How Trump could possibly lose the 2024 election

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Not sure how those maps contribute to predicting the outcome of the election, but it's my understanding that most of the swing states that decided the 2020 election in favor of Biden, are now leaning towards Trump. Some have reformed their election laws in an effort to avoid a repeat of 2020.

How can Trump lose the election? He is really unpopular. Just as there are a lot of motivated MAGA’s there are a lot of very motivated anti Trump people.

As mentioned here and nearly everywhere else this election is very close. Anybody having any confidence in a prediction of a winner are not forecasting, they are wishcasting or doomcasting.


I greatly fear the what might happen between election day and what is supposed to be inauguration day. I don’t expect the losing side to accept the results. A super close election increases the chance of this exponentially. There will be many court challenges. While most will be unsuccessful there will be a number of them still unresolved on what is supposed to be inauguration day January 20th.

In an event of a Trump victory I expect a record shattering amount of Democrats voting not to certify. In the event of a Harris victory I do not expect no more than one or two Republicans to vote to certify.

In the event of a Harris victory it will not be a repeat of the Biden victory. Most everybody is aware the government will be prepared for any attempt to repeat Jan 6. The hope is that all the convictions will act as a deterrent. Before one gets overconfident the caution of deterrence might very well be swept away by emotions generated by events and watching conservative and right media go into overdrive. I don’t know exactly what will happen if Harris wins but I strongly expect it to be very bad.

If Trump wins I expect an escalation of what we have seen in the last few years with the disruptive and beyond the BLM and Pro Palestinian movements. While as we have been reminded over and over and over again these protests have been “mostly peaceful” as people get caught up in the emotion of an apparent existential crises the peaceful to violent ratio will significantly change. I believe it naive that to think elements of the left are not arming up in expectation of “Trump is Hitler” and enabled right wingers terrorists. What are now shutting down/cancelation campaigns via cyberstalking, mobbing, and shouting down against perceived enablers of fascism and racism will morph into shooting and bombing them.

The fact that he's an ex con will be enough for him to lose by a landslide. Nobody wants an ex con for a president.