I can't nail a perfect answer down for you on this but its two things combined - how your moods express outwardly and the types of women reacting. Certain outward signals look right, certain one's don't, and occasionally that can mean that things will seem odd or arbitrary, or, you could be in a position where if no expression you have mimics confidence or independence nothing will work. Its not to say that it isn't a huge world out there with all kinds of people, just that general trends tend to favor expressive modes that show strength - typically via confidence and or independence, you apparently show both of those when you're feeling either confident or like 'death warmed over' as you put it, while you're likely coming off as too human or vulnerable when you're displaying other states. Part of it may also being a guy in the right places where society puts a big demand on us to be stoics.