Syrian Revolution

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Syrian rebel forces on Saturday made major advances in their offensive against Syrian government forces, with reports saying rebels were closing in on the capital Damascus from the north, east, and south, as regime troops reportedly pulled back from bases around the country to fortify positions around the capital city.

CNN reported Saturday that the US was increasingly believing that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime could collapse within days. Reuters similarly cited American and other Western officials saying the government could fall within the next week. Israel is reportedly preparing for the possibility that the regime may collapse.

The rebels also said Saturday that they had seized the regions of Quneitra and Daraa near the border with Israel, as the Israel Defense Forces vowed a strong response in the event that they “turn in our direction.”

Meanwhile, rebel Druze militias overran most of the army bases in Syria’s southern province of Suweida along the border with Jordan.

Rebel commander Hassan Abdel Ghani, with the alliance led by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) that launched the offensive in the country’s northwest, said on Saturday that “our forces have begun the final phase of encircling the capital, Damascus.”

Reports said that Syria’s military withdrew from bases in the south and east, including the major T-4 airbase near the ancient city of Palmyra.

T-4, also known as Tiyas, is believed to be one of two major airports — the other being Damascus International Airport — where Iranian cargo airlines carrying weapons set for Hezbollah in Lebanon often land.

In recent years, Israel has attacked the T-4 airbase on multiple occasions, and defense officials have claimed in the past that the base is used by Iranian forces as part of the Islamic Republic’s efforts to entrench militarily in Syria, something Israel has vowed to prevent.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor with a history of unreliability, claimed that the army withdrew from positions in the Damascus countryside roughly 10 kilometers (six miles) from the capital, though the assertion was denied by the Syrian defense ministry, which said: “There is no truth to news claiming our armed forces, present in all areas of the Damascus countryside, have withdrawn.

Amid swirling reports that Assad had left Damascus, Assad’s office denied them and claimed that he is continuing to perform his duties from the capital.

The office condemned “rumors and false news about President Bashar al-Assad leaving Damascus,” adding that Assad “is following up on his work and national and constitutional duties from the capital.”

However, CNN cited a source who said the president was nowhere to be found in Damascus and may possibly have fled.

Earlier on Saturday, pro-rebel protesters brought down the statue of Hafez al-Assad, the late father of the Syrian president, in a main square in the Damascus suburb of Jermana, nearly 10 kilometers from the center of the city.

A rebel commander told Reuters they have advanced to within 20 kilometers (12 miles) of Damascus, and sources said that rebel forces entered the key city of Homs from the north and east, just one day after they took over the nearby city of Hama.

Homs is only around 15 miles from the border with Lebanon, and a rebel capture of the city would effectively cut off the key government-held port cities of Latakia and Tartus, where major military bases, as well as Iranian and Russian forces, are located.

Israel’s military announced on Saturday that it was sending reinforcements to further bolster its positions on the Golan’s border with Syria in response to the rebel advances, after sending troops to the area on Friday. The IDF said it “will continue to act to protect the State of Israel and its citizens.”

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday: “There is now a new reality in Syria, politically and diplomatically. And Syria belongs to Syrians with all its ethnic, sectarian and religious elements.”

“The people of Syria are the ones who will decide the future of their own country,” Erdogan said in a speech in the southern Turkish city of Gaziantep.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Saturday that he and the foreign ministers of Turkey and Iran had agreed in a meeting in Doha that there had to be an immediate end to “hostilities” in Syria.

The three countries have been involved since 2017 in the so-called Astana format talks seeking a political settlement in Syria.

Lavrov added that Moscow wanted to see dialogue between the Syrian government and what he called the “legitimate opposition” in Syria, and called Islamist insurgent group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which has led much of the rebel advances, terrorists regardless of whether they said they had changed their views.

It was “inadmissible to allow terrorist groups” to take control of Syrian lands, said Lavrov.

Asked how the situation in Syria would develop and what would happen to Russian military bases there, Lavrov said he was “not in the business of guessing.”

On Friday, Iran started evacuating military commanders and other officials from Syria, The New York Times reported, in a sign of Tehran’s wavering confidence in Assad’s regime amid the rebels’ lightning advance.

Starting Friday morning, Iran has been transferring civilians, military personnel, and some diplomats and their families to Iraq, Lebanon and the Syrian government’s stronghold in the country’s western coastal region, according to regional and Iranian officials cited by The Times.

