Still a place for desktop development apps in near future?

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I'm a software developer, among other things, and while I use C/C++, Java, PHP and others, I've always had a soft spot for BASIC, or more specifically, object-oriented GUI BASIC, like VB, REALbasic, etc. Obviously MS VB6 is long dead, and with modern versions of MS VB only generating .NET binaries, VB is no longer an option for those who want to make native apps. I have used REALbasic since their early days on 68k Macs, but in recent years the company apparently has gone down-hill, bug-fixing and feature implementation has been spotty, the company has been doing desperate cash-grabs as of late and the way they treat customers has really become atrocious, so I will not support such a company by using their product or giving them any more of my money. I have seen other cross-platform VB-like projects, but they usually don't last long or are pretty cheesy.

I've been thinking about creating cross-platform development apps for desktop and laptop computers, with one of these apps possibly competing with VB and RB, but I'm wondering...if I put six months to a year of labor into a cross-platform development app, will there still be a need for desktop apps after that, or do you think that mobile devices are going to kill people's desire to use desktop or laptop computers? Obviously desktop computers are not going to be extinct in six months to a year, but based on my previous product releases, people don't really start buying en masse until sometimes a year *after* you release a product.

Do you think targeting desktop/laptop users only (at least at first) will be wise now, two years or four years down the road, or has the day of the desktop/laptop come and gone?

The same applications that are used on laptops and desktops will migrate to the mobile devices. The need for the applications wont go away. Memory, computing power, displays, printing, and input devices of mobile devices are a long way from the capabilities of laptops.

read today at Seth Godin's blog
What I want to say is that there's always market for a niche, for something specific that people need/want.

but, mobile is getting bigger and bigger everyday: 50% of Apple's revenue comes from products that didn't exist three years ago!
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Have you thought about targeting Mobile first?

The mobile device market is certainly one that's quickly growing, but I don't think they'll kill the desktop market at all. I can still do a lot on my MacBook which I can't on my iPhone 3GS.

Yes it will be a long time before hand held devices supersede laptops and desktops.

I think laptop will eventual be supplanted by Smartphones. But desktops will stick around for quite a while longer in some form or another. The reason being laptops where made to be portable smartphone are more portable, and when smartphone eventual surpass laptops in processing power then that will be that, desktops have stuck around as long as they have because people can get inside them improve/upgrade/customize them, if something was going too replace desktops it would have bin laptops.

Handhelds are going to revolutionize desktops, but try to imagine people working at desks with tiny monitors and keyboards. No.

Sooner or later the box will be tiny (check out shivaplug with google for instance), but the monitors, mice and keyboards need to be large.