This prediction does not factor in faithless electors, a coup etc.
Here is my very, very, very, very low confidence prediction.
I have been chastising people for years who say this thing or that thing is the thing that will actually finally doom Trump. Occasionally during these rants I mentioned if you keep on predicting it enough times by the law of averages you will eventually be right. The prediction is this is that time.
The insult comic’s remarks have really resonated. The swing state of Pennsylvania has 450,000 people of Puerto Rican descent and over 1,000,000 people of Hispanic descent a demographic Trump has been making headway with.
Senior Citizens have been a Republican leaning demographic. If polling is right this has shifted. Some people say older women remember a time when abortion was illegal and they don’t want that for their Granddaughters and Great-granddaughters. Senior Citizens vote in high numbers, it’s a patriotic, soldiers died to protect my right to vote thing.
Pollster Ann Selzer has
a very high reputation in the industry. She just polls Iowa. Her final poll showed Harris winning by 3 points in a state Trump won by 10 in 2020.
Personal Note:The failure of the insurrection and the swearing in of Joe Biden was another one of those this time Trump is really doomed moments for most who hate Trump. Not for me. Expecting Trump to be back I have been thinking about and anticipating this day since January, 21, 2021. That this day is here especially after all the unexpected twists and turns this election cycle took is a surreal feeling.
I just had to do what I have been warning others against doing all these years.