Some officials were said to depart on flights to Tehran, while others left by land to Lebanon, Iraq and the Syrian port city of Latakia.

Russia and the United States also called on their citizens to leave Syria immediately.

The Times quoted Mehdi Rahmati, a prominent Iranian analyst, as saying: “Iran has realized that it cannot manage the situation in Syria right now with any military operation, and this option is off the table.”

“We cannot fight as an advisory and support force if Syria’s army itself does not want to fight,” he said.

Syrian rebels said on Sunday they have begun entering the capital Damascus without any sign of army deployments.

"We celebrate with the Syrian people the news of freeing our prisoners and releasing their chains and announcing the end of the era of injustice in Sednaya prison," they added.
Sednaya is a large military prison on the outskirts Damascus where the Syrian government detained thousands.

Syrian rebels announced they gained full control over the key city of Homs early on Sunday after only a day of fighting, leaving President Bashar al-Assad's 24-year rule dangling by a thread as insurgents marched on Damascus.

Intense sounds of shooting were heard in the center of the Damascus, two residents said on Sunday, although it was not immediately clear what was the source of the shooting.

In rural areas southwest of the capital, local youths and former rebels took advantage of the loss of authority to come to the streets in acts of defiance against the Assad family's authoritarian rule.

Earlier in the night, the Syrian Republican Guard were reported to have fled the Al-Maliki neighborhood of the city, where Bashar al-Assad's house is located in Damascus.

Here we go again. Assad's government certainly had its flaws but at least it was mostly secular.

Now Syria stands a strong possibility of falling to religious fundamentalism.

Damascus has fallen.

Indeed, suddenly Assad looks like a puppy in comparaison.

Though it was only a matter of time for that to happen, the vast majority Syrian populace is very… very fundamentalist (in Sunnah way) to the core*.

I am sure many joined the Ahrar el Cham (whom many of them were certainly ex-ISIS members rebranded) while it was advancing; I am sure it was like a snow ball effect.

*Two floors of the bloc where I live have been rented by Syrian refugees for years, and I can tell they have been always extremely fundamentalist.
ie - Any girl above 9 would be veiled.
- Their boys tend to quit schools at a very young age.
- When their men are absent, they absolutely refuse to open the door, even in emergencies—even to other women! For instance, once there was water flooding from their floor to ours. A neighbor (a woman) was knocking on their door to address it, but one of the women inside was like “We can’t; the men are not here.”

They’ve lived here for several years now, yet I’ve observed no effort from them as a whole to integrate or adapt. It seems inevitable that they would support groups like ISIS or Ahrar el Sham; at least this particular demography of Syrians.

Over the past several days, the main Syrian opposition force, Hayat Tahrir-al Sham (HTS), has carried out a lightning-fast offensive, pushing Syrian government troops out of the country’s second-largest city, Aleppo, and moving on to Hama.

The surprise attack exposed the weakness of the regime of Bashar al-Assad, which had survived a 2011-2016 civil war with the help of Iran and Russia. With little to no resistance from the government forces, HTS – an offshoot of al-Qaeda – and affiliated groups were able to seize control over Aleppo within a day and Hama shortly afterwards.

Assad turned to Russia amid the HTS assault, but Moscow – unlike in 2014-2016 – is bogged down in Ukraine and unable to provide substantial military support for Syria apart from a few air strikes. Of greater concern to Damascus, its other staunch ally, Iran, alongside Iran’s Lebanese partner, Hezbollah, have been greatly weakened since a regional war was touched off by Hamas’s attack on Israel more than a year ago. Israel’s response has included a new invasion of Lebanon and missile and drone strikes that decapitated Hezbollah and destroyed nearly all of its military infrastructure.

Although Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rushed to Damascus and met with Assad on Dec. 1 and went to Ankara the next day to meet his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, the trips were a poor attempt through diplomatic channels to counteract HTS’s capture of Aleppo and further advancement toward Hama and Homs.

If Iran and Russia were caught on the back foot, the same cannot be said of Turkey. Footage from opposition-controlled Alepposhowed some rebel fighters draping themselves with the Turkish flag, putting a renewed spotlight on Turkey’s role and influence over Syria’s main opposition forces. Although Turkish authorities demonstrated restraint and denied any involvement in the new rebel offensive, Turkey’s leverage over these anti-Assad and anti-Kurdish Sunni Muslim militant groups is well known.

