Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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Moderna Vaccine

A U.S. Food and Drug Administration advisory panel voted Thursday to endorse Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine, clearing the way for FDA leaders to authorize emergency mass distribution amid an ongoing surge of COVID-19 cases across the country.

The vote was 20-0. One committee member abstained. The vote will now go before FDA officials who will decide whether to grant EUA based on the committee’s findings.

Source: FDA panel endorses Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Friday formally granted emergency approval for Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine, officially paving the way for widespread distribution of the long-awaited vaccine.

This will probably be the vaccine I will opt for when it is my turn in the queue.

Today my daughter received her first shot of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine. She felt no ill side effects, not even pain at the injection site. She is a health care provider, an Anesthesiologists, which put her at the top of the queue. It is a dangerous profession to be in during the pandemic. They hook up the ventilators to the patients, which is an aerosol generating procedure.

So I guess I will just wait for my turn in line.

I'm not getting mine----until the Spring, probably.....

ICU availability in Southern California at 0%, and it’s going to get worse, officials warn

ASPartOfMe quoted "The availability of intensive care unit beds throughout Southern California hit 0% Thursday, and officials warned that conditions in hospitals are expected to erode further if the coronavirus continues to spread unchecked."

One of the problems of Southern California is that it is essentially a desert environment. It is subject to periods of low humidity and low humidity is a breeding ground for viruses. I came across an article from UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability which made the following points:
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“It’s not the heat, it’s the humidity that kills you.”

Los Angeles, on the other hand, is relatively temperate but extremely dry. In fact, yesterday the humidity dipped to just 11 percent—less than the average of Chile’s Atacama Desert, which some have called “the driest place on Earth.” On average, LA gets 15 inches of rain per year compared to New Orleans’ 65 inches.

I collected 30 years of mortality data for about 400 counties across the United States. I compared excessively high mortality rates to monthly changes in humidity for each county. It turned out that, yes, high humidity levels are indeed dangerous, [but] low humidity levels were even more dangerous. People are much more likely to die on a dry day than a humid one, once temperature is accounted for. Low humidity levels put a lot of stress on respiratory systems. (Researchers are still trying to understand why, but it could be due to the drying of nasal passageways, which serve as a first line of defense against diseases, pollution and other health threats.)

Having moisture in the air is even more important for sensitive groups, such as the elderly, children and those suffering from respiratory ailments. It would be a good idea for schools to monitor indoor humidity levels and install humidifiers. And because low humidity promotes the spread of influenza, such a move would be especially useful during nasty flu seasons like the one we’re experiencing now. The same goes for assisted living facilities and other places that serve the elderly.[/i]
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The article was posted a couple years ago. L.A.’s dry air is a seldom-discussed threat to public health

IMHO, as far as the coronavirus threat, there is relief on the way because in general, January it is the wettest month of the year in Los Angeles. The rainiest months in Southern California are December through March.

This post will be a change from my usual Debbie Downer pessimism.

Pandenmics and outbreaks usually have a frightening period of exponential growth but end or at least fade into a normal disease just as quickly. The 1918 Spanish Flu second wave was introduced to the US in September was a horror show in October. It was largely over by November. The end of WWI celebrations went off without apparent superspreading on the 11th. The Hong Kong Flu was largely a December 1968 or January 1969 event depending on where you were in the country. The first wave of COVID in New York was also a quick hitter. The 1918, 1957, and 1968 pandemics collapsed with a lot less mitigation. I am in no way saying mitigation is bad, it probably helps. What I am saying is that it is possible the expert predictions of post holiday January calamity might not happen because we are if not at very close to the APEX of this wave right now.

This article was posted over a week ago:

Throughout the hard-hit states of the Upper Midwest and northern Plains — in Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas — coronavirus case counts have been falling for weeks.

Could this be a sign that America’s worst surge to date has already peaked in the places it struck hardest — and a clue that the rest of the country might not be far behind?

When case counts were skyrocketing across the Upper Midwest earlier this fall, the national media was all over the story. But the near simultaneous regional turnaround that began in mid-November has attracted a lot less attention.

Source: 'Third wave' COVID cases are falling in the Upper Midwest. Will the rest of America follow?

London faces third lockdown as new COVID-19 strain spreads

Netherlands, Belgium, other EU nations ban flights from U.K. as new COVID strain continues to spread

An international biotechnology conference that took place in Beantown [Boston, Massachusetts] on February 26-27 soon became a “superspreader” event.



[One] superspreading event, which occurred at an international [Biogen] business conference [held in Boston from February 26 - 27] early in the local epidemic, had a much greater impact on community transmission. [About 175 Biogen managers coming from all over the world gathered for the late-February conference hosted by the biotech company about health care, of which 100 became infected with COVID.] Because SARS-CoV-2 viruses circulating at the conference happened to be marked by distinct genomic signatures, we were able to track its downstream effects far beyond the superspreading event itself, tracing the descendants of the virus as they made a large contribution to the local outbreak in the Boston area and as they spread throughout the U.S. and the world, likely causing hundreds of thousands of cases. The different genetic diversity seen in the two events raises the possibility that superspreading encompasses varied transmission dynamics.

