Fauci forecast: 100,000 - 200,000 American deaths.

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goldfish21
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31 Mar 2020, 7:44 pm

EzraS wrote:

sly279 wrote:

EzraS wrote:

California has the largest population in America (twice that of New York) but it is considerably way behind New York in number of developing cases. And that is not because California has tighter measures in place than New York. Texas which has the second highest population in the US and is by far the biggest red state, has about half as many cases as deep blue California.

I'd like to see you post those per capita statistics, but I have a feeling to don't actually know what they are.

California locked down cities and their whole state long before New York even considered it. That’s why their numbers are lower.

How many tests are Texas doing?
If you don’t test you can just say you have zero cases, but that’s not reality.

Texas has had 49 deaths. Obviously the virus is not a big problem in the big state so far.

So far.

You do understand the concept of exponential growth, don’t you?

Unless an area has hit its apex and the numbers are on the decline, initial numbers like these are exactly that.. just the tip of the iceberg.

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ASPartOfMe
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31 Mar 2020, 7:46 pm

jimmy m wrote:

goldfish21 wrote:

Pretty sure this isn’t going to improve the death toll, either. Here’s someone’s recap of trump’s coronavirus update yesterday:

Quote:

If you're not watching Trump's nightly Coronavirus shitfest, here's the summary:

Trump then admits there actually ARE shortages [of face masks], but blames Obama. Saying that it's like how the military was out of bullets when he took over. None of this has any basis in reality whatsoever, but the toadies in the background are all nodding like this is fact.

This is beyond gaslighting.

This is a radioactive gas cloud.

This is like watching the Soviet government press briefings about Chernobyl, when the reactor was still burning and the Russians didn't realize we could actually SEE it from orbit and that radiation meters were sounding the alarm over half the planet.

Hmmmmm!

Why is the United States running out of face masks for medical workers? How does the world’s wealthiest country find itself in such a tragic and avoidable mess? And how long will it take to get enough protective gear, if that’s even possible now?

Few in the protective equipment industry are surprised by the shortages, because they’ve been predicted for years. In 2005, the George W. Bush administration called for the coordination of domestic production and stockpiling of protective gear in preparation for pandemic influenza. In 2006, Congress approved funds to add protective gear to a national strategic stockpile — among other things, the stockpile collected 52 million surgical face masks and 104 million N95 respirator masks.

But about 100 million masks in the stockpile were deployed in 2009 in the fight against the H1N1 flu pandemic, and the government never bothered to replace them. This month, Alex Azar, secretary of health and human services, testified that there are only about 40 million masks in the stockpile — around 1 percent of the projected national need.

As the coronavirus began to spread in China early this year, a global shortage of protective equipment began to look inevitable. But by then it was too late for the American government to do much about the problem. Two decades ago, most hospital protective gear was made domestically. But like much of the rest of the apparel and consumer products business, face mask manufacturing has since shifted nearly entirely overseas. “China is a producer of 80 percent of masks worldwide,” Laverdure said.

Source: How the World’s Richest Country Ran Out of a 75-Cent Face Mask

Barrack Obama was president of the United States from January 20, 2009 to January 20 2017. So yes indeed the Obama administration chose to not replenish the huge national strategic stockpile of face masks set aside for the next pandemic.

You would think after 9/11 fear of bio terror attack would have the government prepared for this sort of thing. Wrong. Dead wrong.

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EzraS
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31 Mar 2020, 7:54 pm

goldfish21 wrote:

EzraS wrote:

sly279 wrote:

EzraS wrote:

Texas has had 49 deaths. Obviously the virus is not a big problem in the big state so far.

So far.

You do understand the concept of exponential growth, don’t you?

Unless an area has hit its apex and the numbers are on the decline, initial numbers like these are exactly that.. just the tip of the iceberg.

I understand that it is a concept that relies upon a constant. Why is it that in the US there are as few as 9 million cases of the flu one year and as many as 45 million in another year? That is a rhetorical question really because A all you can do is make an armchair guess and B I don't think you know anything about it really beyond repeating hackneyed phrases like tip of the ice berg.

goldfish21
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31 Mar 2020, 8:08 pm

Mmhmm.

Meanwhile, you seem to think the USA is doin a fine job of mitigating this but the numbers say otherwise.. hence the upward trajectory of the US infection curve vs any other country on Earth.

Your arguing with me about who is correct is moot. The numbers tell the story. Watch them skyrocket. T-minus 30 days from now and the daily death toll in the USA will be in the thousands - and still climbing.

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EzraS
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31 Mar 2020, 8:29 pm

goldfish21 wrote:

You have basically said the same exact thing several times now and have only offered idioms and anecdotes to back any of it up.

goldfish21
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31 Mar 2020, 11:44 pm

EzraS wrote:

goldfish21 wrote:

You have basically said the same exact thing several times now and have only offered idioms and anecdotes to back any of it up.

