The hype now is that the new OpenAI GPT 01 is 'beyond Phd level'. That would be terrifying if true (imagine 10,000 free Phd's and what that does to the economy and knowledge infrastructure when upper management does what they do best - throw out people who have knowledge on things they didn't even know existed in their organization and that loss of 'intellectual dark matter', a phrase I believe Samo Burja coined when referencing loss of generational knowledge transfer).
I actually don't think it needs to be flawless to have significant impact on employment. That we can ask relatively fuzzy linguistic questions and they get those largely correct means you can triage hours of preliminary research to build a map of a subject and prioritize your plan of attack. Add now that the STEM stuff is coming along it may be overhyped in some ways but it's far from nothing.
Programming is a trickier thing because even if you could program verbally you'd still need to know a lot about what's under the hood to scope changes / updates correctly. Similarly debugging would be quite a strange thing when you have no clue what it will do if you tell it about a bug and it patches the bug - does something else break? If you're not down in the code yourself you can't be sure of it. Building software is a dialogical process because no one knows exactly what they need typically until you build what they asked for and they realized that they knew a lot of the core business processes they need covered but they forgot others, or they go talk to Cindy in accounting who clarifies that they need another collection process in a given workflow as output so you still need to reach in deep and add another chain of data collection.
My biggest concern is that a large part of what will be automated would be introvert and by extension autism-friendly jobs. It'll suck if we're all forced to give up the back room stuff and forced to be nurses, sales people, etc..
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The loneliest part of life: it's not just that no one is on your cloud, few can even see your cloud.