Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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Possible Positive Side Effect of Vaccine

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One of the symptoms of COVID-19 is the development of dark blemishes on the hands and feet.

Of 666 coronavirus patients in Madrid, Spain, nearly half showed issues with the skin and mucous membrane. A team of researchers from Madrid reported on their findings this week with a study published in British Journal of Dermatology in September. When Madrid was battling a pandemic peak last April, doctors set up a temporary field hospital to examine coronavirus patients with mild-to-moderate pneumonia, according to the study. Their report includes 666 patients, of which 46% showed at least one mucocutaneous manifestation, or a skin and mucous membrane related condition.

Among the most common were peeling skin (25%), reddish-brown blemishes on the hands and feet (15%) and painful, swollen bumps on the tongue (12%), among other less common conditions like a burning sensation in the mouth (5%) and hand-foot syndrome (7%) involving swelling.

Source: Some coronavirus patients experience ‘burning sensation,’ swollen tongue, doctors say

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In the May/June timeframe of 2020, I was bitten by a stinging fly. The sting produced a large bump on the skin and then over several days the bump went down and a reddish-brown circular blemish appeared. Over several months, many other hive like itchy bumps appeared and turned into large blemishes, until my right hand was 60% covered with these blemishes and my left hand was about 20%. In addition to one circular spot on each foot.

I had seen a dermatologist on two occasions to identify condition. But it remains unknown and no treatments were effective during past 8 months.

I received my first dose of the Moderna vaccine on 27 January. In the last 2 weeks, blemishes have lightened up and skin has become smoother.

Herd Immunity Might Be Closer Than What You Think

I read an interesting article by Alex Berezow:

As of now, the official number of COVID cases in the United States stands at roughly 27.1 million. However, the CDC just released its own estimate of the actual number of infections: 83.1 million, more than three times the official count.

If this number is anywhere near accurate, it changes just about everything. Here are some of them:

1) The lockdowns didn't work as intended. It may be too early to say that lockdowns were an abject failure, but if there really are 83 million infected Americans, we can safely say that the lockdowns didn't work as intended.

To be fair, it's far easier to make this statement in retrospect. In the middle of a pandemic, when people are dying left and right, a lockdown looks quite reasonable. In fact, lockdowns may be necessary to prevent overwhelming the healthcare system. So, instead of concluding that we shouldn't have done any lockdown, the better conclusion is that the lockdown should have been smarter. For instance, perhaps only those who are 65 and older should have been given "stay at home" orders rather than the entire community.

2) The huge number of cases isn't because most infections are asymptomatic. The CDC estimates the overall infection rate to be 25,412 per 100,000 people and the symptomatic illness rate to be 21,532 per 100,000. That means about 85% of infections result in symptoms and only 15% are asymptomatic.

The discrepancy in the official number (27.1 million cases) and the estimated number (83.1 million infections) likely is because so many people never bothered getting tested, among other reasons. A person with minor symptoms is unlikely to go to the hospital.

3) We are much closer to herd immunity than we thought. Herd immunity can arise in one of two ways: Natural infection or vaccination. Once herd immunity is reached, the epidemic should end. (However, note that herd immunity does not mean "no more infections." Instead, it means that there are no more outbreaks, even though a low, baseline level of infection might still exist.) If 83 million people have been infected and 6 million have been fully vaccinated (with two doses), about 27% of the American public should be immune. If herd immunity can be achieved at 70%, then we're getting close to halfway there.

Source: CDC Estimates 83 Million U.S. COVID Infections. This Has Major Implications.

Although Alex focused on the 6 million that have been fully vaccinated. I will focus on the 48 million that have received at least the first dose and have as a result some level of immunity.

Progress of COVID Inoculations

According to the coronavirus vaccine tracker, the U.S. has now administered 50.08 million vaccine doses with around 15.1% of the U.S. population vaccinated (with at least one dose). In the United States an average of 1.66 million doses were injected daily.

Globally 168.01 million vaccine doses have been given with the U.S., China and U.K. in the top three positions.

Source: COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker

Tidbits

People who suffer from obesity appear to exhale more, increasing their rate of potentially spreading covid; researchers are looking harder at air conditioning's role in the pandemic; the EPA now says handrails and doorknobs made with at least 95.6% copper can be marketed as "virus-killing."

