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How many aspies do you think there are in the world?

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Janissy
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28 May 2010, 12:06 pm

Ambivalence wrote:
Slowly. :)

World population is closer to 7 billion than 6 billion. Wiki gives us 6.8 billion people.

The usual estimate given is 1% on the autistic spectrum. Let's use that for now and not fuss about the soon-to-be-irrelevant Asperger's label:

6.8 billion = 6,800,000,000 people.

1% of 6.8 billion = 6,800,000,000 people / 100 = 68,000,000 = 68 million people worldwide.


That 1% estimate (which is <1% in some calculations) was made from populations in U.S., U.K. and Australia. If this is genetic, you can't just assume that because it is 1% (or less) of the U.S/U.K./Australia., it must also therefore be 1% of all Asian countries, African countries and Latin American countries. Those countries have populations which have different racial/ethnic demographics than the countries the statistics come from and that matters.



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28 May 2010, 3:09 pm

TPE2 wrote:
Sparrowrose wrote:
The latest studies I've looked at are showing between 1 in 100 and 1 in 110 are autistic. Of those, 2/3 are "high functioning" -- either HFA or HF PDD-NOS or AS. Of those, 2/3 have asperger's.

With roughly 6 billion people on the planet, that would make about 400,000,000 people some form of high-functioning autistic and about 266,667,000 with asperger's.


that would make about 40,000,000 people some form of high-functioning autistic and about 26,667,000 (or 26,666,667?) with asperger's, I think


Probably. I'm always making arithmetic mistakes. I used to get so upset because I'd take a calculus 3 exam and have all the equations right but make an arithmetic mistake in each one.


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Sparrowrose
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28 May 2010, 3:18 pm

Vanilla_Slice wrote:
Assume 1% of the population, that would be over 600 million aspies.


1% of the population makes over 600 million on the entire spectrum

Then remove the 1/3 who are "lower functioning"

Then remove the 1/3 of the "higher functioning" who have HFA

And what you're left with is the number of "aspies."

Asperger's represents approximately 4/9 of the entire autism spectrum, according to the studies I was reading when I was preparing a research paper last fall. (I could go back and find the studies but not this minute because I'm still waking up and not doing a very good job of it today. I function better at night.)


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Ambivalence
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28 May 2010, 4:09 pm

Janissy wrote:
That 1% estimate (which is <1% in some calculations) was made from populations in U.S., U.K. and Australia. If this is genetic, you can't just assume that because it is 1% (or less) of the U.S/U.K./Australia., it must also therefore be 1% of all Asian countries, African countries and Latin American countries.

Indeed not. But there's no evidence that that is the case (and would whatever changes there are need to have dated from all that long ago to be spread evenly across the globe anyway?) so it'll do for an estimate. Subject to change. :P

various wrote:
600 million is 1%

Where are you living, Trantor? :wink:


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29 May 2010, 12:02 am

ErinWho wrote:
enough to start our own country


i love this idea


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Asp-Z
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29 May 2010, 6:20 am

More than we think.



ruveyn
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29 May 2010, 10:33 am

About one percent of the human race. That wold come out to a little over 60 million. This is only a guess.

ruveyn



Pandoran-March
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28 Jul 2010, 5:41 pm

ruveyn wrote:
About one percent of the human race. That wold come out to a little over 60 million. This is only a guess.

ruveyn

It's enough to take over France.


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Hodor
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28 Jul 2010, 6:08 pm

I am not sure, but there are certainly a lot of self-diagnosed aspies on the internet.

Pandoran-March wrote:
ruveyn wrote:
About one percent of the human race. That wold come out to a little over 60 million. This is only a guess.

ruveyn

It's enough to take over France.


I doubt the French would put up much of a fight. White flags at the ready, messieurs et mesdames!


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Pandoran-March
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28 Jul 2010, 6:14 pm

Hodor wrote:
I am not sure, but there are certainly a lot of self-diagnosed aspies on the internet.

Pandoran-March wrote:
ruveyn wrote:
About one percent of the human race. That wold come out to a little over 60 million. This is only a guess.

ruveyn

It's enough to take over France.


