Do we really miss cues, or something else

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Around what age do you think that happens for most people?

I would say around 25 years of age, or after graduating college.

My earlier comment was based on grad school, so they would have been in that age range. Guess there were other things that turned them off from me. I guess we can't be attractive to everyone. Maybe not even attractive to most, but if you find the one who is attracted to you, it is wonderful.

Well, whether you're NT or AS, unless you're in the top 10% of attractiveness, most of the women you meet will not be interested in you. Unless they're actively looking for a partner, most people only notice the top 10% (and their own partner, if they have one).

However, if you phrase it as the proportion of women who would've been interested if you were NT but not when you're AS vs the number of women who are interested and you miss it, that's a tougher question. From my Dad's account, the latter was higher for him. But he could only tell because he's gotten a lot more socially astute since his youth, and he's got a very good memory so he remembers all those missed opportunities. (Not that he regrets them - he's happily married to my Mom.) Plus, his AS isn't that obvious until you get to know him. I've met some AS people who, even if I don't know them well at all, I can immediately peg them as developmentally disabled from their mannerisms and the sound of their voice. I could see people being turned off of being attracted to someone if they're obviously disabled like that.

I was taking a walk yesterday, and two gorgeous women were walking towards me.
They were both smiling, and looking at me.

One was reaching her arms all the way out directly at me, and she did that twice right as I looked at her.
The other gave me eye contact and smiled at me and she looked down as I was trying to figure out their non verbal language by anxiously attempting eye contact.

I was not certain of what any of it meant, and I'm still not sure.
I wish I could have said hello, maybe even try to compliment them, but I was too afraid I would mess something up.
This scenario has happened to me dozens of times, at random.

When I go outside with my parents, sometimes they tell me that there are women "checking me out".
I never believe them, even though I have witnessed the women they mentioned looking at me with smiles.
I remember one woman at the grocery was actually twirling her hair and smiling at me and standing very near me.

I don't know how I'm supposed to reciprocate. I'm scared of messing up, and I'm never sure if they're interested.
I have Hostile Attribution Bias pretty badly. Sometimes a smile seems like a threat, but I'm never certain.