Let’s watch the daily numbers & check in at the end of April to see what the daily death toll* is and see.

*Assuming the USA is actually transparent with real numbers vs what China has disclosed. Yes, I bet the real numbers in China are Much Higher than reported.

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goldfish21
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01 Apr 2020, 2:06 am

US recorded over 700 C-19 deaths today for the first time. It’ll be over 1,000/day by the end of the weekend.

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EzraS
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01 Apr 2020, 2:13 am

The thing is, you are not making any kind of educated assessment. You are just thowing out anicdotal prognostication.

If the virus hits 1000 deaths a day for 30 days, that will be half the number of deaths caused by the flu in 2018.

And raise the monthly mortality rate from 225,000 to 255,000.

Although maybe not since the stay at home edict will likely lessen the number of deaths that normally occure when people are outside of their homes.

Therefore it's possible the mortality rate for April might end up being lower than usual.

goldfish21
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01 Apr 2020, 3:10 am

I’m not making an educated assessment?

It doesn’t even take having studied statistics & quantitative methods for analysis and decision making at an Institute of Technology to understand the math at play here - but I have, thanks.

At the rate daily deaths are increasing they’ll be over 1,000/day by the end of the weekend. It’s incredibly simple math, EzraS.

And you can’t deduct a reduction in other causes of death due to economic inactivity and somehow pretend that reduces the number, or significance, of C-19 deaths. :roll: Literally no one has made the argument that overall American deaths will skyrocket (yet, but they likely will.) so your goofy math of trying to downplay C-19 deaths because the overall mortality rate May remain ~flat right now is ridiculous, never mind insulting to the family and friends of victims.

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TheRobotLives
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01 Apr 2020, 3:20 am

I wonder if they send hospitalized infected people a huge bill.

EDIT:

Total Cost of Her COVID-19 Treatment: $34,927.43
https://time.com/5806312/coronavirus-treatment-cost/

She wasn't even hospitalized.

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EzraS
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01 Apr 2020, 4:59 am

goldfish21 wrote:

Which will bring it to half the number of deaths caused by the flu in 2018.

goldfish21 wrote:

And you can’t deduct a reduction in other causes of death due to economic inactivity and somehow pretend that reduces the number, or significance, of C-19 deaths. :roll:

Literally no one has made the argument that overall American deaths will skyrocket (yet, but they likely will.) so your goofy math of trying to downplay C-19 deaths because the overall mortality rate May remain ~flat right now is ridiculous, never mind insulting to the family and friends of victims.

Instead of accusing me of downplaying, you should see it as me as being optimistic.

As far as being insensitive, you going on about how many thousands of Americans are going to die due to all the all the demeaning trashing you have been leveling against them is about as repugnant and cold hearted as it gets.

You should make yourself more useful than pronouncing doom on those you express so much hatred towards and invent a cure for the virus like you did for autism.

goldfish21
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01 Apr 2020, 11:09 am

EzraS wrote:

goldfish21 wrote:

Which will bring it to half the number of deaths caused by the flu in 2018.

goldfish21 wrote:

And you can’t deduct a reduction in other causes of death due to economic inactivity and somehow pretend that reduces the number, or significance, of C-19 deaths. :roll:

It’s not my fault people South of the border from federal leadership on down are acting stupid about this hoax and so many people are going to die. I am merely an observer pointing out what’s obvious for all to see. You think I’m being pessimistic? Have you read Fnord’s estimates for the American death toll?

Millions.

I didn’t invent a cure for autism. For the 73747848279998890888736633th time: I discovered an effective treatment protocol. It has always been there for any of us to uncover. I simply did it. You’re welcome, btw.

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goldfish21
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01 Apr 2020, 11:14 am

TheRobotLives wrote:

Yeah, I’ve seen that one. I wonder what the average ventilated recovered patient will be billed? $250K? $400K? 21 days of being in the ICU on a ventilator is going to cost the price of a cheap condo. People are either make payments forever, never going to pay it off, or go bankrupt.

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kraftiekortie
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01 Apr 2020, 11:25 am

That scenario plays out if the person is not insured at all. And if there are no government programs that would address this.

Medical debt, under the new models, doesn’t affect people’s credit worthiness as much as it used to.

Last edited by kraftiekortie on 01 Apr 2020, 11:40 am, edited 1 time in total.

EzraS
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01 Apr 2020, 11:37 am

goldfish21 wrote:

Millions.

Fnord's estimate wasn't based on prejudice and hate.

goldfish21
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01 Apr 2020, 11:49 am

EzraS wrote:

goldfish21 wrote:

Millions.

Fnord's estimate wasn't based on prejudice and hate.

Neither is mine. It’s based on the observable actions of stupid people (and therefor science) and math.

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