AnnettaMarie wrote:
Probably anything that isn't on the radio will be pushed out, unless more people start actively searching for better music.
That being said, I also worry that technology will overrun the truly musically talented.
I understand your concerns about technology, I really do. For years I've complained about the effect of Auto Tune on the music industry, and its implications of an institutional fetish for pitch-perfectness. But Auto Tune aside, there's another side to that coin, and it's where I believe technology actually plays a far greater role. I refer, of course, to the means of music distribution. CDs haven't quite gone the way of dinosaurs and vinyl just yet, but it is happening. iTunes is already a far more powerful engine for media consumption than some well established record stores; just the other day I was in downtown Vancouver, and I noticed that the big HMV on Burrard Street was finally gone after a few months of advertising its closing. That's a problem for record stores, and for people who, like myself, like the experience of going to the record store, communing with fellow music lovers, and digging through the stacks looking for something interesting. However, it also poses a peculiar problem for the recording companies as well. It's been about five years now since Radiohead and Nine Inch Nails simultaneously first experimented with cutting out the record companies as middlemen, and their success in establishing new expectations for the way business gets conducted has ramifications for the diversity of music that gets produced.
The range of music that is available to the broader public has never been as eclectic as it is now. In large part, we have the Internet to thank for that. The record companies and radio stations may still try to push Justin Bieber and Rebecca Black as if nothing about their consumer base has changed-- but the reality is, they don't hold their decades-long monopolies on music anymore. We have alternatives now. YouTube suffices as a pick-your-own-playlist radio, iTunes is a relatively easy way to buy music, and there are even services like Pandora that help people discover new music they might like, based upon their established tastes. If the record companies and radio stations don't begin to pander to the broader tastes of demographics they used to be able to neglect and malign, they stand to lose a significant chunk of their profit margin-- or, more importantly, their existential relevence.
With that in mind-- I don't think rap is going anywhere, or hard rock/heavy metal, or pop. Those three genres seem destined to jostle each other endlessly for mainstream attention. It's hard to foresee what new genres might arise even within the next decade, let alone twenty years. But the rules of thumb seem to be that the stale gets pushed aside, and that the music of twenty to thirty years ago plays a role in influencing the current generation of emerging musicians. For example, the 2000s saw an upswelling in stripped-down garage rock influenced by 70s classic rock, as well as a bit of an 80s New Wave nostalgia movement. Based on that, if I had to guess, I would surmise that the next wave of music, the children of the 90s, will likely be heavily influenced by the Gen X grunge and alternative rock explosion. I don't think it will be quite the same as the watered-down post-grunge stuff that's been about since Cobain died, though. Hopefully, there will be a movement, much like there was when
Nevermind and
Ten were released, to abandon the artifice of the radio status quo and restore some much needed introspection and honesty to the mainstream. Generation Y is coming into its own as musicians now, and as it is a fairly populous age bracket, they're sure to put a pretty large mark on the music culture as they reach the age where music like Justin Bieber's is no longer palatable.
_________________
Mediocrity is a petty vice; aspiring to it is a grievous sin.