Here's one part of an email exchange I had with Autism Speaks. In short, it's more complicated than it sounds and they are aware of ethical issues, but if possible they someday hope to do it ethically. They sound a lot more reasonable than they used to be so maybe it would be possible to organize and put enough pressure on them (while being civil) to get them to support a ban on prenatal testing until abortions of babies with disabilities can be heavily discouraged, and get that in place before such a test is feasible. I hope to continue this dialogue with them.
Mr. [Browning],
That is an excellent question.
One of science's most redeeming and frustrating qualities is that it is unpredictable. We never know what we will discover or learn. There is certainly potential to find genetic markers for ASD, and these markers could be used for prenatal testing, but this screening potential is wrought with problems. Things are rarely straight forward.
Unlike Huntington's disease (and others), ASD is a multi-genetic disease. One that involves many genes within our genome. From what we can tell, or at least surmise, is that autism results from the combination of many genes, most of which we have yet to discover. Additionally, environmental factors influencing or acting on these genes certainly is playing a part as well.
So having a genetic test for ASD could suggest autism in a child within the womb, but it would be difficult to be as certain as say a test for Down Syndrome, where the genetic component is quite obvious and testable.
Additionally, prenatal tests have limits. Again lets use Down syndrome as an example. Down syndrome, when suspected, can be tested by using a common method termed the Triple Test: Amniotic fluid aspiration, Chorionic Villi biopsying and maternal serum. All of these are done in the second trimester, with the combination of all three tests being used to help discern if the fetus has Down Syndrome. Despite this, all three tests, even in combination, have error rates that make this battery less reliable than we would hope. The most definitive test is a specific ultrasound test (nuchal translucency) in the third trimester. Though highly accurate, this verification of a Down child is only discerned in the third trimester. For autism, and its complexity of phenotypes and genetic/environmental influences, I would suspect that a robust prenatal screening would be even more difficult.
Embryo biopsy and genetic screening, though very accurate if done correctly, could be a useful approach. However, this method can only be conducted in an in-vitro fertilization (IVF) lab utilizing the IVF surgical process (conception would have to be artificial). Screening could only tell you if the genes are present or missing and NOT how they are functioning. A genetic screen is only definitive if the genetic component is dominant. Meaning, that if you get/lose the gene you have the disease. Again, Down syndrome is an excellent example.
An added caveat to this is elected abortion. Science can resolve many problems, but it also can create them. Cleft pallet is a developmental state that can be detected in the third trimester of gestation. Though benign in of itself and certainly surgically correctable with minimal to no scarring, it currently ranks as the second most common reason for elected abortion in the UK. The reason being is that there is a weak association of cleft pallet and the possibility of mental retardation. Meaning that there is an observance that babies born with a clinically diagnosed form of mental retardation sometimes also have a cleft pallet. This does not mean that a cleft pallet is a sign of retardation. It only raises the risk by association. Regardless, this observance by ultrasound late in gestation is enough for some to elect for an abortion.
Ultimately, the goal of a definitive prenatal test, if achievable, would be to have gestational intervention to correct or temper any developmental abnormalities. I certainly hope we can accomplish this, but we are still years away from such an accomplishment.
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