J-Greens wrote:
If Scotland vote for independence, then I wouldn't be surprised if the republicans pushed through a similar proposal in N.Ireland - they've already shown they can use the political clout already. Sure, you can pretty much expect war on the streets as a result, but for once and for all, the people could get a referendum to end the troubles permanently.
I don't think it's too far-fetched to say that after 2030 we could be looking at the dissolution of the United Kingdom. The overseas territories are too small to be run by themselves and many are disputed with other countries - Gibraltar & Falklands are the obvious two, but geographically, you could argue that other developed countries could sustainably run them to the standards set already.
It's why I feel the Scottish vote that's coming up is so important. Not just for Scotland itself but the future of the UK as a whole entity.
There is a fundamental difference, though. Scotland's referendum is a simple, "in or out" question. Remain in the United Kingdom, or become an independent state.
But with Northern Ireland there are three possibilities: Remaining in the United Kingdom, union with Eire or independence. As any Australian republican can tell you, questions with three possible solutions make for problematic referenda.
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--James