You have to look at it in both lights really:
1 = The McLaren may not be as strong as last year, because not only are they freezing their own development in three areas, but both Hamilton and Kovalainen are slightly inexperienced with setting up F1 cars. Now they've both had a year, they'll be stronger for sure, but compared to the likes of Alonso, Kimi and Massa, they may struggle.
However,
2 = As history goes, if it repeats itself, Hamilton will CRUSH the opposition. Of course, this being F1, it may not be as significant as before, but if Lewis has had a second year in a catagory, he has obliterated the competition. Like I say, not easy to do in F1, but Lewis fans can take some sort of comfort in that.
It's either one or the other. Sadly, I still feel number 1 is more likely to happen