Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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ASPartOfMe
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19 Jan 2023, 1:13 pm

jimmy m wrote:

On the other side of the coin. The number of COVID cases in the U.S. and the number of deaths are way down compared to a year ago.

Unlike last year the vast majority of people have contracted the Omicron variant and more are vaccinated or have gotten additional shots.

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20 Jan 2023, 11:13 am

ASPartOfMe wrote:

jimmy m wrote:

On the other side of the coin. The number of COVID cases in the U.S. and the number of deaths are way down compared to a year ago.

Unlike last year the vast majority of people have contracted the Omicron variant and more are vaccinated or have gotten additional shots.

Yes all these layers are adding and adding slivers of protection that provide us more and more immunization.

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ASPartOfMe
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20 Jan 2023, 9:49 pm

Flu, RSV and Covid may have peaked. But the threat isn't over.

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Emergency room visits related to three of the most disruptive viruses — the flu, respiratory syncytial virus and Covid — are falling nationwide.

But does that mean the feared "tripledemic" is over? Hardly, experts say. Viruses are notoriously hard to forecast.

"We've all learned over the past couple years, when you try to predict Covid, you'll get slapped in the face," said Dr. Katie Passaretti, vice president and enterprise chief epidemiologist for Atrium Health in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Still, hospital emergency room visits for the biggest viral threats began to fall in December, with the decline continuing this month. This is especially true for flu.

Trying to guess what flu will do between now and the end of flu season is "hazardous," warned Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville, Tennessee. "It is impossible to predict what will happen next."

As most families already know, flu and other viruses have been especially hard on children compared with adults, according to a study published Thursday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Schaffner is a co-author, along with Dr. Christine Thomas, an epidemic intelligence service officer at the CDC who works with the Tennessee Department of Health.

"We were really curious to see what this year would look like" following several years of almost no flu, Thomas said.

Their report focused on 4,626 people in Tennessee who got a flu test in mid-November. Flu, researchers found, spiked early and hit children the hardest. Children were twice as likely as adults to test positive, and they tended to be sicker, especially if they were infected with several viruses at once, such as the common cold on top of flu.

A separate study from earlier this week found that children hospitalized with Covid had more severe symptoms if they also had another virus.

Children ages 5 and younger are at risk because their tiny immune systems may not have been exposed to many common viruses during the pandemic.

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21 Jan 2023, 10:35 am

This study says the complete opposite of "Long Haulers return to baseline after one year": https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/12/3/741

Quote:

Fifteen months after SARS-CoV-2 infection, fatigue was the most common symptom, present in more than 90% of the post-COVID patients. Neurocognitive disorders were observed in more than 75% of cases, followed by muscle and joint pain, dyspnea and/or anxiety in more than half of the patients. Chest pain, taste and smell abnormalities and digestive problems were also present in around 40% of the patients.
As late as 22 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection, fatigue remained the most common symptom and its frequency was not decreased by the therapeutic action followed by the patients. Similarly, neurological disorders, muscle and joint pain frequency did not vary significantly.
On the other hand, the frequency of chest pain demonstrated a significant reduction (p = 0.007, McNemar’s test), and the same result was observed concerning the frequency of anxiety and dyspnea (p = 0.004 and p = 0.013, respectively, McNemar’s test), after the coordination team support. Taste and smell and digestive trouble frequencies tended to be reduced (Figure 4).

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ASPartOfMe
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23 Jan 2023, 8:05 pm

U.S. FDA proposes shift to annual COVID vaccine shots

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The U.S. health regulator on Monday proposed one dose of the latest updated COVID-19 shot annually for healthy adults, similar to the influenza immunization campaign, as it aims to simplify the country's COVID-vaccine strategy.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration also asked its panel of external advisers to consider the usage of two COVID vaccine shots a year for some young children, older adults and persons with compromised immunity.The regulator proposed the need for routine selection of variants for updating the vaccine, similar to the way strains for flu vaccines are changed annually, in briefing documents ahead of a meeting of its panel on Thursday.