Computational fluid dynamics can help assess transmission risk of airborne COVID-19 particles, according to a study published yesterday in Physics of Fluids. The researchers, from the University of Minnesota, found that their modeling of a January 2020 COVID outbreak in a restaurant in Guangzhou, China, supports the idea that air conditioning contributed to disease transmission. After mapping out the general layout of the restaurant, its ventilation systems, and its occupants, the researchers discerned that the cyclical flow of air from the four heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) units along the wall was disrupted by factors including hemispherical hot regions above each table due to food heat, the restaurant's occupants, and the presence of a fifth, floor-level HVAC unit on the adjacent wall.

Special copper doorknobs and handrails can help fight the coronavirus, according to the EPA. The agency announced a move Wednesday that allows products with antimicrobial copper alloys to be marketed with that virus-killing claim — the first product to be registered with such residual properties for nationwide use.

Source: Studies Dig Deeper Into Aerosol Transmission Of Coronavirus

Coronavirus Variants

U.K. variant
The U.K. strain, called B.1.1.7, was first reported in the U.S. in late December, and it spreads more quickly and easily than other variants, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A CDC report from earlier this month found it could become the dominant strain in the U.S. as early as March. As of Feb. 9, there were 932 confirmed cases of this variant in 34 U.S. states. It's also spreading at high levels in Denmark and Scandinavia, Lopman said.

South African variant
This variant, known as B.1.351, emerged independently from the U.K. strain but shares some of its mutations, according to the CDC. Data indicates that it first emerged in South Africa in October and has since spread to other countries, including the U.S. In late January, the CDC confirmed two cases in South Carolina, and CDC director Rochelle Walensky told TODAY at the time that it had already reached the point of community spread. This variant could also make reinfection more likely; a vaccine study in South Africa found new infections with a variant in 2% of people who'd already had another version of the coronavirus. So far, it's also been detected in Maryland and Virginia, and according to Lopman, it does seem to spread more easily than other strains in the U.S.

Brazilian variant
The Brazilian strain, P.1, was first detected in mid-January in travelers to Japan from the Amazonas state of Brazil. It appears to contain mutations that raise concerns about its transmissibility and potential for reinfection, according to the CDC. Manaus, the largest city in the Amazon region, saw a surge in cases in December, despite 75% of the population already having been infected by October. Three cases of this variant have been reported by the CDC in the U.S. in Minnesota and Oklahoma.

U.S. variants in California, Ohio
A new strain known as CAL.20C now accounts for half of COVID-19 cases in Southern California, according to research from Cedars-Sinai medical center in L.A. To detect the strain, researchers initially looked at 10,000 COVID-19 samples from the state as far back as March and found the earliest sample of the strain in July, Plummer, co-author of the research, said. By mid-to-late January, the new strain represented more than 30% of cases in the entire state and more than 40% in Southern California.

As of mid-February, researchers have found CAL.20C in 19 states, Washington, D.C., and six foreign countries. The data at this stage suggests that it could be more easily spread than other strains, but the surge of CAL.20C also coincided with people gathering for holidays, Plummer said.

In Ohio, researchers at Wexner Medical Center in Columbus have discovered two new strains of SARS-CoV-2. Researchers are still tracking the prevalence of both, but they've found that one of the strains became dominant Columbus, Ohio, over three weeks between December and January and suspect it's likely more infectious.

Source: Should I be concerned about COVID-19 variants? Experts break it down

Impact to Education

Almost 1.6 billion children were out of school at the peak of COVID-19 lockdowns, according to the World Bank, which publishes a map of global school closures. Students lost two-thirds of an academic year on average due to those closures, UNESCO says.

Pope Francis, in a speech about a year of isolation and “despair,” described a generation of children, alone and in front of their computer screens, enduring the “educational catastrophe” of school closures or distance learning, The Washington Post reports.

Parents, juggling work from home—when that’s an option—have been getting into teaching mode as best they can. In the United Kingdom, parents are stressed and anxious about their children’s mental health, as teachers there expect parents to do more home schooling with their primary-age children during the current lockdown than the last one, according to research conducted by the Parent Ping survey app for the Observer newspaper.

