Got a chance to fix things, would you take it?

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Hi,

Without going into lots of detail, I am autistic and have multiple physical disabilities that prevent me from being able to work most jobs (or do much of anything I enjoy really)...

I hate my life, no friends, no money, physical problems prevent being able to do lots of free stuff people might enjoy (going for walks in the woods, etc..).. Basically, I live in my office, and only leave my house to buy food/supplies and goto Dr. appts.) ...

Obviously nothing can be done about pain issues (without money anyway), or the autism stuff, however there is 1 area I could, in theory improve that could make a big difference, but it's risky.

IF I had a good income, it would allow me to live somewhat of a life. Could afford to do certain things I can't, can get treatments I can't currently afford, etc, etc... Unfortunately, my SSDI disability income sucks and really limits what I can do (not much money after bills).

I found a way that MIGHT work. About 10 or 11 months ago I discovered daytrading the stockmarket (buying/selling stocks within a day, usually within a few minutes or seconds).

Since discovering it, I did the natural thing and hyperfocused on it... It became, sort of my obsession to learn how to do this (I'm sure others have your own special interests as most autistic people do, this has become mine... I love it). Basically stopped watching TV/video games and focused more or less totally on this.

Ive taken basically all of the best (according to the Wall Street Journal anyway) educational courses available. Had them donated by different people... Even have a mentor (very good experienced trader) helping me for free... I guess once he heard my story he thought learning this could help so he's trying to help me get started.

So, I've been practicing in a simulator, using real, live market data only using fake money. I've gotten pretty damn good at it.

I THINK I could do this and make a good amount of money... It's all about patterns and I'm very good at finding patterns and stuff. It's actually quite fun for me, enjoy it more than most video games. lol

Here's the problem. Statistically, 90%+ of people who try to daytrade, will lose all their money. Only about half the remaining people will make enough to live on comfortably.

Of course I've studied why most people fail and have taken measures to avoid most of it. I personally feel my chances are much higher, but I have no idea of the actual % chance I personally have based on my experience and practice.

In order to start doing this, the only way I can come up with money to start is to sell my truck. It's not my primary vehicle so I can get rid of it safely.

Problem is, my truck is my safety net. If I have a large expense, car breaks down, medical emergency, etc... I can take out a loan against the truck for instant money. My car isnt worth enough to use like this.

Herein lies the problem. If I get rid of the truck, and lose the money in the market, I'm screwed. Eventually something IS going to happen, and its going to be 100x worse because I won't have the ability to come up with money to deal with it.

Honestly, just because of my normal problems, I'm already borderline suicidal. I really do hate my life in it's current state. Only reason it hasn't happened is the effect it would have on my parents... However I worry if I didn't have the truck to borrow against in an emergency, if something happened, it could easily push me over the edge... Not having that safety net is f****n' scary.

So I'm stuck... I hate my life the way it is... Been on disability for 15+ years, no chance of getting off any other way really (trust me, I've tried loooooots of stuff) ... I feel like I'm swirling the drain as it is and I need to find a way to improve SOME aspect of my life.

Trading gives me a chance to fix things in a drastic way... If I'm as good at this as I THINK I am, it would be life changing in countless ways, and I'm not even talking about "getting rich" doing this, just earning a "decent" income would change my situation in many ways for the better. Honestly though I think I could make a very good income.

That being said, if it fails, it might just be the end, I honestly don't know how I would react at this point if I had some kind of emergency and didn't have the truck to finance my way out of it.

So, what would you do? Would you take a chance at having a good life if you knew it was a one shot thing? Or would you be scared, and just sit in your office the rest of your life rotting away till you die, knowing that at least you can handle an emergency (kinda) if it comes up. Keep in mind, sitting in your office is not really life. No friends, constant pain, no family (aside from parents, who I feel I'm a drain on), etc... Might live longer that way but how much "life" is there at this point?

I dunno... I don't know what to do. Curious if you guys would take the chance, knowing it's mostly likely kind of an all or nothing thing.

Look forward to hearing your thoughts.

Thanks

That's a false dichotomy. There are many other options than the two you mentioned.

It seems to me you lack a sense of purpose. Aside from concern for your parents' emotional well-being, I don't see much involvement with daily life. You don't have a primary relationship (significant other) or even a pet, as far as I can tell. Maybe you would find some relationships rewarding. It could even be something like reading aloud to second graders one time a week.

I'm not sure why you are carrying two vehicles. Both are licensed and insured? That is costly. Maybe it would make sense to sell the car and keep the truck. Although most trucks do get poorer mileage, it doesn't sound like you do a lot of travel so that might not matter.