The FDA hopes annual immunization schedules may contribute to less complicated vaccine deployment and fewer vaccine administration errors, leading to improved vaccine coverage rates.

The Biden administration has also been planning for a campaign of vaccine boosters every fall season.

If the panel votes in favor of the proposal, Pfizer Inc (PFE.N) and Moderna Inc's (MRNA.O) bivalent vaccines, which target both the Omicron and the original variants, would be used for all COVID vaccine doses, and not just as boosters

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26 Jan 2023, 10:29 am

Strange response

"The U.S. Food and Drug Administration also asked its panel of external advisers to consider the usage of two COVID vaccine shots a year for some young children, older adults and persons with compromised immunity.The regulator proposed the need for routine selection of variants for updating the vaccine, similar to the way strains for flu vaccines are changed annually, in briefing documents ahead of a meeting of its panel on Thursday."

I can agree strongly with vaccinations for elderly and those with immune problems. But why young children. They are not in danger generally. This sounds more like a political statement rather than a statement built with actual medical knowledge.

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jimmy m
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28 Jan 2023, 12:12 pm

As of 22 January 2023, over 664 million confirmed cases and over 6.7 million deaths have been reported globally.

The number of deaths has been on the decline in the U.S. It looks like this pandemic is coming to an end. People are still getting infected and dying but to a much lessor degree then in 2021 and 2022.

And this is where we stand now as of January 15-21, 2023.

XBB.1.5 ----- 49.1 %
BQ.1.1 ------ 26.9 %
BQ.1 -------- 13.3 %
XBB ----------- 3.3 %
BA.5 ---------- 2.0 %
BN.1 ---------- 1.8 %
BA.2.75 ------ 1.6 %
BF.7 ---------- 1.0 %
BA.5.2.6 ------ 0.4 %
BA.2 -----------0.2 %
BF.11 --------- 0.2 %
BA.4.6 -------- 0.1 %

Source: What COVID-19 variants are going around in January 2023?

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ASPartOfMe
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28 Jan 2023, 12:56 pm

jimmy m wrote:

Hospitalizations and deaths are a lagging indicator but the number of cases is falling a lot. This is during a time of minimal mitigation. There is plausible reason for optimism that we have reached partial herd immunity/ “bad flu season” status. The caveat is much less data now.

There is still Long Covid. There are some reasons to believe that it is happening less frequently and less severely. Most articles about long haulers are people suffering since before Omicron. Maybe that is because the number new long haulers is down or maybe those suffering the longest makes for a more dramatic read. The knowledge is just not there to be confident.

There have been so many it’s ending claims before a dramatic spikes.

Even if it is over there is no going back to 2019. We are going to be living with the after effects for years if not decades.

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30 Jan 2023, 9:14 pm

President Biden to End COVID-19 National Emergencies on May 11

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President Joe Biden informed Congress on Monday that he will end the twin national emergencies for addressing COVID-19 on May 11, as most of the world has returned closer to normalcy nearly three years after they were first declared.

The move to end the national emergency and public health emergency declarations would formally restructure the federal coronavirus response to treat the virus as an endemic threat to public health that can be managed through agencies’ normal authorities.

It comes as lawmakers have already ended elements of the emergencies that kept millions of Americans insured during the pandemic. Combined with the drawdown of most federal COVID-19 relief money, it would also shift the development of vaccines and treatments away from the direct management of the federal government.

Biden’s announcement comes in a statement opposing resolutions being brought to the floor this week by House Republicans to bring the emergency to an immediate end. House Republicans are also gearing up to launch investigations on the federal government’s response to COVID-19.

“In some respects, the Biden administration is catching up to what a lot of people in the country have been experiencing,” said Larry Levitt, the executive vice president for health policy at Kaiser Family Foundation. “That said, hundreds of people a day are still dying from COVID.”

Still, some things will change for Americans once the emergency expires, Levitt pointed out.

