NY Primary results | Boy that was fast...!

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The polls closed at 9PM ET

Trump did a clean sweep of NY by a very large margin, which should net him all of the 95 GOP delegates leaving Cruz in the dust.

The Democratic vote is too early to call.

It's over Clinton takes NY by storm with a win of ~20%+

Bernie is screaming foul.

Here are the latest estimates (94% of votes in) from the New York Times.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016 ... .html?_r=0

GOP:

Trump: 89
Kasich: 3
Cruz: Apparently, he has as little need for "New York delegates" as for "New York values", so...



... he settles for 0

DEM:

Clinton: 135 (+ 34 superdelegates)
Sanders: 104

Anyway, Clinton has now comfortably defended her +200 pledged delegate lead over Sanders (1442 vs. 1198). Given that the DEM primary delegates are assigned via proportional votes, it will be almost impossible for Sanders to catch up with Clinton now. With super-delegates included, it's basically over (1911 vs. 1229).

As for the GOP, Trump now has a commanding lead over Cruz (845 vs. 559), and the fact that Cruz apparently couldn't pick up a single delegate in New York State may serve as a reminder of his low electability.

Anyway, this was essentially a near-perfect outcome for Hillary Clinton.

She defeated Sanders by a larger margin (almost 16 points at 57.9 to 42.1) than the latest polls had suggested (one recent poll had her winning by only a 6 point margin).

The latest polls also suggest that Clinton will defeat Trump easily in the general election:


Source: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5491.html (dynamic link, may update)

And the fact that Trump won so handily in New York (and the devastation he continues to cause within the GOP) also gives Clinton added momentum for what has now become an increasingly realistic secondary goal for the Democrats:

Retaking the Senate in 2016.

Clinton still has several big hurdles:

1. She has to dodge the criminal investigation.
2. She has to hope Bernie supporters are excited enough to go vote for her (despite Bernie trashing her personally).
3. She has to defend her right wing economics vs Trump's left wing economics in the presidential debates.
4. She has to withstand Trump's eventual negative ad campaign.

"Susan Sarandon: Sanders supporters mulling Trump vote over Clinton"
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/201 ... -trump-vo/

1) She isn't going to be charged with any wrong doing, because it would open up the majority of Congress, previous Secretaries (not just state department) and top brass in the military for doing the exact same thing as Hillary.
2) Sanders supporters are mostly new young white voters who are under 25, who will probably just stay home and vote when Bernie loses. It's U.S. tradition that the majority under 25 don't vote for some reason and then whine about government.
3) She isn't right wing on economics or anything really, her voting record in the U.S. Senate is nearly identical to Bernie.
The GOP has spent 20 years blasting her for left wing ideology, socialism and Hillarycare.
Donald Trump hasn't created and revealed an economic policy of any sort yet. We really don't know where he stand other than in favor of mass deportation and building a wall. The only thing Trump is Left on is Healthcare.
If he goes left, he is dead to the GOP voters.

4)She can easily withstand a negativity from Trump, since she survived the 1990s with the GOP throwing her government takeover of healthcare, Whitewater scandal, her husbands affairs, Monica Lewinsky, Ken Star investigation into her and her husband over stuff, her husband's perjury under oath, her husband's impeachment trail, and lastly she being heavily involved in her husband's presidency.

She also received the GOP focus while she was running for U.S. Senate, her time in the U.S. Senate, her run in 2008 and lastly her tenure as SoS.
She has survived the 8 Benghazi committees (being cleared each time), which the GOP admitted on This Week (ABC show) to being designed to run through the November election to destroy her.

Each Benghazi committee saw her popularity rise in the eyes of the public.
Though just recently the GOP blamed the Democrats for wasting money on the Benghazi investigations and committees claiming it's the Democrats fault.

There is no way in hell Bernie is capable of surviving the full weight of the GOP attention and Trump.
He'd be eaten alive.
He already complains Hillary and DNC are too nasty against him costing him votes stating it's not fair.

