seem to touch the lungs of a bottlenosed dolphin found off the coast of Florida in 2022, despite the animal having virus-infected brain tissue.

Virologist and veterinarian Víctor Neira thinks that’s what may be happening in some sea lions in Chile. He and colleagues investigated an outbreak in the animals in 2023 along the coast of Chile, including two animals that the team necropsied. Although one animal didn’t have neurological symptoms, the other had paralysis, disorientation, lack of coordination and tremors, the researchers reported in October 2023 in Veterinary Quarterly. The virus had infected multiple organs including the lungs, liver and kidneys, but the highest viral counts came from the brain.

H5N1 and its close relatives have an easier path to the brain compared with other flu strains, (Emmie) de Wit says. And the virus is exceptionally good at making copies of itself inside a variety of cells, including nerve cells.

To break inside a cell, flu viruses exploit a protein called sialic acid on the cell’s surface. Bird cells and mammalian cells in the upper airway typically have different types of sialic acids, which means that bird flu viruses don’t easily infect mammals and vice versa.

But studies have shown that parts of the human brain, for instance, are covered in birdlike sialic acid proteins. Many cells, including the nerve cells in the olfactory bulb — which is important for sense of smell and links directly to the brain — also have additional proteins that allow H5 viruses to replicate. Both of those traits mean that “there’s a direct entry route [to the brain] from your nose,” de Wit says. So avian flu viruses may pose a bigger threat to the brain than, say, seasonal influenzas that mostly target cells in the nose, throat and lungs.

Since 2003, there have been 891 cases of H5N1 in people, about half of which were fatal according to the World Health Organization.

The number of bird flu (H5N1) cases are on the rise.

5 human cases of bird flu in Colorado poultry workers, health officials report

There have been four confirmed human cases of bird flu in the U.S. since March, all in farmworkers, with two in Michigan, one in Texas and one in Colorado, the CDC said.

Five poultry workers from a farm in northeast Colorado have bird flu, state and federal health officials reported Sunday. Four of the cases have been confirmed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and one is presumptively positive for H5N1, also known as avian influenza, and is pending confirmation.

So the number of cases of Bird Flu in humans is growing. But the problem is that they are only testing a few farm workers and not the general population. So a major pandemic of H5N1 may be underway and we are blind to the outbreak.

Another article discusses the explosion of Bird Flu on a global scale.

"You can predict, but you may find yourself wrong."



This was an interesting discussion about H5N1. Dr. Paul Offit gives his thought (very detailed thoughts) on the potential of this type of virus to become highly transmittable to humans. He believes that it will not happen but he also concludes "You can predict, but you may find yourself wrong." This article then goes on to describe the various medical treatments available if H5N1 becomes a highly transmittable/very deadly disease. The last 3 minutes of this discussion is important information.

From my perspective, I see one important missing link. In my humble opinion, this virus is not transmitted directly from one person to another but rather there is a transmission agent called a Mosquito. In other words, you can have two people sitting side by side. One is infected and one is not. The uninfected human is safe, that is unless an insect bits the infected individual and passes this infected blood into the bloodstream of the uninfected person.

The Two Hemispheres

As this virus flows from the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, back and forth and back and forth, the virus is creating different strains. In the Southern Hemisphere, as of 16 July 2024:

Various HPAI strains (H7N3, H7N9, H7N8) have been reported in eight poultry farms in Victoria, including Terang and Golden Plains Shire, in two in the Greater Sydney Basin (NSW) and in one in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). The seven premises in the Golden Plains Shire are infected with the same strain (H7N3). While the property near Terang was epidemiologically linked, it was infected with a different strain (H7N9). A third strain (H7N8) first detected in NSW, was also found in the ACT.

Update on avian influenza in Australia

I came across another encrypted article from Europe.

The Liverpool vaccine factory preparing for a H5N1 bird flu pandemic

Researchers at the vast facility describe the ‘pre-pandemic’ jabs being made there as a ‘first line of defence’

In a vast warehouse just off the M62 huge quantities of vaccine to protect against the deadly H5N1 influenza virus await shipment to continental Europe.

The vaccine, made by the Australian-owned company CSL Seqirus (CSLS) at its main UK manufacturing plant in Speke, Liverpool, has been grown from virus samples taken from infected cattle in the US and has been purchased as a precaution.

In recent months, H5N1 has spread rapidly across more than 100 dairy herds in 12 US states, raising fears that a new respiratory pandemic could be in the offing.

Nigel Hilton, CSLS’s vice president of manufacturing and head of the Liverpool plant, describes the “pre-pandemic” jabs being made there as a “first line of defence”.

The first batches of the two-dose vaccine are on their way to Finland, which has bought enough for 10,000 people as part of a joint EU procurement of up to 40 million doses for 15 nations including France, Ireland and Portugal. Other EU countries can opt in at a time of their choosing.

In the event that H5N1 breaks out of animal reservoirs such as poultry, cattle or mink to spread human to human, stockpiles of the jab could also be used as a stopgap to protect medics and other essential workers until an updated version becomes available.

It’s why the US has ordered 4.8m doses of the pre-pandemic shot from CSLS’s American arm, while the UK put out a tender in mid June to build a similar precautionary stockpile here.

The UK move came after the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) assessed that the odds of H5N1 “evolving to cause human transmission” had increased from near zero at the start of the year to between one-in-ten and one-in-three now.

For the pre-pandemic vaccines now being made for Europe, the strain being used is the latest zoonotic version of the H5N1 virus taken from cattle in the US.

If a human to human H5N1 pandemic does end up breaking out, CSL has contracts in place with the UKHSA and others requiring it to make fully matched vaccines available within 16 weeks or 112 days of the pandemic being called by the World Health Organization.

The US government announced this month it will pay the mDNA vaccine manufacturer Moderna $176 million to develop a vaccine against H5N1 as part of its preparations for a possible pandemic.

So this was an interesting discussion. But just as we found out in the COVID pandemic, the virus was in constant change, always moving from one strain to another. So what I have discussed in this thread is an alternate approach to this threat, this very real threat.

In a potential outbreak, is bird flu testing available for humans?

As of July 11, the H5N1 virus has affected more than 99 million poultry (in all 50 states), more than 9,500 wild birds (in 48 states) and more than 145 dairy herds (in 12 states), according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

In a June 10 memo, the CDC issued a public statement warning of a lack of testing availability.

"The World Health Organization (WHO) has identified this virus as a major public health concern, as it has the potential to cause a global pandemic," the statement read.

"The home tests for flu are not sensitive to bird flu."

"The current testing capabilities for influenza A(H5) are limited, which could hinder efforts to contain and control the virus in the event of an outbreak."

Currently, only the CDC and certain jurisdictional public health laboratories are equipped to test for and diagnose bird flu, according to the agency.

"This poses a significant problem, as these laboratories may not have the capacity to handle a large number of cases in the event of an H5 epidemic or pandemic," the statement said.

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Note: This is a very, very fast, very, very deadly virus. As I wrote on 27 Jun 2024, 9:49 am:
4. If you become infected with H5N1 treat the condition immediately using one of four FDA-approved antivirals for influenza: (1) Oseltamivir phosphate (Tamiflu), (2) Zanamivir (Relenza), (3) Peramivir (Rapivab), (4) Baloxavir (Xofluza). These are prescription drugs and will require a doctors prescription. Time is of the essence here. This condition will begin to destroy the human body and make it impossible to treat within a few days. Time is of the essence.