Superspreading event, which occurred at an international business conference early in the local epidemic, had a much greater impact on community transmission. Because SARS-CoV-2 viruses circulating at the conference happened to be marked by distinct genomic signatures, we were able to track its downstream effects far beyond the superspreading event itself, tracing the descendants of the virus as they made a large contribution to the local outbreak in the Boston area and as they spread throughout the U.S. and the world, likely causing hundreds of thousands of cases. The different genetic diversity seen in the two events raises the possibility that superspreading encompasses varied transmission dynamics.

Genome data reveal that the impact of the conference was far larger than the approximately 100 cases directly associated with the event. Using state-reported case counts, we estimate that by the end of the study period, approximately 50,000 diagnosed cases [44,000 - 56,000] in the U.S. resulted from conference-associated viruses; of these, 46% [40.4 - 51.8%] were in Massachusetts. Through November 1, 2020, we estimate that a total of 245,000 [205,000 - 300,000] cases marked by C2416T, and 88,000 [56,000 - 139,000] cases marked by G26233T, were linked to the conference in the United States.

Source: Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in Boston highlights the impact of superspreading events

Interesting. I suspect that if they dug a little deeper, they might find that aerosol transmission played a strong role in these transmissions.

Moderna Vaccine

FedEx began shipping the second coronavirus vaccine candidate to earn emergency authorization in the U.S. after Moderna, a Massachusetts-based biotech company, received the authorization for its vaccine candidate from an FDA advisory panel on Thursday.

Employees at a factory in the Memphis area and a facility in Olive Branch, Mississippi were boxing up the vaccine developed by Moderna Inc. and the National Institutes of Health.

A truck left the Mississippi facility Sunday morning with a police escort. The much-needed shots are expected to be given starting Monday, just three days after the Food and Drug Administration authorized their emergency rollout.



Moderna agreed to deliver approximately 20 million doses of the vaccine candidate to the U.S. government by the end of December. The Department of Defense, in partnership with the Department of Health and Human Services and CDC in Operation Warp Speed, will distribute the vaccine.

Source: FedEx begins shipping second COVID-19 vaccine, with first Moderna shots expected Monday

Since we are rapidly nearing the end of December, the 20 million doses of Moderna vaccine seems a little bit too optimistic to me. Another article states, "It [U.S. Government] expects to be able to vaccinate about 20 million people by the end of December, and then an additional 20-25 million people in January." So I would interpret this goal as the combination of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines (first dose).

Country after country closing its borders to the UK this evening.

Channel tunnel closes tonight too as france has banned anyone from the UK entering. This goes for haulage too, that's going to case chaos if the ban lasts for days as we have around 10,000 lorries leaving Dover heading for France every day. Thousands incoming everyday too such is the way of life here in Europe for food and daily goods.

Ontario will enter province-wide lockdown as of Christmas Eve, sources say

The meeting of the COBRA civil contingencies committee comes amid warnings of "significant disruption" around the ports in the English Channel, with tailbacks going back miles into Kent, the county in southeastern England.

The tailbacks came after France announced Sunday that it was closing its borders for 48 hours, which means lorries cannot get across the English Channel by boat. Goods arriving on containers are unaffected.

The government has urged everyone to avoid traveling to Kent, which hosts many of the cross-Channel ports. Dover notably sees around 10,000 lorries pass through every day, accounting for around 20% of the U.K.'s trade in goods. Eurotunnel, the rail service that links Britain with mainland Europe, has also suspended services.

Canada, India and Poland are among the latest countries to halt flights from the U.K., following the lead of many in Europe. France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, Poland, Austria, Denmark, Ireland and Bulgaria were among those who on Sunday announced widespread restrictions on flights from the U.K.

[Boris] Johnson said early indications are that the new variant of the virus is 70% more transmissible and is driving the rapid spread of new infections in the capital and surrounding areas. On Sunday, the U.K. recorded a record daily total of 35,928 new infections.

Shapps insisted that the public won't notice any shortages "for the most part" as a result of the ban on lorries and that the supply of coronavirus vaccines will continue as they come via containers that are unaffected. Trade association Logistics U.K. has urged people to stay calm and not to rush to supermarkets to stockpile goods. "Shoppers should not panic buy," said Alex Veitch, general manager at Logistics U.K. "Retailers will be making every effort to ensure there is stock within the system, including fresh produce, and it is important that we remember that inbound traffic still has access to the U.K."

Source: UK to hold emergency meeting amid new coronavirus strain as more countries close borders to Britain

For those in England, I will make one additional observation. Sometimes when the government recommends against panic buying, it essentially lights a little red light in peoples minds to actually do the exact opposite.