US Election Prediction Thread

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03 Nov 2024, 9:57 pm

You can use the interactive map to create your prediction.

https://www.270towin.com/

Here's mine, not that I'm likely to be correct:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/rR7Bo

If anyone is correct the prize is the eternal admiration and appreciation of the WP userbase.

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Tim_Tex
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04 Nov 2024, 3:02 am

https://www.270towin.com/maps/jZDN2

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Gentleman Argentum
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04 Nov 2024, 3:38 am

funeralxempire wrote:

This looks like fun. I examined both of your maps. Anything seems possible to me, I do not really know.

Two weeks ago, my firm belief was that Kamala and the Democrats would win. My main reason for thinking so is that she has a much better photo. I think that sort of thing matters a lot more than is commonly estimated.

I still believe that this is the most likely outcome, but the outcome has become a little less clear to me.

I don't know enough to play on the map. :lol:

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Carbonhalo
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04 Nov 2024, 5:29 am

I predict civil war and the dissolution of the union

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04 Nov 2024, 6:38 am

According to the media..its looking like a tight race ... but the media needs the attn. to make money too..?
Nothing sells like anxiety . or fear mongering . Mean while back in the real world ...The main player in the Israeli conflict is the USa and its proxies . And there is a slaughter going on. And its the US population that needs to be distracted from the actions of Israel . So better make the Pesidential race look tight , even threats of civil War.!
Are in the wind . Meanwhile back in the real rest of the World . The Military industrial Complex sells bombs from the USA , tests the best technologies in real world wartime applications.. These Corporations are doing Great business right now
as well as the Israeli miltary weapons manufacturing businesses. Perhaps no body is winning except Businesses engaged in making weapons and all things that support War. . So , perhaps you might think this is conspirascy theory.
Except President Dwight Eisenhauer , had warned us about the Military Industrial complex .Even some early founding fathers warned about keeping a democracy.

hopefully the correct Presidential Candidate will win ..?.. :roll:

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04 Nov 2024, 9:32 am

I predict, regardless of the outcome, that Orange Jesus will declare himself the winner.

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04 Nov 2024, 10:55 am

My prediction - I'm not going to do state by state because I don't know enough - is that the race isn't nearly as close as the polls currently have it. I think Harris will win the popular vote by a considerable margin and just about squeak the electoral college.

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04 Nov 2024, 1:30 pm

The pollsters are so scared of being wrong that they're actively choosing to feed us garbage data by "herding". Impossible to really tell in which direction. Looks like NYT (and Selzer) might be the only ones who are actually doing a good job, which isn't a good situation for us to be in as they can still be wrong.

My best guess is the same as Tim Tex but with Nevada going to Harris. I think Trump looks better in the Sun Belt (compared to 2020) with Harris having the edge in the Rust Belt. But even the NYT is showing seven states as too close to call.

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04 Nov 2024, 1:32 pm

Tim_Tex wrote:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/jZDN2

That's a tight one.

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04 Nov 2024, 1:33 pm

Honey69 wrote:

I predict, regardless of the outcome, that Orange Jesus will declare himself the winner.

I agree.

Although it's like predicting there will be a winner, it's certain. :lol:

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04 Nov 2024, 1:36 pm

funeralxempire wrote:

Although it's like predicting there will be a winner, it's certain. :lol:

It could end up being tied in the electoral college, in which case, I think, Trump wins.

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04 Nov 2024, 3:49 pm

I'll bet after tomorrow there will be lots of Americans wanting to movie up here to Canada again. Dare I tell them this country isn't the magical winter wonderland they think it is? Especially since they'll need lots of luck affording a place to live and buying food?

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04 Nov 2024, 10:07 pm

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-isn ... -steal-it/

Quote:

Team Trump know they have lost. They have known for a while. They are not playing to win. They’re playing to steal the election.

During the past week alone, they have released as many fake polls—75 in total, created not to reflect public opinion but to serve a political purpose—as they have during the entire period since Kamala Harris officially became the Democratic candidate..

These polls are not intended to have an effect on the outcome of the election. Rather, their purpose is to tee up Big Lie 2.0, Trump’s argument that he was ahead, the polls showed it and that any Harris victory has to be the result of cheating.

While such polls are costly, estimates suggest that tens of millions have been spent on politically-biased purpose polls during the course of this campaign, and require an enormous amount of coordination, they are by no means the only part of the extensive effort by Trump, his campaign, the MAGA GOP and the enemy governments who are supporting their efforts to lay the groundwork for a massive series of challenges to the 2024 election results.

