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04 Jan 2012, 2:59 am

http://news.yahoo.com/gop-romney-beats- ... 41845.html

Interesting results, now to see if this will shape the race for the nomination.

What are your thoughts on this?


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minervx
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04 Jan 2012, 3:06 am

essentially a tie for santorum and romney, but romney is the real winner.

santorum only proved he could win in the state that he focused his entire campaign in.

romney proved that he could win in a state that was considered by pundits months ago to be out his reach, showing him to be more versatile. though he wouldn't have won this if it were later on,

ron paul's 3rd place isn't impressive enough to make him a frontrunner, and will only introduce him to new scrutiny.

for candidates like bachmann, perry, and gingrich, this will mean funding troubles, and eventual dropouts.

if less people drop, romney divides the "anti-romney" vote.

if more people drop, then one anti-romney candidate gets a critical mass.

ultimately, this only solidifies that romney wins.



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04 Jan 2012, 3:54 am

I was rooting for a Ron Paul, but this is just a small setback. Huckabee won Iowa and where did it lead him?


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AspergianRyan
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04 Jan 2012, 4:38 am

John McCain got fourth place in the 2008 Iowa caucuses, trailing distantly between the top-tier candidates, so it's kinda fuzzy on whether or not Iowa is a great indicator of electability. The fact that Ron Paul still got third even under the re-released newsletter scrutiny bolsters his fervent support, and it also shows how the media is determined to undermine him.



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04 Jan 2012, 1:05 pm

The difference between Romney in '12 and Huckabee in '08 is that Romney is much more a presumptive nominee, facing an array of opposing forces. Huckabee needed to translate a win in Iowa into momentum, which he failed. Romney needed to perform well in Iowa to maintain momentum. Whether he has done so will probably be clearer after New Hampshire.

I'm not so dismissive as minervx about the significance for Paul. Someone has to be the standard bearer for the anti-Romney forces and it surely won't be Santorum. If Paul polls well in New Hampshire, that might still solidify things for him. But the same can be said for Gingrich.


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04 Jan 2012, 1:07 pm

Actually, looking back, I think 5 of the last 6 Iowa winners did wind up winning the nomination. So Huckabee was just a fluke. Not saying I've stopped holding out hope. There's always the independent ticket! I'll even write him in if I have to.


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04 Jan 2012, 4:01 pm

But will anyone even remember the Iowa results by the time the Republicans pick their nominee?

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04 Jan 2012, 11:02 pm

If Mitt, Rick and Ron each get 7 delegates then it will be a 3 way tie.



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05 Jan 2012, 4:28 am

i would disagree with some of the above comments.

i personally believe that iowa is a very important primary
in this race mainly because of funding.

perhaps people won't remember iowa in 3 months from
now but iowa is what decides the funding.

gingrich, whose funding was already in danger, and perry,
who spent a large amount of money in this state, will both
likely suffer donation shortages.



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05 Jan 2012, 4:31 am

minervx wrote:
i would disagree with some of the above comments.

i personally believe that iowa is a very important primary
in this race mainly because of funding.

perhaps people won't remember iowa in 3 months from
now but iowa is what decides the funding.

gingrich, whose funding was already in danger, and perry,
who spent a large amount of money in this state, will both
likely suffer donation shortages.


Very true.

-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer