Are we at the edge of another pandemic? H5N1

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Four months ago, we wrote about the surge of the H5N1 bird flu strain that had by then already killed tens of millions of birds in various parts of the U.S. and land and marine animals in the U.S. and other countries. Since then, the avian flu has jumped to cows and goats, surprising experts. It has been reported in 34 herds of dairy cows in nine states, but the outbreak is unquestionably much more extensive than that; fragments of bird flu virus genomic RNA have been detected in more than 20 percent of retail milk samples tested in a nationally representative study. Also, recently released viral sequences from animal infections provided by USDA indicate that the outbreak likely began in December 2023, with a single spillover incident from birds into cows.

Although these findings surprised health officials, they say there is at present little concern that milk containing infectious virus will make it into the food supply. Dairies must destroy milk from sick cows, and pasteurization is believed to kill the virus in milk from infected cows that have not yet been identified as ill. Sensitive tests have not detected infectious virus in milk, but federal officials are advising not to drink raw milk or eat raw milk-based cheese.

A worrisome development is that a man working on a Texas dairy farm was diagnosed with illness from the avian flu strain, presumably from contact with an infected cow. It is only the second known case in the U.S. of a human contracting avian flu.

Source: Avian Flu Virus is Spreading and Has Been Found in Raw Milk from Infected Cows.

While this strain of bird flu is not new, it had never before been found in cattle. It has now affected herds in at least eight states, with some cows showing reduced milk production and discolored, viscous milk.

At the moment it is believed by the USDA, the FDA, and the CDC that pasteurization would kill the viruses. Most milk used in the U.S. is pasteurized. But raw milk and some forms of unpasteurized cheeses are sold in the U.S.

Not all cheeses in the U.S. are pasteurized. Generally, the following cheeses are unpasteurized:
-- Brie
-- Camembert
-- Feta
-- Gorgonzola
-- Mexican cheese

A multi-state outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (H5N1) bird flu in dairy cows was first reported on March 25, 2024. This is the first time that these bird flu viruses were found in cattle. CDC confirmed one human HPAI A(H5N1) infection that had exposure to dairy cattle in Texas that were presumed to be infected with the virus. While thought to be rare, this exposure to HPAI A (H5N1) bird flu virus is the first instance of likely mammal to human transmission.

Source: Current H5N1 Bird Flu Situation in Dairy Cows

"Are milk and ground beef safe from bird flu? What the latest testing tells us."

May 1, 2024

The FDA is announcing an additional set of results from our national commercial milk sampling study underway in coordination with USDA. The study includes 297 total retail dairy samples. New preliminary results of egg inoculation tests on a second set of 201 quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR)-positive retail dairy samples, including cottage cheese and sour cream, in addition to fluid milk, show that pasteurization is effective in inactivating HPAI.

This additional preliminary testing did not detect any live, infectious virus.

In addition to preliminary results released late last week on an initial set of 96 retail milk samples, these results reaffirm our assessment that the commercial milk supply is safe.

To ensure the safety of milk-derived products for our youngest populations, the FDA also tested samples of retail powdered infant formula and powdered milk products marketed as toddler formula. All qPCR results of formula testing were negative, indicating no detection of HPAI viral fragments or virus in powdered formula products so no further testing was required for these samples. The FDA is continuing to identify additional products that may be tested.

The FDA is also continuing to test samples of pooled raw milk that has been routed to pasteurization and processing for commercial use. This will be used as a basis to characterize potential virus levels that pasteurization may encounter – and will be used to inform studies to further validate pasteurization.

As this situation evolves, the FDA will continue to consider all ongoing scientific research related to the effectiveness of pasteurization for HPAI in bovine milk. We are also committed to continued surveillance of milk production, processing and pasteurization to help ensure the safety of the milk supply. Our state partners are integral to this process, and we are working with them on a continual basis. We will also continue working with our state co-regulators on managing this emerging disease.

The FDA continues to advise strongly against the consumption of raw milk and recommends that industry does not manufacture or sell raw milk or raw milk products.

Source: Updates on Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)

So at the moment, avoid unpasteurized milk and some cheeses that have not gone through the pasteurization process.

It seems like there are several problems with the approach being used to contain the new variant of the H5N1.

1. There are many people in the U.S. that use unpasteurized milk. For example the Amish and Mennonite communities.

2. Many young mothers breast feed their young child. If the mother becomes infected, does it pass onto the child?

3. There are some forms of cheese that are not pasteurized. You can go to any supermarket and buy them off the shelf.

I guess I better start hoarding more toilet paper. And get used to soy milk or almond milk or whatever.

I always drink pasteurized milk, the claims that raw milk is better for you is a bunch of nonsense. But people believe in nonsense because science bad, so they'll be just as bad as they were during covid. Even if they do drink pasteurized milk, maybe they'll even open and drink from milk cartons in the store without buying them, like a bunch of brain dead kindergarten kids.

Bird Flu: What We Know So Far about H5N1 in the United States

Just over a month ago, in Texas, a person tested positive for the highly contagious influenza H5N1 strain, otherwise known as highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) or “bird flu” or “avian flu.” (The highly pathogenic terminology refers to the virus when infecting birds, not humans.)

HPAI can be transmitted by wild birds to domestic poultry and other bird and animal species. It is somewhat uncommon to see avian flu infections in humans, making the recent case of the human infection in Texas notable. The patient, who had exposure to dairy cows, reported eye redness (common with conjunctivitis) as their only symptom.

This one infection does not change the H5N1 bird flu human health risk assessment for the U.S. general public, which the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) still considers to be low. However, the CDC is closely monitoring the situation and using its flu surveillance systems to monitor H5N1 activity in people. The last case of a human infection with H5N1 was in 2022, in Colorado, which was linked to exposure to poultry.

The presence of H5N1 in dairy cows was first reported in Texas and Kansas by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on March 25, 2024. As of April 26, the number of cases of H5N1 flu that had been detected in wild birds was 9,296. There were 90,827,876 cases in poultry and 34 dairy herds have been infected. Nine states have reported infected cattle: Idaho, Colorado, Michigan, Texas, New Mexico, South Dakota, Kansas, North Carolina, and Ohio.

The FDA posted an update on April 25 with information regarding the analysis of influenza in milk. These data were from a commercial milk sampling study from across the country (297 samples of retail dairy products from 38 states) in coordination with USDA. The initial results showed that about 1 in 5 of the retail samples tested were qPCR-positive for HPAI viral fragments (with a greater proportion of positive results coming from milk in areas with infected herds).

The agency emphasized that “positive results do not necessarily represent actual virus that may be a risk to consumers.” In order to further clarify the risk to consumers, two questions need to be answered: 1) are intact viruses present in the milk and 2) if so, are they infectious?

The FDA is conducting further testing, including egg inoculation tests which can determine the presence of infectious virus. On April 26, the FDA published an update with additional results. They noted that “preliminary results of egg inoculation tests on quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR)-positive retail milk samples show that pasteurization is effective in inactivating HPAI.”

To clarify, the testing did not detect any live, infectious virus. In addition, samples of retail powdered infant formula, and powdered milk products marketed as toddler formula, were all negative using qPCR testing.

The FDA will continue testing. Samples that test positive with PCR will undergo egg inoculation tests. But because the early testing indicates no sign of infectious virus in retail milk, the FDA concluded that there is no reason to think that the commercial milk supply is unsafe. They also stressed that these results do not apply to unpasteurized milk, which carry a higher risk.

I wish I understand what I’m reading.

^ It's just the news typically telling us for the trillionth time why we should all be terrified and there no reason to go on living.

Now this threat is probably not just in the U.S. but rather a worldwide threat.

Globally, this variant is appearing in several parts of the world: Cambodia, China, Lao PDR and Viet Nam.

World Health Organization: Avian Influenza Weekly Update

Between 26 April to 2 May 2024, one new case of human infection with avian influenza A(H5N1) virus was reported from China to WHO in the Western Pacific Region.

From 1 January 2003 to 28 March 2024, a total of 254 cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H5N1) virus have been reported from four countries within the Western Pacific Region. Of these cases, 141 were fatal, resulting in a case fatality rate (CFR) of 56%. The last cases in the Western Pacific Region were reported from Viet Nam, with an onset date of 11 March 2024

Globally, from 1 January 2003 to 28 March 2024, 888 cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H5N1) virus were reported from 23 countries. Of these 888 cases, 463 were fatal (CFR of 52%)

There was an interesting study that looked at H5N1 threat. It discussed data from current Waste Water analysis and also a real breakout of similar origin in a population of minks that occurred two years ago.

The bottom line is this threat may be very limited at the moment. But it is something to keep an eye on.

Last message was double displayed.

So should we all take the cyanide, or what? I've got no real reason to go on existing, anyway.