These challenges have included everything from Trump social media posts this past week suggesting that Pennsylvania election officials are rigging the election against him, to scores of lawsuits across the country seeking to get voters stripped from voting rolls (which will provide important fodder for future claims to delay certification)—or, as in the case of Georgia, to stop the state from processing ballots from drop boxes to the spread of disinformation about the elections (including fictitious stories created, peddled and promoted by Russian intelligence).

Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg has designated the people behind the purpose polls as “red wave” pollsters because some of them were behind the misperception that Republicans would do far better than they did in the 2022 election. He asserts that such pollsters dropped 17 polls on Sunday alone and at least 75 during the past week. His estimate it is that something like 125 such polls have been circulated since August.

He also counts “prediction markets” like Polymarket, funded by Trump supporters like Peter Thiel, as part of this overall effort to create a misperception about the state of the campaign and to “shape the election narrative for Trump.”

Political analyst Rachel Bitecofer tweeted on this phenomenon, “When Republicans lose on Tuesday they‘ll be shocked bc all the polls they paid for promised them they’d win. That‘s a feature, not a bug, you the ’flood the zone’ strategy Rs are using. They need people expect to win to get them to commit felonies for Trump.” ...

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05 Nov 2024, 4:01 am

I don't think I wanna know the outcome of this election

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05 Nov 2024, 7:09 am

Honey69 wrote:

funeralxempire wrote:

Although it's like predicting there will be a winner, it's certain. :lol:

It could end up being tied in the electoral college, in which case, I think, Trump wins.

How the House would pick the president in the event of an Electoral College tie

Quote:

The election has already been filled with eye-popping and historically unusual events. One other potential scenario looms this fall: the "contingent election" of the president and the vice president that would happen if no one can secure the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidential election.

That has not happened in the modern era, but there are a few conceivable (if unlikely) paths across the Electoral College map that could lead to former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris ending the race tied at 269 electoral votes.

Some of those scenarios include Republicans’ winning all of Nebraska’s votes, an uphill battle because the state doles out a vote to the winner of each of its congressional districts and Harris is favored to win in the Omaha-area 2nd District. (That’s why Republicans briefly, and unsuccessfully, sought to change Nebraska’s rules and make it a winner-take-all state.) And it's much less likely that a third-party candidate will win electoral votes and prevent someone else from getting a majority or that faithless electors will refuse to support a candidate, with the same end result.

In the event of a tie, Congress would decide the next president.

While the process would be hotly contested and historic, Congress has a set process to decide a president in that scenario, which would undoubtedly come after a slew of court challenges in key states aimed at challenging the election results there.

Here's how it would work.

“Each state, regardless of population, casts a single vote for President in a contingent election,” according to the Congressional Research Service. That means the group of House members from each state would choose among the three candidates with the most Electoral College voters, and the candidate with the backing of the majority of states would win.

The newly elected Congress taking office in January would vote in that scenario. So the results of the congressional elections would loom large.

Republicans have majority control of 26 state delegations, while Democrats have majority control of 22 delegations, and two states (Minnesota and North Carolina) are tied. Members of Congress would not be bound to vote for their party’s candidate, but they would surely face immense pressure to do so.

Although Washington, D.C., has three electoral votes in the presidential election, it would not have a vote in the House in a contingent election because it is not a state.

In a contingent election, the vice president is chosen by a full vote of the Senate, with each senator casting his or her own vote for one of the two vice presidential candidates with the most electoral votes.

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05 Nov 2024, 1:28 pm

This prediction does not factor in faithless electors, a coup etc.

Here is my very, very, very, very low confidence prediction.

I have been chastising people for years who say this thing or that thing is the thing that will actually finally doom Trump. Occasionally during these rants I mentioned if you keep on predicting it enough times by the law of averages you will eventually be right. The prediction is this is that time.

The insult comic’s remarks have really resonated. The swing state of Pennsylvania has 450,000 people of Puerto Rican descent and over 1,000,000 people of Hispanic descent a demographic Trump has been making headway with.

Senior Citizens have been a Republican leaning demographic. If polling is right this has shifted. Some people say older women remember a time when abortion was illegal and they don’t want that for their Granddaughters and Great-granddaughters. Senior Citizens vote in high numbers, it’s a patriotic, soldiers died to protect my right to vote thing.

Pollster Ann Selzer has a very high reputation in the industry. She just polls Iowa. Her final poll showed Harris winning by 3 points in a state Trump won by 10 in 2020.

Personal Note:
The failure of the insurrection and the swearing in of Joe Biden was another one of those this time Trump is really doomed moments for most who hate Trump. Not for me. Expecting Trump to be back I have been thinking about and anticipating this day since January, 21, 2021. That this day is here especially after all the unexpected twists and turns this election cycle took is a surreal feeling.

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