I can't comment on day trading, other than to agree that I've heard it's a good way for the average person to lose his shirt. Even though you are good on the simulator, it still might screw you when done for real. If you do want to pursue it, build in a limit beyond which you will not go. (Like only taking so much cash to a poker game.) And then stick to that limit. Of course, as you build wealth, that limit can change, but it still should only be as much as you can afford to lose.

Gambling can be addictive and day trading sounds a lot like gambling to me. Just wanted to mention that.

Good luck, whatever you choose to do.

I'd love a cure. Suppose they came out with a cure. It would completely change an Aspie into an NT. However, you would die 10 years after taking the cure. I'd still take the cure in a heartbeat.

lol, long response, sorry... (I'm bored so may as well try to explain things a bit )

Not sure I'd call it a false dichotomy really... I've had years to try to find options that would work within the limitations of what I can do and there just aren't many. Ive talked to therapists, department of vocational rehab, etc etc..

All of the (not many) options to make money, are limited... SSDI limits how much money I can make on top of SSDI payments, and none of the things I might be able to do pay enough to warrant dropping disability.

I've looked into various businesses and tons of work-from-home type jobs, but even with the little bit of extra income SSDI allows, it just gets dissolved into medical bills, meds and such, the 800 or whatever the limit SSDI allows me to earn, though is welcome, doesn't really do much in terms of changing anything significant.

Only option really is find some kind of home based business I could physically do somehow, but everything I've been interested in, and able to do, has too much up-front startup costs involved, not to mention huge risk.

Yes trading has risk, a lot of it if you don't do it right, but so do small businesses. 50-80% fail generally.

When I take the raw statistics, 90% of people who try to trade lose money... and compare it to starting a small business, then adjust the percentage down based on education, and proper practice, and having a mentor/personal teacher help you...

I would guess I'm much closer to the 50% mark personally maybe higher. One of the courses I took, taught by the highest rated educator in the Wall Street Journal, claims his students have an 80% success rate after finishing the course.

Of course there's no way to get real numbers for how much getting good education and stuff helps, but when you look at the statistics as to why people fail, it's almost always stuff like lack of education, not using proper tools, using real money before practicing with fake money, etc etc...

Almost every reason people fail at this, I've tried to take many steps to mitigate (I'm disabled, but I have tons of free time ) ... Not sure how that effects that 90% chance of failure exactly, but it has to lower it substantially I'd imagine.

On a related side note, trading is the ONLY source of income that won't affect my disability income. SSDI treats day-trading the same the same as a 401k, it's unearned income thus I can make as much as I like without losing my SSDI payments.

So I could build my "trading business/account" while keeping my SSDI safety net, unlike any other business or job. If I started a business or new job and make over $800-1000 or so, instantly they yank my disability payments, which would instantly sink me in most cases.

Your right, I do lack a of sense of purpose... Don't talk to people on a regular basis, don't have pets because of the cost (mostly)...

At this point I try to avoid talking to people as much as possible. Combination of lots of things, I get jealous of their lives (even if its not great usually I'd happily trade places because its usually a step up even if they got problems of their own) ... 15 years of rotting on disability, a large chunk of it basically spent alone in my office, doesn't leave me with a ton to talk about.

I can talk about my life before it fell apart, but after that it just kinda stopped... If they talk about theirs, and its good I get jealous, if they complain I usually get annoyed because their bitching about problems that, usually, seem insignificant to the s**t I'm dealing with...

Like hearing a rich person complain they had to replace their mailbox because someone hit it with a bat or something... Like, really? That's the drama you get upset about? lol I couldn't stand today, and you're going on about a $50 mailbox when you make $400k a year? lol, that's usually the kind of stuff going through my mind when I talk with people…

It's difficult to relate to people. I have no daily experiences they want to hear about, in fact nearly everything that does happen is bad (health stuff, money stuff, etc..) ... No one likes to constantly hear you being negative, never talking about anything good/happy. Add in the normal autism/sucking at people and I’m not sought after company. lol

This is actually how I've lost most of the friends I had before I ended up on disability. lol, was never good with people at all (autism), but add it the rest of the side effects of my life and their effect on my psyche in general, and it makes me sort of a miserable person to be around I think. I honestly don't blame them; lol I wouldn't want to hang out/talk to me either really if I'm being honest.

As for the 2 vehicles, I inherited a 4x4 (literally willed to me), and my parents are nice enough to keep liability insurance on it for me so that I can occasionally go drive out into the mountains (I live in WA and they know I used to love going out and exploring/camping and stuff). Unfortunately, the cost of gas and stuff for a weekend drive out into the mountains is still more than I have to spare normally so it only happens once or twice a year if I'm lucky... Haven't gone out this year at all.

