Drake Equation or Rare Earth?

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Putting aside the UFO loons, and getting a bit more reasonable, regarding aliens. What is your take on the issue.
Does the Drake Equation makes some probabilistic sense or is it bunk?
Or the Rare Earth Hyphotesis makes more sense.

I personally am more inclined to the Rare Earth Hypothesis (without certainty on it), regarding intelligent life. Bare in mind, that does not mean 'we are the only ones', but I think it can make some sense, considering the lack of observation and evidence, and that if there is life out there, what are the odds of having evolved into intelligent beings.

Last edited by blunnet on 04 Aug 2011, 3:26 am, edited 1 time in total.

Bunk. Most of the factors in the Dreck (I mean Drake) Equation are beyond our power or ability to reckon.

ruveyn

It might have something to it... but it is just theoretical at best since the numbers you need to plug in to the equation are all at best educated guesses
I am inclined to think that the Rare Earth Hypothesis might also be true- but the question is HOW rare are Earth-like garden planets? I actually think this is irrelevant mostly because I don't think Earth-like biochemistry is the only option when it comes to organic life.

It has yet to be proven that intelligent life has evolved or ever will evolve on earth.

And no, that is not a Creationist stress shift quibble.

Is intelligence to be defined by the trivial trait of being inclined to consider oneself intelligent?

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good point (bolded)

I would think in this case that 'intelligence' is more a measure of technological achievements and knowledge of the universe's fundamental systems. How an entity gets to these conclusions is what interests me; does life need to evolve like Humanity to develop to a 'technological' level, or can these ends be reached in other ways. In a way life is (counter-intuitively to some, I am sure) the action of bringing chaos to order yet at the same time order to chaos. Is it inevitable that life will attempt to 'push' itself from its origin point through either natural or artificial means- via impacts resulting in transmission of material or through advanced development of technological or biological space flight

i think the different ways life can adopt makes it quite probable (not that we have any way of knowing)
though i guess goldilocks planets of similar composition might be very rare.

the real trouble to me is not that we know too little of the enviroments of other worlds but that we know too little about life and it's features.

What about a third choice--where Earthlike planets are plentiful but lifeforms comparable to human intelligence and ability are few?

I take offense at the term 'UFO loons'. Who the hell are you to say UFOs are crazy or non-existent?

Anyway, sorry, that just is a peeve of mine. I think life is abundant throughout the galaxy - intelligent life probably arises relatively rarely, but when it does, it spreads throughout many star systems. I have heard that we are not the original humans, that the first humans came from i think the constellation Lyra or something like that and we are just a backwater colony of the human family.

Don't forget dolphins. Maybe someday Homo Sapiens will evolve enough to enjoy a lifestyle like they have achieved. Instead of the rat race, they spend all day swimming and fishing!

The concept of Drake's equation is sound, but it misses many, many factors, some of which we do not yet know. For example, original Drake equation does not consider that Earth probably needed a moon and the giant planets to divert asteroids.

So long! And thanks for all the fish

Actually, you are right. Douglas Adams suggestion that they could be visiting aliens (instead of evolving here) would explain why they are so much more advanced than we are.

Good point! I wonder if there are any other scenarios which could allow life (as we know it) to evolve. Maybe other scenarios would allow a very different sort of life to evolve.

Beware the imperial intergalactic parakeets.

That might be the first time anyone ever strung those words together!

I lean towards rare Earth. Though who knows for sure... interesting spelling in the OP though.