Callista wrote:
Something to remember about screening tests:
Out of 1,000 people, ten will be autistic and 990 will be non-autistic.
Have the 1,000 people take the AQ test.
80% of the autistics (8 people) will score between 32 and 50.
2% of the non-autistics (19.8; round up to 20) will score between 32 and 50.
Therefore, if a random person takes the test and gets a score between 32 and 50, there is a 28% chance that they actually are autistic.
OK, but this has something to say about either the AQ-test or the broader autism phenotype.
Either:
1. The AQ-test does an awful job at discriminating ASCs
2. ASCs are badly defined, and therefore the AQ-test cannot do better
3. There are 4 times as many people with autistic traits than gets a diagnosis.
Add to this that I believe the 2% figure "in the general population" really is an underestimate because the control-group used probably isn't representative of the general population. My guess is that they selected psychology-students, or some social area students, which will bias results towards more NTs.
If the true figure in a really random population study is larger, it means the AQ test is even worse, or that autistic traits are even more common than 4%.
Aspie-quiz has 16% of "very likely Aspie" in a random Internet-community, which is 8 times higher. Add to that that it seems to discriminate better than the AQ-test, and a similar amount of diagnosed ASCs (80% in earlier versions) got their diagnosis confirmed.
My guess is that autistic traits has a prevalence of about 5-10% in the general population, and that 5-10 times more people have autistic traits than are diagnosed with ASCs.