Bernie would crumble before Trump, just like JEB, Kasiach, Rubio, Floriena, etc...
Trump took down all of his GOP rivals on his own, though Christie did help in Rubio demise.

Bernie would have a heart attack and Clinton would have a stroke (she has some bad health problems) from Trump's onslaught. He hasn't even started on Clinton.

Trump will defeat Hillary, she is criminal and the embodiment of all that is wrong with politics in America. Hillary has no credibility when it comes to trade, she has no credibility on foreign policy, on social issues she goes which ever which way might give her more votes at that given moment.

Bernie and Trump have brought out a lot of new voters to the polls. Many of whom have never voted before, including many older voters. Disenfranchised voters who have watched Nafta and every other bad job losing deal since gut our middle class and put the quality of lives of millions of Americans in decline.

They are clearly tired of establishment politics, as well as establishment politicians who willingly sell the American people down the river while they themselves feed at the money trough placed in front of them by their corporate masters.



I agree that Hillary has no credibility whatsoever. The Clinton's are the biggest criminals America has ever seen. They should both be locked away for life with the crimes they both have already committed. Not to mention any future crimes they will commit should Hillary become president.

Trump currently has an unfavorable rating of 63.7%, the highest of any politician ever. The RNC and many republicans have already written off this election cycle and are willing to vote against Trump should he become the nominee, which is edging closer and closer to becoming a certainty.

Trump has also pissed off just about every minority group out there. He can't win without the Black vote, the Latino vote, the list goes on and on...

Unless the F.B.I. indicts Hillary in the middle of the general election I just don't see how Trump even stands a chance at winning.

Cruz and others are expecting The Donald to be short of a majority of delegates. Which means Trump will not be nominated on the first ballot. Under the RNC rules, the "Trump" delegates are no longer pledged to Trump on susequent ballots, so their votes can be bargained for.

Many Trump won delegates have been opened about not supporting Trump.

Trump still has a decent chance of securing the necessary amount before July.

Cruz has said he won't support a Trump nomination, claiming he won't support the party and honor the pledge to not run 3rd party.
Trump says he won't support anyone else who gets the nomination through a brokered convention nor will he support the party and honor the pledge to not run 3rd party

It's no big secret the GOP leadership has a plan to stop Trump from getting the nomination.
Insiders have reported the GOP leadership is planning to nullify the primary vote if Trump wins the nomination through the primary process, picking someone else instead.
The GOP leadership and establishment is willing to do whatever it takes to prevent Trump from winning, because they truly believe he will destroy the party (which they believe he is a RINO/secret Democrat).

One of them will run 3rd party in the end, splitting the GOP vote.

Sanders and Trump want to end NAFTA, as well as other free trade deals. Clinton wants to maintain NAFTA.
Sanders and Trump want limits on immigration, because they say it hurts jobs (e.g., curtailing H1B) , Clinton does not.
Sanders and Trump want to impose tariffs on China to protect workers, Clinton does not.
Sanders and Trump have expressed worries that illegal immigrants are taking American jobs, Clinton does not.

Clinton will have to defend her right wing economics of free trade, open immigration, no tariffs to protect jobs against the Sanders & Trump left wing economics of "helping the worker".

This is why big manufacturing unions are considering supporting Trump, and why Clinton is said to be losing the blue-collar states to Trump.

Sanders has voted for raising Visa caps, I didn't see him opposing the latest raising of the caps in the most recent government funding bill (the raising of the cap was imposed by the tea party wing of the GOP).

Trump has benefited greatly from NAFTA, Visa workers and illegal immigrants, especially his company.

Sanders only won Michigan, because 90,000 Registered Republicans voted for him (Michigan is an open primary state) according to the state's data.
A lot of Registered Republicans have crossed party lines to try to defeat Hillary in hopes that Sanders would get the nomination leading to a conservative blow out in November.
Bernie has also flip flopped on issues as much as any other Congress as well as lying.
His biggest donor has been the NRA, which Sanders has regularly given into them and voted against Gun control and Background checks. He also refused to vote for giving law enforcement the power to go after terrorists.