Made sense to keep because as I mentioned in my original post, it gives me something to use as collateral in an emergency if something comes up. It's basically parked 99% of the time unless something is going on with my car. Can't drive it daily, the offroad tires would wear quickly and 1 tire costs as much as the 4 tires on my car, and it gets about 11mpg (6500lb Land Cruiser V8).

The car just isnt worth anything as collateral, or to sell, so there's no real way to leverage that. Plus it gets good gas mileage and is dependable so I'm best off keeping it.

I know what you're sayin' about a limit with trading. Gets tricky though because I kinda need to use most of the money from the truck to be able to start doing it right. If I tried to do it with only half the money, the odds of success go way down. Could probably write 10 pages on the reasons for it, but the short version is, if I want to try this, it's pretty much gotta be all or nothing. Basically the more money you can start with, the safer it will be (up to a point of diminishing returns of course).

That being said I can limit possible loss on any individual trade, to a point (you can set automatic sell orders if prices fall to a certain point and stuff), but there is still risk, and if I lost on a trade, the plan is to keep going.

Losing is part of the game. "Good" traders are only make money on 60-70% of their trades typically, the trick is to try to keep losses small, and despite being wrong nearly 50% of the time they can still be quite profitable.

The trick when you're new, is to have enough money to be able to absorb some losses without knocking you out of the market completely. Survival is the key in the beginning.

Sadly, unlike poker games you have commissions, platform fees, etc... If I tried to trade with only $500 for example, its very easy to make a "good", solid trade, and end up losing money because of your commissions. If you buy 1000 shares instead of 100, suddenly the same trade gives you a nice profit after commissions instead of losing money.

Just a quick example because I think its kind of cool...

Say you buy 100 shares of a $5 stock. You spent $500.

When you buy, based on technical analysis, you're expecting the price is going to go up at least 20 cents. Price target is $5.20

Using a 2:1 Win/loss ratio (minimum hopefully), my risk will be 10 cents. So if the price falls 10 cents, down to $4.90 I will sell no matter what. However, based on my analysis it'll be far more likely to go up. So you're risking a total of $10 when you buy 100 shares.

Say I'm not very good at technical analysis, and I'm only right half of the time, and I do a series of 10 trades like this.

So out of 10 trades, 5 of them I sold when the price fell to $4.90 (lost money), and 5 I sold at $5.20.

Because you bought 100 shares each time, each "win" made you $20 (20 cents x 100)

Each time you lost, you lost $10

At the end of 10 trades, you average things out and you made a total of $50 off the $500 you spent.

Problem is, each trade, you're paying $10 (depending on broker) in commissions/fees. $5 to buy, and $5 when you sell roughly.

So, your nice $50 profit, turned into a $50 loss after commissions, and thats not including platform fees, datafeeds, etc.

Same exact trade, if you bought 1000 shares instead of 100 shares (spent $5000 instead of $500, risking $100 instead of $10), sold at $5.20 or $4.90 respectively, same as the previous example, you would have made $500 at the end of 10 trades, and subtracted $100 or so out of that in commissions, making you $400 or so in profit.

.... and thats with only being right on 50% of the trades.

It's all about managing risk properly, and understanding things enough to know what/when to trade. If you maintain a 2:1 win/loss ratio you actually are profitable (technically) down to only being right 34% of the time... lol, granted, if you're only right 34% of the time, you're not making much money, but you're not losing it either (if you're trading with big enough size not to get eaten by commissions/fees)

lol, anyway.... This concludes your crash course in trading.

Daytrading does sound a lot like gambling, but it's not, IF you're doing it correctly. If you know what you're doing, it's like counting cards vs. gambling. Card counters get banned from Casinos because they consider it cheating because your odds of winning go way up compared to the schmuck who is just playing the hand they are dealt taking nothing else into account, because it's not gambling at that point.

Like anything though, there are statistical probabilities of success and failure. The odds of success are just much higher if you don't gamble and are doing proper technical analysis of the stocks and using proper risk management.

Interestingly enough, I hate gambling... lol, went to Vegas back in the 90's and spent $50 gambling total, but this is actually alot different once you actually learn how to do it. For people who do not get educated and stuff, then it's gambling for sure.

So anyways, yeah, to me it seems like an all or nothing thing... If it works though, and all the education and practice did what education and practice are supposed to do, it could completely change my life for the better in more ways than I could list...

Hard choice... First real chance at fixing my mess of a life, but the cost is high if it fails. :/

On that note, it's bedtime... Thanks

My idea of fixing things is making the world a better place. All the stock market does is facilitate theft from people even worse off than you, and all future generations.

Day trading is a bit like gambling. My father did it for awhile. He made good money over several months but then one day he lost it all and never played the commodity market again. He had a natural knack for it but sometimes the world can turn on a dime. That is why it is so risky.