NCAA 2009 Tournament - The road to Ford Field in Detriot

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Well the seeding is done and this year's tournament really is not that great though there are some good teams in the field.

My pick to win it all is Washington though Louisville is more than likely to win it all with Pitt getting over the Sweet Sixteen hump finally into the Final Four.

At least I'm cheering for UCLA against VCU on Thursday though I'll be cheering for VCU as well since they are in the CAA after all. It would be a game to watch at least for me to enjoy.

Sorry that Mason lost, but how about that crazy 3-point shot while falling over to tie at the buzzer by Penn State?!

I pick UNC to be national champs.

Just lucky for Battle though they have Rhode Island who is dangerous to deal with.

UNC has a few problems to face within their team since FSU beat them in ACC semifinals. Louisville has a better chance since the Big East is the toughest conference in College Basketball.

The problem I have with louisville is nonconference schedule. Yeah, they are in the mighty tough big east. but their nonconference sucked. They have 0 games against nonconference RPI top-25. And only 3 games against nonconference RPI top-50...and they lost two of them.

Compare to UNC, who not only played but blasted Mich State (RPI 6), by 35, on a neutral court.

The MAJOR problem with UNC is their guard Lawson whose foot is hurt and was benched for the ACC tourney. They couldn't beat FSU without him and they won't make the final 4 without him either.

Schedule means nothing now in tourney play. Strength of Schedule and RPI only matter for the selection committee but not any more since the field is set up. Pitt has a chance to win though they have get over their Sweet 16 hump first. UCONN has not been a powerhouse in the last two years (The Jim Larranaga/Mason Curse on them). Washington who is in the same region as UCONN could end up as regional champs. UCLA has a challenge with Eric Maynor and VCU but remember UCLA has been a Final Four participant in the last three tourney straight. That means UCLA is very experienced in the NCAA tourney than VCU.

I'm not talking about who deserves what placement, I'm talking about who'll win the whole thing.

Nonconference strength of scheduling is important because the whole tournament is nonconference, conference games are quite different. You play conference teams each year, you get to know the other teams and coaches very well as opposed to a nonconference where you might play a home&home every now and then. I don't see any resume from louisville to suggest that they are #1 in that area. Sure they're a very good basketball team but the tournament champion has to be #1 against nonconference opponents as well.

I look at Louisville's nonconference games and three teams that they play are in the tourney with Morehead facing them again.
This Louisville stat's from statsheet.com

Home 16-2 0.889
Away 8-1 0.889
Neutral 4-2 0.667
Conference 16-2 0.889
Conf Home 8-1 0.889
Conf Away 8-1 0.889
Conf Neutral 0-0 0.0
Top 25 7-1 0.875
RPI 1-50 9-3 0.75
RPI 51-100 7-2 0.778
RPI 101-150 5-0 1.0
RPI 151-200 4-0 1.0
RPI 200+ 3-0 1.0

UNC who has SOS ranking of 22 while Louisville is 11 (Stats from same site)

Home 14-1 0.933
Away 8-2 0.8
Neutral 6-1 0.857
Conference 13-3 0.813
Conf Home 7-1 0.875
Conf Away 6-2 0.75
Conf Neutral 0-0 0.0
Top 25 5-2 0.714
RPI 1-50 5-2 0.714
RPI 51-100 9-2 0.818
RPI 101-150 7-0 1.0
RPI 151-200 4-0 1.0
RPI 200+ 2-0 1.0

http://statsheet.com/mcb/rankings/RPI

I called UCLA over VCU for today and I was right.

I went 12-4 today which not bad at all though a ton of people thought VCU would win. Yeah Right!

Maynor really kept it tight, though UCLA couldn't get out of their own way half the time.

Maynor is good but what hurt VCU was points from turnovers that cost them. UCLA had 20 points from turnovers while VCU had 2 points at one in that game. One man does not make a difference in a game. Plus Maynor does have attitude issues (Note that push he did in the game [not NBA material right there if you do that]) Grant will be leaving VCU since he'll end getting offered a better paid job from big name schools like UGA and UVA.

I'm happy to see that Michigan finally made it back into the tournament, which I think is the first time since the so-called Fab Five (which "never" happened, thanks whatever that booster's name was). But they probably won't make it too much farther. Personally, I'm pulling for MSU, especially since they'd essentially be playing at home in the Final Four.

Not a great start to the tournament for the ACC (3-4) or SEC (1-2)

On the other hand, excellent starts for the Big 12 (6-0), Big East (6-1) and the Pac 10 (5-1) showing that each of those conferences deserved to have those 6-7 bids & are tough basketball conferences. Big 10 (4-3) finished about as expected.

21-11 in first round in my bracket which not bad better than Obama's bracket (lol he has a good sense of humor).

I started out this year with four favorite teams in the NCAA tournament; thus far only Boston College has lost. UConn, Villanova and Michigan State have made it to the field of 8. They are all in different regions, so conceivably could all make it to the Final Four. Pretty good tournament, for me at least!

I had UCONN, Kansas, UNC, and Villanova in the final 4. All but Kansas are in the Elite 8

Well two of the Final Four are UCONN and Villanova. Lousiville and UNC fight for their spots for Detroit tomorrow. Louisville will win it since the Big East will have half or more of the Final Four teams.