Meanwhile, in Hong Kong, parents are “at their wits’ end” and frustrated as school closures continue, Anjani Trivedi writes on Bloomberg, calling closures there unsound and unreasonable given the scale of community transmission.

Add wherever it takes place in the world, the experience of home schooling may foster greater awareness of digital exclusion and other inequities, as well as renewed respect for the role of educators.

Source: School closures worldwide are having long-term impacts on students

Interesting Observation - China

Authorities in China hoped that stay-at-home restrictions last year would lead to a baby boom, but new data shows that birth rates there continued to drop, The Washington Post reports. “Who was in the mood to make babies [during the pandemic]?” one commentator asked on the microblog Weibo.

Herd Immunity

It’s here: The results of Israel’s vaccine campaign are rolling in, and they are promising. Early results of Israel’s speedy Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine rollout are promising because older and vulnerable groups, the first to get the vaccine, are demonstrating a sharp decrease in illnesses, Reuters says. There was a 53 percent drop in new cases and a 39 percent decline in hospital admissions in the first fully vaccinated cohort between mid-January and February 6, the newswire reports, citing Eran Segal, data scientist at the Weizmann Institute of Science in Rehovot, Israel.

Source: Atlantic Council

Mask Scammers

Federal authorities are investigating a massive counterfeit N95 mask operation in which fake 3M masks were sold in at least five states to hospitals, medical facilities and government agencies. The foreign-made knockoffs are becoming increasingly difficult to spot and could put health care workers at grave risk for the coronavirus.

These masks are giving first responders “a false sense of security,” said Steve Francis, assistant director for global trade investigations with the Homeland Security Department’s principal investigative arm.

Nearly a year into the pandemic, fraud remains a major problem as scammers seek to exploit hospitals and desperate and weary Americans. Federal investigators say they have seen an increase in phony websites purporting to sell vaccines as well as fake medicine produced overseas and scams involving personal protective equipment. The schemes deliver phony products, unlike fraud earlier in the pandemic that focused more on fleecing customers.

Source: Aspen Daily News

Progress of COVID Inoculations

According to the coronavirus vaccine tracker, the U.S. has now administered 52.04 million vaccine doses with around 15.7% of the U.S. population vaccinated (with at least one dose). In the United States an average of 1.64 million doses were injected daily.

Globally 172.83 million vaccine doses have been given with the U.S., China and U.K. in the top three positions.

Source: COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker

Unexplained Covid-19 cases prompt first lockdown in New Zealand since August

U.K. Variant

The coronavirus variant that originated in the United Kingdom and has since been found in the U.S., is likely deadlier than other versions of the virus, according to an assessment released by scientists with the British government on Friday.

The variant, known as B.1.1.7, is likely about 30% to 70% more deadly than the original strain, scientists said in the study, which drew from multiple databases across the country.

Scientists had already determined that the variant was probably 30% to 70% more transmissible, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson tweeting last month that, it "may also be associated with a higher degree of mortality."

Colorado was the first U.S. state to identify the mutation. It has since been found in New York, California, Florida, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Utah, among others.

Source: UK coronavirus variant found in US could be deadlier, scientists say

Pfizer Vaccine Effectiveness

A study by Israel’s largest healthcare provider on Sunday found that after participants received two doses of Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine, they saw a 94% drop in symptomatic COVID-19 infections, according to a report.

The study found that people in the group were also 92% less likely to develop severe illness from the virus after receiving both jabs, according to Reuters.

"It shows unequivocally that Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine is extremely effective in the real world a week after the second dose, just as it was found to be in the clinical study," said Ran Balicer, Clalit’s chief innovation officer.

Source: Israel study on Pfizer vaccine indicates 94% drop in symptomatic COVID-19 cases

Some Covid vaccination humor....

Holy s**t.

I wish Johnson and Johnson had more effectiveness.....

Because of the massive snowstorm, they cancelled my wife's appointment for the vaccine today as they shut down the vaccination center. My daughter set up an alternate appointment on the fly in the next town over. We drove there and she received her first shot of the Pfizer vaccine.