Solar Cycle 24, possible little Iceage

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Story from the National Post on the lack of sun spots during our current solar cycle 24, and the possibility of a little ice age in our future.
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blog ... s-sun.aspx

Of course, that is a possibility.

But we know less about the sun than we do about carbon dioxide trapping heat in the atmosphere. It's harder to influence the sun ("Hail, Ra!") than the Earth's atmosphere. If (and that is a big if) we go into a solar cooling phase, then adding carbon dioxide will be considered good. But at this point in time, based on all we know, greenhouse gases are contributing to a warming that will be expensive.

The really big ice ages seem to be due to variations in the Earth's orbit (as described by Milankovitch). But even this is not like clockwork - probably some interaction with the sun's output, with atmospheric gases, meteor impacts, etc.

Also, this article from NASA suggests that sunspot activity drops every 11 years or so, and then the polarity reverses (marking a new cycle number) and the activity picks up agains. This article mentions the first sunspots and auroras from cycle 24, with no suggestion that we really are in a 'drought' of sunspots.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008 ... ycle24.htm

From what they are saying cycle 23 is still waning for about a year into cycle 24, so there still maybe the odd sun spot activity and flare, we did have a few nights with a brilliant auroras over Calgary a couple of months back, I am not actually convinced that we are gong into an ice age, there really needs to be more data then a lack of sun spots for a few months into this cycle.

Not enough info, I agree, but it is an interesting topic to think about and discuss.

Such as the "little ice age" of the ?1700s?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

Pops

No doubt, those things happen. But predicting them is another thing altogether. We can tell when we are in a drought, but predicting when the next one will come, how long it will last, etc is tricky.

Also, some of the little ice age has been linked to heavy volcanic activity, which put a lot of ash high in the atmosphere, where it reflected more heat. The eruption of Laki in Iceland is linked in time to George Washington's recording a 'year without a summer' in his diary.

This is something I follow closely and it's quite a topic these days in ham radio circles. Cycle 23 is currently at about 12 years (ave=11 years) so it's a little early to be thinking we're heading into an extended period of low or no sunspots. If we're sitting here next year at this time with no indication of the start of cycle 24 then maybe that'll be time to wonder what's going on.

Last edited by Lepidoptera on 02 Jun 2008, 6:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Lots of little back and forth in recorded time, which is short and badly recorded, but in Geologic time, the last two major waves of ice, it was as warm or warmer than today, then one winter it started snowing, and continued for a thousand years.

Warm ocean, cool land, and the heat engine starts up. The last one dropped sea level 440 foot.

Continental shelves get exposed, islands grow, so lots of new low land, while the ice seems to stay in the highland.

Some think ice ages are the best time on this planet.

In terms of evolution, they might be right. Lots more tropical land, where the diversity of species is much much higher.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IT2AQC3X5bk[/youtube]
Found an interesting video of visible magnetic scientists at NASA have made,