The costs of COVID-19 vaccines are also expected to skyrocket once the government stops buying them, with Pfizer saying it will charge as much as $130 per dose. Only 15% of Americans have received the recommended, updated booster that has been offered since last fall.

People with private insurance could have some out-of-pocket costs for vaccines, especially if they go to an out-of-network provider, Levitt said. Free at-home COVID tests will also come to an end. And hospitals will not get extra payments for treating COVID patients.

Legislators did extend for another two years telehealth flexibilities that were introduced as COVID-19 hit, leading health care systems around the country to regularly deliver care by smartphone or computer.

The Biden administration had previously considered ending the emergency last year, but held off amid concerns about a potential “winter surge” in cases and to provide adequate time for providers, insurers and patients to prepare for its end.

Officials said the administration would use the next three months to transition the response to conventional methods, warning that an immediate end to the emergency authorities “would sow confusion and chaos into this critical wind-down.”

“To be clear, continuation of these emergency declarations until May 11 does not impose any restriction at all on individual conduct with regard to COVID-19,” the administration said. “They do not impose mask mandates or vaccine mandates. They do not restrict school or business operations. They do not require the use of any medicines or tests in response to cases of COVID-19.”

Case counts have trended downward after a slight bump over the winter holidays, and are significantly below levels seen over the last two winters — though the number of tests performed for the virus and reported to public health officials has sharply decreased.

On Monday, the World Health Organization said the coronavirus remains a global health emergency, even as a key advisory panel for the group found the pandemic may be nearing an “inflexion point” where higher levels of immunity can lower virus-related deaths. China, for example, reported an unprecedented surge in December after lifting most of its COVID-19 restrictions.

The House was scheduled to vote Tuesday on legislation that would terminate the public health emergency.

The bill’s author, Rep. Brett Guthrie, R-Ky., said he still hopes the House will proceed with a vote. He said he was surprised by the White House move, but thinks the legislation may have played a role in prompting the administration to act.

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30 Jan 2023, 10:29 pm

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/30/biden-end-covid-health-emergency-may-00080305

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jimmy m
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31 Jan 2023, 1:05 pm

ASPartOfMe just cited an article that said:

The costs of COVID-19 vaccines are also expected to skyrocket once the government stops buying them, with Pfizer saying it will charge as much as $130 per dose. Only 15% of Americans have received the recommended, updated booster that has been offered since last fall.

So it is probably a good idea if you live in the U.S., are an older American beyond the age of 50 or have a medical condition that make you more vulnerable for getting COVID to get your upgraded vaccine (Omicron variant) now before they up the price.

I have never gotten COVID. I have received the shots and in my opinion they provide some limited protection. Nothing is perfect in this world but it does provide a layer of protection.

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ASPartOfMe
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31 Jan 2023, 4:52 pm

The COVID Public Health Emergency Is Ending. Here's What Will Happen to Health Care

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What is a public health emergency?
Under the Public Health Service Act of 1944, the secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services can determine that a disease outbreak or bioterror attack poses a public health crisis for a period of 90 days at a time. After that, the declaration must be extended.

That public health emergency determination allows the HHS, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other government agencies to access funding and increase staffing "to prevent, prepare for, or respond to an infectious disease emergency."

It also waives certain requirements for Medicare, Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) and relaxes restrictions on telemedicine.

Some 20 million people have enrolled in Medicaid since the start of the pandemic, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation, an increase of 30% over typical numbers.

What happens when the COVID public health emergency ends?
When the declaration lapses, responsibility for COVID-19 vaccines, testing and treatment will technically shift to individuals and their health insurance companies.

The retail price of Pfizer's two-dose COVID vaccine is expected to quadruple from the current government rate, from $30 per shot to between $110 and $130.

Paxlovid, which has been shown to be nearly 90% effective in reducing the risk of a severe COVID disease, will also no longer be free. A course of the drug currently costs the US government $530, according to Kaiser Health News, but that's at a bulk discount.

Pfizer, which manufactures Paxlovid, has not said what the retail price would be.

