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funeralxempire
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16 Oct 2024, 1:06 pm


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roronoa79
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16 Oct 2024, 3:34 pm

Mona Pereth wrote:
roronoa79 wrote:
The colonizers will eventually pack up and leave like they did in Algeria, Vietnam, Zimbabwe, and so many other places

Nope. Too many Israelis have nowhere to "pack up and leave" to.

Indeed. And even if they did, most of them probably can't afford to just up and move to some other country whenever. Those who are able to leave will be those who are wealthy enough to leave and who hate the idea of sharing power with non-Jews so much they can't stand to stay.

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I see two possible outcomes:

1) The best possible outcome would be a single binational Israel-Palestine state, somewhat like the ending of Apartheid in South Africa, but with some extra built-in constitutional protections for both Jews and indigenous Palestinians (e.g. absolutely no more evictions of Palestinians).

I honestly see this as the more likely outcome. I see Israel changing its name and becoming a multi-cultural society where Jews and non-Jews can live as equals.

Quote:
2) Unfortunately, the more likely outcome is a long genocidal war, killing millions of people all over the Middle East and maybe around the world.

Why do you see this as the more likely outcome? The Israeli public does not have the will to support a widespread regional war as you describe. There are already mass protests against continuing the war just in Lebanon or Gaza.
This is basically the Rhodesia Outcome: a protracted, bloody civil war spilling into neighboring countries and resulting in the mass expulsion of the apartheid ruling class. Rhodesia's white establishment was able to opt for violent repression and war for as long as they did, ironically, because of stalwart diplomatic and materiél support from Israel. Israel does not have any allies that are as pro-apartheid as they are, so I hope it will become increasingly obvious to the powers that be that Israel cannot win all wars forever and cannot maintain apartheid with the whole world against it--or at least with no allies supporting it as much as Israel supported other apartheid regimes. Hopefully moderate voices in Israeli society will see the writing on the wall and call for a peaceful transition to a multi-national state with equal rights for all. Knowing the Israeli far-right, they might try to stage a coup to prevent this (a la the Spanish far right after Franco), but they will have limited support in Israeli society, and even less support internationally outside rhe most die-hard Zionists.

With either outcome, I think there will, at minimum, be ongoing, low-level sectarian conflict. I imagine the situation will be somewhat similar to The Troubles in Ireland, or possibly ethnic tensions in the former Yugoslavia.
As time goes on and reparations are made, sectarian resentment will hopefully die down, and we, as a Planet, can move the hell on.


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funeralxempire
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16 Oct 2024, 4:02 pm


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Mona Pereth
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16 Oct 2024, 6:01 pm

roronoa79 wrote:
Mona Pereth wrote:
I see two possible outcomes:

1) The best possible outcome would be a single binational Israel-Palestine state, somewhat like the ending of Apartheid in South Africa, but with some extra built-in constitutional protections for both Jews and indigenous Palestinians (e.g. absolutely no more evictions of Palestinians).

I honestly see this as the more likely outcome. I see Israel changing its name and becoming a multi-cultural society where Jews and non-Jews can live as equals.

Quote:
2) Unfortunately, the more likely outcome is a long genocidal war, killing millions of people all over the Middle East and maybe around the world.

Why do you see this as the more likely outcome? The Israeli public does not have the will to support a widespread regional war as you describe. There are already mass protests against continuing the war just in Lebanon or Gaza.
This is basically the Rhodesia Outcome: a protracted, bloody civil war spilling into neighboring countries and resulting in the mass expulsion of the apartheid ruling class. Rhodesia's white establishment was able to opt for violent repression and war for as long as they did, ironically, because of stalwart diplomatic and materiél support from Israel. Israel does not have any allies that are as pro-apartheid as they are, so I hope it will become increasingly obvious to the powers that be that Israel cannot win all wars forever and cannot maintain apartheid with the whole world against it--or at least with no allies supporting it as much as Israel supported other apartheid regimes. Hopefully moderate voices in Israeli society will see the writing on the wall and call for a peaceful transition to a multi-national state with equal rights for all. Knowing the Israeli far-right, they might try to stage a coup to prevent this (a la the Spanish far right after Franco), but they will have limited support in Israeli society, and even less support internationally outside rhe most die-hard Zionists.

I hope you're right.

The problem is getting the U.S. government to cut down its military support for Israel. This will require not only a substantial change in popular opinion here in the U.S.A., but also the emergence of a significant organized anti-Zionist political movement, to counterbalance the very large, very well-organized pro-Israel lobby/movement.

Said anti-Zionist movement will also need to avoid the pitfall of stirring up bigotry against Jews (which would be counterproductive as well as wrong in its own right), while at the same time pushing back against the idea that opposition to Israel as an Apartheid-like ethno-state is intrinsically "anti-semitic". Unfortunately, striking this balance will likely become a non-trivial challenge as the anti-Zionist movement grows.


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