Satellite data shows up climate forecasts

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Pepe
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11 Apr 2021, 3:13 am

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Outsiders Weather and Ice Age Watch: Satellite data shows up climate forecasts
11/04/2021|8min

Sky News host Rowan Dean says satellite data has revealed global warming has mostly occurred below the predicted average of over 100 climate change models.

https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_624 ... 0forecasts

GGPViper
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11 Apr 2021, 4:01 am

Rowan Dean has no scientific credentials whatsoever.

He has a lot of scumbag credentials, however, being particularly fond of racist attacks against Indigenous Australians Australians and Asians:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rowan_Dean

kitesandtrainsandcats
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11 Apr 2021, 4:43 am

I have seen so many climate conversations quickly become what amounts to personality cult flame wars between a pro-personality cult and an anti-personality cult that it really is quite repulsive.

Data and documentation - the thing has its entire foundation in data and documentation, so give me data and documentation.
And so very often is has been up to me to go find it for myself.

Ah, here's a find, https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/ ... -22-years/

Quote:

... AAP FactCheck analysed Mr Dean's statement that data showed there had been no net warming of the Earth in the past 22 years.

Mr Dean did not respond to emails asking for the basis of his statement. However, in the Sky News segment he said the claim was based on figures from US agency the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The graph Mr Dean referred to shows satellite temperature data for the lower atmosphere developed by researchers at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH).

The NOAA publishes a record of this temperature data, which it describes as taken in the lower troposphere - or the lowest layer of Earth's atmosphere.

These figures showed temperatures in 1998 and 2020 were close to the same. There was a spike in global temperatures in 1998, which was 0.48C warmer than the 1981-2010 average, used as a baseline. In 2020, the temperature was 0.49C warmer than the baseline.

However, this comparison does not show that there has been no net global warming since 1998.

The same data reveals temperatures have steadily increased since 1979 when longer-term trends are compared. Comparing five-year averages, from 1994 to 1998 and 2016 to 2020, shows a significant rise, from an anomaly of 0.094C above baseline in 1994-98 to 0.418C in 2016-20.

The 10-year average shows temperatures from 1989-1998 were -0.019C below baseline, while 2011-2020 temperatures were 0.275C above baseline.
...

Quote:

... Prof Renwick said surface temperature records taken with land- and ship-based thermometers were generally more reliable than satellite data, and they showed more marked warming.

NASA also said surface temperatures were more accurate than satellite data as satellites measured the brightness of Earth's atmosphere to establish temperature and required complex modelling.

Australian National University Climate Change Institute director and IPCC vice chair Mark Howden said there were four main sources of global temperature data: NOAA, University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit, NASA and Berkley Earth and all showed sustained and rapid warming since the 1970s.

"These reliable records show that the statement that there has been no warming over the past 22 years is simply wrong," Prof Howden said. ...

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Pepe
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11 Apr 2021, 5:09 am

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Larry Sanger, the co-founder of Wikipedia, published a blog post this month declaring that the online encyclopedia’s “neutral point of view” policy is “dead” due to the rampant left-wing bias of the site.

Quote:

Wikipedia co-founder Larry Sanger slams the site's left wing 'woke' bias and claims its days of 'neutrality are long gone'

GGPViper
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11 Apr 2021, 5:34 am

kitesandtrainsandcats wrote:

Data and documentation - the thing has its entire foundation in data and documentation, so give me data and documentation.

OK.

Land-based data on climate change is - as mentioned in your own post - more accurate than satellite data.
https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/49/which-m ... rom-space/
https://skepticalscience.com/Satellite- ... meters.htm

And here is the *actual data* - not some garbage opinion by a third rate TV presenter as in the OP:

The 100 year, 50 year 20 year and 10-year trends are displayed, left-to right, top to bottom.

Sources:
https://skepticalscience.com/trend.php
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

As shown above, global warming is accelerating.

kraftiekortie
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11 Apr 2021, 5:59 am

Natural climate change has been accelerated by man-caused actions.

Double Retired
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11 Apr 2021, 11:40 am

OK. Am I supposed to be happy that climate change is happening slower than expected, or concerned that we don't have models that accurately predict the rate of climate change?

Unfortunately, it seems everything does say climate change is happening. Sigh. I'm pretty sure that's not something to be happy about.

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Mr Reynholm
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12 Apr 2021, 11:27 am

Climate has been changing forever. Even before man walked the Earth. Who's to say that climate change is a bad thing?