Footage of HTS fighters demonstrating professional skills in drone warfare and other enhanced military capabilities able to adapt and innovate in response to Russian and Syrian bombardment suggests that the fighters have received significant help from Turkey. Even if the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan does not openly support HTS, its recent successes would have been unthinkable without Turkey’s military and logistical backing, and provision of advanced weaponry.

Turkey’s goal in supporting the Syrian opposition is not just to weaken Assad but to target the Kurdish military stationed in an autonomous Kurdish enclave in northern Syria across the Turkish border. Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) regard the Kurdish People’s Defense Units (YPG) and the Democratic Union Party of Syria (PYD) as offshoots of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) “and destructive tools against Turkey in this region.” However the YPG and affiliated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have enjoyed the staunch support of the West because they have battled remnants of the Islamic State (ISIS) terrorist group in the northern provinces of Syria.

Turkey, which fears the desire of its own large Kurdish minority for greater independence, has maintained a certain footprint in this area for years, with frequent military operations against the Kurdish militia. Interestingly, in 2023, President Erdogan signaled readiness for rapprochement with the Assad government in return for potential joint action against the YPG. Now, however, with Assad on the ropes and Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia weakened and distracted by other conflicts, Turkey appears to have given up on diplomatic normalization with Damascus and likely greenlighted the HTS offensive.

Turkey hopes to marginalize Kurdish groups in Syria such as the PYD/YPG, pushing them away from border areas. Secondly, Turkey may have seen an opportunity to reduce the Iranian and Hezbollah presence in Syria and to demonstrate to the incoming Trump administration Turkey’s ability to counteract Iranian influence in the Middle East.

Turkey has also adroitly played its cards with Russia since the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Although Russia condemned the HTS offensive, its response was limited to a few air raids against the rebels that have not prevented them from moving into the strategic vital province of Hama.

Ironically, even though Turkey has been a vocal critic of Israel’s war on Gaza, the HTS offensive is seen as serving Israeli as well as Turkish interests. Israeli media reported that the Israeli Air Force intercepted a suspected Iranian airplane from ferrying arms to Hezbollah through Syrian airspace on December 1, ordering the plane to turn around because of the fierce clashes between HTS and Assad forces. Such events suggest that Ankara and Tel Aviv may have coordinated their efforts against Assad and Iran-backed militants. This is not surprising in light of the news that on November 19, Ronen Bar, the head of Israel’s domestic intelligence agency Shin Bet, had a secret meeting with Turkish intelligence chief İbrahim Kalın in Ankara regarding Israeli hostages, Hamas, and other Iranian-backed militants.

It is likely that Turkey expects that the incoming President Trump will pick up where he left off on Middle East policy by withdrawing the 900 or so remaining U.S. troops in Syria and possibly the 2,500 in Iraq, leaving behind a deep power and security vacuum. This would solidify Turkey and Israel as key regional players with the strong military capability to tackle their assorted opponents, including Iran-backed groups. Turkey, in particular, would have more space for military and diplomatic maneuvering against the Kurds, ironically long close to Israel, significantly increasing Ankara’s leverage in light of a weakened Iran.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday said that the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria was a “direct result” of Israel’s military campaign against Iran and its proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah.

“This is a historic day in the history of the Middle East,” he said.

But in a sign of the potential danger Israel feels from unknown rulers in Damascus, Netanyahu said that he had ordered the military to seize the buffer zone that separates the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights from the rest of Syria.

“Together with the Defense Minister, and with full backing from the Cabinet, I directed the IDF yesterday to take control of the buffer zone and the dominant positions near it,” he said while visiting the Golan Heights. “We will not allow any hostile force to establish itself on our border.”

It is the first time Israeli troops would be stationed in the buffer zone since a 1974 agreement establishing the line of control between Israel and Syria, though they have in the past entered the no-man’s land for brief periods. Since 1974, the buffer zone has been patrolled by United Nations peacekeepers. Israel captured the Golan Heights from Syria in 1967 and annexed it in 1981.

Israeli leaders are watching events across the border in Syria with a mix of trepidation and glee, as 50 years of detente were upended in a matter of hours.

