It is impossible to verify having "Aspie Radar" unless (1) the suspected aspie had received a valid diagnosis of Asperger's Syndrome, AND (2) he or she admitted it. I'm of the opinion that while may people believe that they have such an ability, they do not realize that confirmation bias may play a major role in the intensity of their belief.
You can't just go around saying to yourself, "Yes, that person is an aspie" and expect to be right even half of the time. A 2003 review of epidemiological studies of children found autism prevalence rates ranging from 0.03 to 4.84 per 1,000, with the ratio of autism to Asperger syndrome ranging from 1.5:1 to 16:1; combining the geometric mean ratio of 5:1 with a conservative prevalence estimate for autism of 1.3 per 1,000 suggests indirectly that the prevalence of AS might be around 0.26 per 1,000 - that's 0.026 per 100, or 0.026%, which is a couple of orders of magnitude below 50%, or 50/50.
Sources:- Fombonne E, Tidmarsh L (2003). "Epidemiologic data on Asperger disorder". Child Adolesc Psychiatr Clin N Am 12 (1): 15–21. doi:10.1016/S1056-4993(02)00050-0. PMID 12512396.
- Fombonne E (2007). "Epidemiological surveys of pervasive developmental disorders". In Volkmar FR. Autism and Pervasive Developmental Disorders (2nd ed.). Cambridge University Press. pp. 33–68. ISBN 0-521-54957-4.