slave wrote:
What is your take on the likelihood of financial system collapse?
That’s an interesting question.
So...First of all, I am by
no means an expert in this area. Second, my record of “calling” economic events (e.g. recessions) has been
very poor (as I tend to not be overly skeptical of the system, particularly with all corruption and greed permeating everything).
In any event, I had expected the financial system to simply collapse post Lehman. I was not certain exactly how this would manifest itself (e.g. a return to soup lines?). But, I did think things would get much, much worse. It did not. And I was quite surprised.
Honestly, I didn't do anything to prepare for things getting worse. As, I do not believe there is a lot anyone can do (other than, supposedly, buy gold and guns). So, I just waited. Happily, it didn’t happen (as it would be a very ugly thing).
In any event, it does seem to me that the system is susceptible to collapse. We are, with increasingly regularity, seeing bubbles form just about everywhere. I am particularly nervous about where interest rates are. Because, one would guess, that there is only one direction for them to go (which is up). Since everything is tied to interest rates, we could see some "interesting" things occur when they do rise. This may not happen next week, next month, next year. But, it will inevitably happen.
What’s also really interesting - Is that the “typical person” cannot fathom a collapse of this nature. I think the “typical person” lives in a bubble, fully unaware when these manias are occurring. We saw this several times recently (e.g., Dot-Com, Real Estate, etc.). We have also seen these in the past (e.g. Tulips, etc.).
It seems as if these manias are no different than the typical "trends" we see in the everyday neurotypical world. One day ‘X’ is in style, the next day ‘Y’. I never understand how this works – LOL.
I recently read, "The Return of the Great Depression". I thought it was interesting. I am looking for other interesting books to read on this topic (if you have any suggestions).