“We don’t know much,” said Boaz Shapira, a researcher with the Alma Foundation, a think tank dedicated to issues in northern Israel. “The situation that we were used to in Syria in the past – 50 years with the Assad regime – has changed completely.”

Bashar al-Assad was hardly an ally, but there was an understanding that allowed the countries to coexist. Though Israel occasionally offered treatment to casualties of Syria’s civil war, it maintained official neutrality in the conflict. The Israeli military has also for years targeted supply lines of Iran and its proxy Hezbollah in Syria – most notably killing Iranian military commanders in the Iranian consulate in Damascus, in April – but avoided targeting the Assad regime itself.

The rebels’ rapid capture of Damascus means that Israeli leaders will have to evaluate the implications for their own security.

Iran has now lost one of its most important bulwarks in the region. That will be cause for celebration in Israel, which has been fighting Iranian-backed forces in Gaza (Hamas) and Lebanon (Hezbollah) since October last year.

Netanyahu, who declared that the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was a step towards changing “the balance of power in the region for years to come,” will see this as advancing that goal.

Mordechai Kedar, who specialized in Syria affairs during a 25-year career in Israeli military intelligence, said that the events in Syria were a domino effect from Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel. “It’s not only Israel – it’s the whole Middle East will celebrate,” he told CNN.

The collapse of the Assad regime is a “severe blow” for Iran, said Amos Yadlin, a former major general in the Israel Defense Forces, who also served as chief of the Military Intelligence Directorate.

“The rebels tearing down posters of (Iranian commander Qasem) Soleimani and Nasrallah from the Iranian embassy in Damascus illustrate the severity of the blow to the axis,” he said. “Rebuilding Hezbollah seems even more difficult with the loss of Syria, which was a logistical rearguard for weapons from Assad, Iran, and Russia.”

On the other hand, no one quite knows – including in Israel – who the rebels are who now control Syria, and how they will implement their power.

The offensive was led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which was formerly an al Qaeda affiliate. The US Government still has a $10 million bounty on the head of its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, whose real name is Ahmed al-Sharaa.

Kedar said that despite their radical roots, the opening indications were positive. “So far, they are rather rational,” he said. “For example, they are leaving the government to run the country.”

Jolani has called on rebel forces to leave state institutions unharmed. “To all military forces in the city of Damascus, it is strictly forbidden to approach public institutions, which will remain under the supervision of the former Prime Minister until they are officially handed over, and it is also forbidden to fire bullets into the air,” he wrote on Telegram.

“Here, they are learning from the mistakes of the American in Iraq. They don’t want to destroy the country. They want the system to work – of course under different rules and different leadership. This is a very rational way to run the country.”

Yadlin said that Jolani had “demonstrated great political sophistication and conquered Syria almost without a fight.”

“In the short term, the rebels are not a threat to Israel,” he said. “When he is required to establish his rule in Syria, he will not get involved with the most powerful military force in the region. Israel needs to shape the rules of the game against Syria in the same aggressive manner in which it does so in Lebanon.”

That view is not universal. Israel’s Minister of Diaspora and Combating Antisemitism Amichai Chiklisaid said in a statement that “the bottom line is that most of Syria is now under the control of affiliates of al-Qaeda and Daesh.” He called for the Israeli military to establish full control within the buffer zone that has since 1974 existed between Israeli- and Syrian-controlled territory.

Indeed, Israel’s top priority will be securing its border with Syria. The IDF said the deployment of troops within the Golan buffer zone was made “to ensure the safety of the communities of the Golan Heights and the citizens of Israel.”

Shapira said he doubted Israel would want to provoke the new leaders in Damascus by pushing into Syrian-controlled Golan. “Taking more territory means we have to deal with other players who might not be so happy about it,” he added.

“There are dozens of different militias,” Shapira said. “It’s going to be very challenging for Israel.”

The Israeli military, in its statement about operations in the Golan, said: “The State of Israel does not interfere in in the domestic conflict within Syria.”

Israel’s top security and political leaders have been mostly mum on events in Syria – no doubt, as they evaluate how to react.

Opposition leader Yair Lapid said that Assad’s ouster emphasized the need “to create a strong regional coalition with Saudi Arabia and the Abraham Accords countries (Bahrain, UAE, Morocco, Sudan) in order to jointly address regional instability. The Iranian axis has weakened significantly, and Israel needs to strive for a comprehensive political achievement that will also assist it in Gaza and the West Bank.”