I doubt the French would put up much of a fight. White flags at the ready, messieurs et mesdames!

Precisely why I suggested the French. :wink:


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29 Jul 2010, 2:29 am

Janissy wrote:
If this is genetic, you can't just assume that because it is 1% (or less) of the U.S/U.K./Australia., it must also therefore be 1% of all Asian countries, African countries and Latin American countries. Those countries have populations which have different racial/ethnic demographics than the countries the statistics come from and that matters.


I think a comprehensive and consistent prevalence survey of ASD across national boundaries and ethnic groups should be one of the big research priorities, and not particularly expensive. Most current prevalence data is heavily biased towards groups where diagnosis is a function of wealth, and accessing resources is a direct consequence of diagnosis.

Likewise, the effect of diagnostic criteria on supposed rise in autism prevalence needs assessing, along with the population of undiagnosed adults who would have been diagnosed in childhood by current standards.



Sparrowrose
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29 Jul 2010, 3:14 am

StuartN wrote:
Janissy wrote:
Likewise, the effect of diagnostic criteria on supposed rise in autism prevalence needs assessing, along with the population of undiagnosed adults who would have been diagnosed in childhood by current standards.


The British have been working on that and their preliminary results seem to indicate that the prevalence of autism has not increased at all in the last 70 years or so.


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zer0netgain
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29 Jul 2010, 3:27 am

Image

8) :lol:



TPE2
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29 Jul 2010, 3:57 am

StuartN wrote:
. Most current prevalence data is heavily biased towards groups where diagnosis is a function of wealth, and accessing resources is a direct consequence of diagnosis.


In the case of Asperger's, currrent prevalence data is largely a result of studies made in two swedish towns and one finish town where they tested ALL schoolchildren in town and counted how many meet the diagnosis criterias.

These studies don't have the bias that you refer, but could have the genetic bias that some other posters refered.



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29 Jul 2010, 8:49 am

Sparrowrose wrote:
The British have been working on that and their preliminary results seem to indicate that the prevalence of autism has not increased at all in the last 70 years or so.


Can you provide a reference - "the British" is a little broad! I know there was a good NHS postcode prevalence study in around 2007.

TPE2 wrote:
In the case of Asperger's, currrent prevalence data is largely a result of studies made in two swedish towns and one finish town where they tested ALL schoolchildren in town and counted how many meet the diagnosis criterias.

These studies don't have the bias that you refer, but could have the genetic bias that some other posters refered.


There are hundreds of studies stating prevalence figures (even in the little province that I live in), and including ethnic breakdowns across several US counties or states. They are all in countries with developed education, health and social welfare service where diagnosis directly results in some benefit. There are very few comprehensive population surveys, very few surveys screening ASD criteria in adult populations and few studies assessing the role of changing diagnostic practices.

There are effectively no prevalence studies for most of the world's population outside the US and Western Europe. Figures for diagnosis rates (which are available for some non-Western countries) mean very little in a country where diagnosis is not sought (or offered) because it serves no purpose.



Sparrowrose
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29 Jul 2010, 9:22 am

StuartN wrote:
Sparrowrose wrote:
The British have been working on that and their preliminary results seem to indicate that the prevalence of autism has not increased at all in the last 70 years or so.


Can you provide a reference - "the British" is a little broad! I know there was a good NHS postcode prevalence study in around 2007.


I posted about it a bunch of times elsewhere on this site. I would have to either go find my old posts or go re-do all my research because my computer crashed earlier this summer and I lost all my organized autism research files (about ten years' worth) and haven't really had the heart to go around gathering it all up again. I seem to have lost the "me-search" special interest I'd had ever since being diagnosed.

As I remember, it was a series of British studies where they looked at spectrum adults and one in particular involved a random house-to-house survey and seeing who had not been diagnosed but would be under the new understanding of the spectrum. When they were done they found the same percentage of the population on the spectrum at all ages.

If you want me to go look it all up again for you you'll have to wait a while because I'm just now about to go off to bed. Or you could look it up if you didn't want to wait on me.


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