Special waivers for Medicaid and Medicare requirements that have been in place throughout the pandemic will also come to an end when the public health emergency expires. (The omnibus passed in December allows states to start disenrolling people from Medicaid in April.)

Close to 18 million people could be dropped from Medicaid when the emergency ends, according to the Urban Institute, though many will qualify for other government programs or employer-sponsored health insurance.

State Medicaid plans will continue to cover COVID vaccines and tests ordered by a physician, but treatments and at-home testing may come with an out-of-pocket expense.

"People will have to start paying some money for things they didn't have to pay for during the emergency," Jen Kates, senior vice president at the Kaiser Family Foundation, told CNN. "That's the main thing people will start to notice."

Most vaccinations will continue to be covered for individuals with private insurance. But they, too, may have to pay for treatment once the federal supply of monoclonal antibody treatments runs out.

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01 Feb 2023, 6:35 pm

Yahoo!, attributed The New York Times:

"Deer Could Be a Reservoir of Old Coronavirus Variants, Study Suggests"

Quote:

The alpha and gamma variants of the coronavirus continued to circulate and evolve in white-tailed deer, even after they stopped spreading widely among people, a new study suggests.

Whether the variants are still circulating in deer remains unknown. “That’s the big question,” said Dr. Diego Diel, a virus expert at Cornell University and an author of the study, which was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on Tuesday.

But the findings, which are based on samples collected through December 2021, provide more evidence that deer could be a reservoir of the virus and a potential source of future variants, which could spill back into human populations.

Fortunately, we have no current plans to visit a petting zoo.

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Kitty4670
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01 Feb 2023, 8:50 pm

How can covid be over in May just because someone said it will be over? I haven’t been reading the news about covid, I don’t know what going on. I’m been having a very very hard time.

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02 Feb 2023, 9:23 am

Kitty4670 wrote:

How can covid be over in May just because someone said it will be over? I haven’t been reading the news about covid, I don’t know what going on. I’m been having a very very hard time.

When you look at the death rate from COVID, there are some trends. In the winter in the northern states of the U.S. the death rates climb very significantly. They did in the year 2020 and 2021. But as we go through the winter of 2022/2023, the rates are no longer increasing at a fast rate. They are down. People may still be getting COVID, but in general they are not dying. They may suffer from the virus but they come out the other end.

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02 Feb 2023, 9:41 am

I came across an interesting article about the effects from Long Term COVID.
As COVID Infections Continue, Long COVID Numbers Rise

Most people who get COVID at the moment are recovering from the condition. But some people are experiencing some longer lasting side effects. These are called LONG TERM COVID.

In this article they define and explore this condition. Their bottom line is

"The best way not to have long COVID is not to have COVID at all," says Leora Horwitz, MD, a professor of population health and medicine at New York University's Grossman School of Medicine. A high-quality mask lowers the probability of infection by any respiratory virus, and vaccination reduces the likelihood of severe illness, hospitalization, and death in those who become infected.

However, mask-wearing is increasingly rare; only about two–thirds of Americans have had the primary series of two vaccinations, and the effectiveness of those shots has waned significantly with the passage of time and the appearance of new virus variants. Only about 16 percent of those eligible have had the updated bivalent booster that offers the strongest protection against known variants.

That is especially unfortunate, given recent encouraging data demonstrating the boosters' effectiveness: In a large Israeli study of more than 700,000 participants age 65 and older who either had the bivalent vaccine or did not, there was an 81% reduction in Covid hospitalizations and an 86% reduction in deaths. During the 70-day study period, there were 73 deaths in the control group (who had not had the bivalent booster) versus one in a person who received it (among approximately 622,000 and 85,000 seniors, respectively). The results of two CDC studies published last year were similar.

I can agree with this approach. If you are elderly (over 50) or have some pre existing conditions such as diabetes, then it is important to get the new booster (that provides protection from the Omicron variant). This group of people need to take a little more precautions to prevent being infected. This pandemic is almost at an end and you do not want to be one of the last people to get COVID.

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