Trump cannot afford to support left leaning ideology, if he does his voters will abandon him for it.
His voting base made up of mainly GOP conservatives (same as Cruz/GOP itself)
He already has the GOP congressional delegation vowing to block anything he supports or is willing to sign if he becomes president.
Trump has lied as much as Cruz this primary season, which is more than Hillary and Sanders has lied just as much as Hillary has.



Kaisach has been the most honest, which is why he is dead in the water and hated by the primary voters (Voters like being told what they want to hear).

Canada and Mexico have promised they'd do whatever they can to punish the U.S., if the U.S. repeals NAFTA.
Canada is the biggest trading partner with the U.S. and they are more than willing to reinstate tariffs and other measures on U.S. companies and Canadian companies who do business in the U.S. and/or with U.S. companies.
Same goes for the other countries who have free trade deals with the U.S.

Do you really want to see U.S. companies and products being forced out of international markets by countries?
Do you want China to replace the U.S. as the world's super power?
Do you want to pay a lot more for your goods and services?
Do you want to see U.S. teachers make more than $60,000 a year?
Do you want to see price of cars go up as auto companies are forced to pay union wages instead of foreign wages?
Do you want more people to have good health insurance, which will cause longer lines at the doctor offices and pharmacies?

This will all happen if the U.S. pulls out of trade agreements and China will fill the void with the rest of the world realigning to China over night.

The global economy would collapse over night into a full depression, eventually pulling the U.S. down with it (repeat of what triggered the Great Depression)

NAFTA needs improvements and some reforms of certain provisions, maybe even temporarily kicking Mexico out.

Nearly all products and services that enter the U.S. from most countries with no duty/tariffs per WTO treaty and rules
Nearly all products and services that the U.S. exports overseas to other countries, enters no duty/tariff per WTO treaty and rules.

These are the biggest issues facing the U.S. Worker and Economy:

1) The deal that lets all stuff come in from China practically duty free
2) China, Japan and other Asian countries engage in currency manipulation, keep their currencies devalued against the U.S. dollar making their products that much cheaper.
3)Trans Pacific Partnership becoming law (requires the U.S. and all other countries who are party to it to ratify it before it becomes law). The word out of Congress is the GOP plan to ram rod it through after the election in the lame duck session to prevent the Democrats from blocking it.
4) The rapidly cooling Chinese Economy
5)The slowing economies around the world
6) The rapid rise in the value of the U.S. Dollar against all major currencies
7) The U.S. consumers and companies are not spending enough to swing the U.S. back to full growth.
8] The Federal Reserve has to play central bank to the world, due to the U.S. Dollar being the international currency by treaty requirements. This really hurts the U.S. economy. But the decision was made for power in 1945.


Anyways I have no horse in this primary race. I just don't want a conservative victory come November.

Well, the majority of Americans free trade and immigration - including granting legal status to illegal immigrants.

... So it is unlikely that Clinton would be forced on the defensive on these issues.

Her biggest headache here is probably that she has already given too many concessions to Bernie Sanders on trade issues which may alienate moderate voters who are on the fence about voting Democrat or Republican...

Good posts xenocity.

I wish Sanders had won but will vote for Clinton over Trump or Cruz.

if in the end the kochs somehow manage to install The Ooze as POTUS [12th amendment ploy?], that would be a nightmare come true.

LOL, you don't know much about the Electoral College do you? The election is already over, and Clinton has won. It's really easy to predict who will be the next president.

Here is the map. Look at it and tell me which non-red states will switch over to vote for Trump, and why. Trump needs to get 79 more Electoral College votes to get elected. Which states is he going to get them from? Hint: The only reason the Republicans are even voting for a lunatic like Trump, is because they know they have already lost.

2016 Presidential Election Map