Circumcision doubles autism risk, study claims

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The_Walrus
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11 Jan 2015, 3:21 pm

Fnord wrote:
Since this "study" was released to the popular press, and not to a reputable refer-review science journal,

Let me just stop you there

Dillogic wrote:
Well, it's not really a dumb study.

If you do enough trials on the population of 300,000+ people (and the study is all done appropriately with matched controls), and you keep on ending up with double the risk, then something is amiss.

A severe mental [and corresponding physical] reaction to bodily trauma does seem like a possible reason for developing a condition that is shown to have multiple causes (eMedicine).

It's a pretty dumb interpretation, you just like it because it confirms your existing biases.

The problem with the study, which does do controls, is that the authors didn't get the results they wanted (positive ones). Their sample size was too small. 300,000 people sounds like a lot, but circumcision is rare and autism is rare, so they only found 124 circumcised autistic boys. All their 95% confidence intervals are quite wide, and most overlap 1, meaning they cannot be confident that there isn't actually a decrease.

I think the most interesting thing here is that their "best results" came on children under 4. To me, this implies that the circumcised children were diagnosed earlier, perhaps because their family were more willing to see a doctor.



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11 Jan 2015, 5:19 pm

Dillogic wrote:
Perhaps seeing your dong mutilated as a child scares people into autism.


OMG that is funny! :lol:

I'm still laughing at that one.


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B19
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11 Jan 2015, 6:11 pm

Seems a bizarre claim. How does the article explain then why the rates of autism are dramatically rising as the rates of circumcision are sharply declining?



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11 Jan 2015, 6:31 pm

B19 wrote:
Seems a bizarre claim. How does the article explain then why the rates of autism are dramatically rising as the rates of circumcision are sharply declining?
How does the article explain why the diagnosis rate for Autism among girls and women is also rising?

No, the authors must have an agenda, especially after witnessing the success that anti-vaxers had when vaccinations were falsely linked with Autism.


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11 Jan 2015, 7:25 pm

Maybe there's some cultural factors that make certain parents both more likely to get boys circumcised and more likely to seek a diagnosis.



Nambo
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11 Jan 2015, 7:52 pm

Makes sense to me, everyone knows that's where men's brains are located, you cannot go around cutting off bits of a mans brain without some consequences.



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11 Jan 2015, 7:53 pm

Now that you put it like that, I can see the relationship lol



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12 Jan 2015, 12:08 am

The_Walrus wrote:
It's a pretty dumb interpretation, you just like it because it confirms your existing biases.

The problem with the study, which does do controls, is that the authors didn't get the results they wanted (positive ones). Their sample size was too small. 300,000 people sounds like a lot, but circumcision is rare and autism is rare, so they only found 124 circumcised autistic boys. All their 95% confidence intervals are quite wide, and most overlap 1, meaning they cannot be confident that there isn't actually a decrease.

I think the most interesting thing here is that their "best results" came on children under 4. To me, this implies that the circumcised children were diagnosed earlier, perhaps because their family were more willing to see a doctor.


What bias? You mean disliking having bits of your dong cut off as a child? Call me biased then, though not for this study, as I haven't read it, and I'm speculating that it could be a cause*. You assume too much, which is pretty dumb.

Nonetheless, I think it's a stretch, albeit childhood trauma could be implicated in developing, or increasing, an ASD. I have to read the study.

*It's common for external stressors to increase autistic symptoms, and say if a child with a subclinical ASD is exposed to one, they may then worsen, which will negatively affect their social development at an early age, increasing to a handicap



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12 Jan 2015, 12:43 am

When I first saw the story I thought it was a satire or something... a joke from the Onion.


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12 Jan 2015, 3:41 am

Lol. That's all I have to say for it. Statistics, statistics.


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12 Jan 2015, 6:39 am

They are theorizing the early pain messed up senses. And there backup is that Israel diagnosis is earlier. As a circumcised Autistic I obviously have a personal interest to see what if any follow up studies find. Speaking of the press it is very noticeable they are eager to publish studies which seem to prove the idea that stated by Bruno Bettelheim that somebody did something wrong against perfectly normal cute kids that caused them to be autistic be it "refrigerator mother", procreate too late, vaccine and now circumcision. I am trying to remember the last study "proving " genetic involvement that I read about in the mainstream media. .


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12 Jan 2015, 7:14 am

But what causes AS in women?


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12 Jan 2015, 10:17 am

Fnord wrote:
But what causes AS in women?

Do you or do you not have a background in science?