Pepe
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12 Apr 2021, 4:48 pm

Quote:

Al Gore’s Climate Sequel Misses a Few Inconvenient Facts
Eleven years after his first climate-change film, he’s still trying to scare you into saving the world.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/al-gores-c ... 1501193349

cberg
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12 Apr 2021, 4:52 pm

As opposed to Pepe trying to scare us into doing... nothing? Playing devil's advocate for polluters just means you'll be breathing more pollutants.

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12 Apr 2021, 5:11 pm

Scientific American: "We Are Living in a Climate Emergency, and We’re Going to Say So"

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shlaifu
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15 Apr 2021, 6:53 pm

Mr Reynholm wrote:

Climate has been changing forever. Even before man walked the Earth. Who's to say that climate change is a bad thing?

The wet-bulb temperature is what you get when you wrap a thermometer in a wet piece of cloth, so the water evaporation cools down the thermometer. It indicates how far your body can cool itself through sweating. A wet bulb temperature of 35°C (98°F) is lethal, because your body is unable to get rid of excess heat by sweating. No shade or fan can cool you down, no drinking lots of water.

Obviously, for a place to reach a high wet bulb temperature, it has to be warm AND humid.

Some densely populated places in tropical zones are predicted to reach wet bulb temperatures above 35°C until the end of the century, meaning they will be too warm and humid for humans to go outside of byildings with air conditioning.
That means all those people will have to move somewhere cooler. Imagine large amounts of people fleeing from unlivable areas to cooler places in the North, like Europe, or the US.

Maybe you are a multiculturalist who thinks Northern countries can and should take up tens or hundreds of millions of reugees, than you're right - maybe it's not so bad.

Personally, I'm very much worried of the rightwing reactions to tens or hundreds of millions of refugees.

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15 Apr 2021, 7:03 pm

Mr Reynholm wrote:

Climate has been changing forever. Even before man walked the Earth. Who's to say that climate change is a bad thing?

Very true. And species have been coming and going since life first appeared on Earth. Whose to say one more species extinction is a bad thing? (Personally, I'm opposed to species extinctions--especially my species!)

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15 Apr 2021, 7:59 pm

Mr Reynholm wrote:

Climate has been changing forever. Even before man walked the Earth. Who's to say that climate change is a bad thing?

That's perfectly true. However it doesn't mean we aren't artificially accelerating the rate of change beyond its normal rate. The problem is, it's very hard to tell what's "normal" and natural, and what isn't. And that's before you get into the whole debate about whether all human actions are, by default, natural (because we are, like everything else, born of nature) and therefore there's no actual distinction between the two.

TBH I'm not sure it really matters. The bigger question is, if we carry on as we are, how will it pan out? Versus if we can change, realistically how much difference could it make?

The planet will carry on in some shape or form regardless. Just not necessarily with humans still living on it. If there's a high degree of probability we're heading in a direction where we'll make the planet uninhabitable for ourselves, when that otherwise wouldn't have been the case, it needs addressing. With some urgency. And so far that's what the majority of climate scientists are saying.

It's also one of those things where, if the theories do eventually prove to be wrong, very little will have been lost if we did respond as best we could. Whereas if they were right and we did nothing, we're screwed.

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05 Jul 2021, 4:43 pm

For most of the 200 000 years of Homo sapiens existence, we were hunter gatherers. 12 000 years ago the world climate stabilized enough for us to develop agriculture. More recently we developed power resources and technology. That tripod of agriculture+energy+technology is what allows us to have eight billion people now.

It's a good thing that we don't have to rely on hunting and gathering any more, as we've destroyed most of those resources.

The climate is changing. If it's natural, then it's amazing that it coincidentally happened at a time when humans pump a hundred times more green house gasses into the atmosphere than all the volcanoes on earth, and we've cleared enough trees to effect rainfall patterns. But hey, for the deniers, sure we had nothing to do with it.

Anyway, one of the legs of the tripod, agriculture, is about to find itself dealing with the death of the 12 000 year old Goldilock's Zone. Yep, Goldilocks is a farmer. Eight billion people rely upon her for their daily bread. And she just got the bad news... She's terminal.

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Pepe
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05 Jul 2021, 7:18 pm

kraftiekortie wrote:

Natural climate change has been accelerated by man-caused actions.

BTW, based on recent data, while the earth is still warming, it is at a much less significant rate than the climate modelling has projected.
This year has even gone backwards, I believe, if memory serves me correctly.

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