Psychopompos wrote:
I believe that a war between two or more nuclearpower states (especially involving China against NATO) will happen in the next decades, but I don't think it would be a nuclear war : it would cause the almost full-destruction of the belligerents.
NATO and China don't really have anything to do with each other.

The only thing that would call for NATO involvement would be a direct strike by China against NATO member countries (as opposed to, say, invading Taiwan.)
In my estimation:
The US isn't stupid enough to start a nuclear war*.
Russia isn't stupid enough to start a nuclear war.
Britain isn't stupid enough to start a nuclear war, and (uniquely, bizarrely) possibly wouldn't use nukes even in retaliation.
France isn't stupid enough to start a nuclear war.
China isn't stupid enough to start a nuclear war.
India isn't stupid enough to start a nuclear war.
Pakistan isn't
quite stupid enough to start a nuclear war, yet.
The DPRK isn't
quite stupid enough to start a nuclear war, yet.
Israel isn't
quite stupid enough to start a nuclear war, yet.
Germany, Belgium, Turkey, Italy, Holland are unable to use their (US provided) weapons without US approval, and aren't stupid enough to start a nuclear war anyway.
Once Iran gets the bomb, they'll be not
quite stupid enough, yet.
Any terrorist group that obtains a nuclear weapon is probably stupid enough to use it.
I don't think I've left anyone out.
I'd put terrorist use of a single small nuke on New York as the most likely candidate for the next nuclear weapon to be used in anger. Followed by terrorist use of a single small nuke against Washington or London. Followed distantly by India-Pakistan or unilateral use by Israel against its neighbours, or the DPRK against a US CBG.
petitesouris wrote:
i am almost positive that i read that fact in my geography textbook. also, the al queda is reported to operate in countries even where the majority is not muslim.
Seriously, Shi'as and Sunnis don't get along, and Iran is overwhelmingly Shi'a. There are some Sunnis in Iran, but they aren't a major force AFAIK.
Certainly AQ (it's probably not right to speak of them as a single overarching group; better to say Wahhabi fundy groups) operate all over, but it's more likely that Pakistani dissidents would steal them a bomb or the DPRK would sell them one than that the Iranians would give them one.
Pfft. All cheerful stuff.
*they'd probably like to, as would many of the nuclear powers, but the world public cannot distinguish between nuclear weapons, so the use of a (relatively) harmless nuclear bunker buster would be treated worldwide as an atrocity beyond measure.
_________________
No one has gone missing or died.
The year is still young.