The claim - which I already debunked above, if you are in any doubt about whether I am supporting it or not - is not "all autism is caused by circumcision", it is "circumcised men are more likely to have autism than uncircumcised men". This is perfectly consistent with uncircumcised men with autism existing, and women with autism existing. In the same way, white people are more likely to get skin cancer than black people, but nobody goes around declaring that UV radiation cannot cause skin cancer.

For those interested, they controlled for "cultural background" (whether they had an ancestor from a majority-Islamic country), but not income or trust of doctors or anything like that.
Dillogic wrote:
The_Walrus wrote:
It's a pretty dumb interpretation, you just like it because it confirms your existing biases.

The problem with the study, which does do controls, is that the authors didn't get the results they wanted (positive ones). Their sample size was too small. 300,000 people sounds like a lot, but circumcision is rare and autism is rare, so they only found 124 circumcised autistic boys. All their 95% confidence intervals are quite wide, and most overlap 1, meaning they cannot be confident that there isn't actually a decrease.

I think the most interesting thing here is that their "best results" came on children under 4. To me, this implies that the circumcised children were diagnosed earlier, perhaps because their family were more willing to see a doctor.


What bias? You mean disliking having bits of your dong cut off as a child? Call me biased then, though not for this study, as I haven't read it, and I'm speculating that it could be a cause*. You assume too much, which is pretty dumb.
I was giving you the benefit of the doubt and presuming that you formed your opinion based on bad evidence rather than no evidence at all. Apologies, I won't assume so much of you again.



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12 Jan 2015, 11:03 am

Even if this is true, couldn't it just be possible that there is a genetic link among ethnic Jews? Some disorders are more prevalent in specific ethnic communities. I'm not saying there IS a disproportionate number of autistic Jews (though I am one) but it's more plausible to me than any notion that circumcision, or any post-birth environmental factor, "causes" autism rather than it being something you are born with.



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12 Jan 2015, 5:09 pm

The_Walrus wrote:
Fnord wrote:
But what causes AS in women?
Do you or do you not have a background in science? The claim - which I already debunked above, if you are in any doubt about whether I am supporting it or not - is not "all autism is caused by circumcision", it is "circumcised men are more likely to have autism than uncircumcised men". This is perfectly consistent with uncircumcised men with autism existing, and women with autism existing ...
Sorry. I must've skipped over that part. You're right, of course.


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13 Jan 2015, 8:43 am

diablo77 wrote:
Even if this is true, couldn't it just be possible that there is a genetic link among ethnic Jews? Some disorders are more prevalent in specific ethnic communities. I'm not saying there IS a disproportionate number of autistic Jews (though I am one) but it's more plausible to me than any notion that circumcision, or any post-birth environmental factor, "causes" autism rather than it being something you are born with.


This sounds like a very plausible explanation. Here is a wiki on international circumscision rates:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prevalence_of_circumcision

Quote:
In 1986, 511 out of approximately 478,000 Danish boys aged 0–14 years were circumcised. This corresponds to a cumulative national circumcision rate of around 1.6% by the age of 15 years.[58]


Quote:
Statistics from different sources give widely varying estimates of infant circumcision rates in the United States.

In 2011, circumcision was one of the most common procedures performed during hospital stays in the U.S. There were approximately 1.1 million hospitalizations with a circumcision, a rate of 36 stays per 10,000 population. This was a decrease of 16% from 1997, when there was a rate of 43 stays per 10,000 population. It was the second-most common procedure performed on patients under one year of age.[27]

In 2005, about 56 percent of male newborns were circumcised prior to release from the hospital according to statistics from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.[28]

Data from a national survey conducted from 1999 to 2002 found that the overall prevalence of male circumcision in the United States was 79%.[29] 91% of boys born in the 1970s, and 83% of boys born in the 1980s were circumcised.[29] An earlier survey, conducted in 1992, found a circumcision prevalence of 77% in US-born men, born from 1932–1974, including 81% of non-Hispanic White men, 65% of Black men, and 54% of Hispanic men, vs. 42% of non U.S. born men who were circumcised.[30]


The circumscision rate in the U.S. is consistently pretty high, although it wanders around, possibly due to the ever-changing demographics of the U.S. But in any case, circumcision in the U.S. is uncoupled from religion. Boys from all sorts of ethnic backgrounds get circumcised.

In Denmark, circumscision is rare. I only have that one data point (since I didn't google in great depth) but I have no reason to believe it represents some sort of giant drop from an otherwise much higher rate. This means that in Denmark, unlike the U.S., circumscision will be tied tightly to religion and ethnicity. So the study could actually be showing what you say- that certain ethnic groups have a higher autism rate and are also more likely to circumcise. Some might think they have a higher autism rate because they circumcise but there isn't any evidence of that (this study isn't evidence of that).