Membership and posts

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[old img]http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/5804/firstpostbf3.png[/img]
The above is an older graph, with some glitches at the start, where I picked users that had not posted until a while after they registered.
However, I have just messed up my login on ImageShack, and until that's sorted out, I'm slightly stuck. I can't be bothered to create a new username - I'll wait until ImageShack sort out why my password change hasn't been accepted... PS. I've managed to log in, and now it discards all my uploads. Bleugh.

The source data (FirstPost1.csv) for what will be the updated version of above graph is:

(The final column is calculated)

I chose users who had registered then (mostly) immediately posted.

It gives a rough idea of the rate at which WP has grown.

Posts per member is just over 72. I suppose I could analyse this to get a rather unrealistic "Average post rate". At a guess, that would come out at between one and two posts per week.

Last edited by lau on 16 Jun 2008, 10:48 am, edited 1 time in total.

Very cool

Starting to follow a predictable pattern after April/May 2006 by the looks of it. Wonder if it will stay like that or do a bell curve. I predict a general levelling out maybe due to competition or anonymity due to size. These are my first thoughts anyway.

People are unpredictable so anything could happen.

[old img]http://img212.imageshack.us/img212/7751/firstpost1bn1.png[/img]

(I haven't worked out what's happening at ImageShack. Eventually I found a page that actually uploaded, and KEPT, my image, via "Classic View" and a link down the bottom of that page. Most odd.)

Last edited by lau on 16 Jun 2008, 10:48 am, edited 1 time in total.

Very neat analysis... like to see more data points but nice none the less.

Of course, you have odd folks like me who have been lurking since just after about June of 2004 but didn't register and post until near the end of 2007.

Posts per...
user day user.day

I threw in a few more data points....

"join","user number","first post number"
14/06/04,2,13
17/06/04,4,36
20/06/04,8,17
24/06/04,17,97
25/06/04,31,155
28/06/04,63,416
04/07/04,129,707
11/07/04,254,1617
02/09/04,510,5465
18/11/04,706,10000
05/02/05,931,18820
23/03/05,1402,26355
03/06/05,1700,42979
04/08/05,1999,69800
01/11/05,2500,114365
12/12/05,3200,143462
20/02/06,3998,191162
16/05/06,5000,224655
05/09/06,6402,285314
15/12/06,7997,376690
30/01/07,9000,432675
17/03/07,10000,514599
29/04/07,11002,619085
14/06/07,12007,745657
09/08/07,13000,843633
02/11/07,14783,1000000
02/01/08,15998,1122830
08/04/08,18442,1330843
16/06/08,19983,1519721
26/07/08,20781,1601387

Last edited by lau on 14 Oct 2008, 7:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Thats great, must have been a lot of work.

Well done Lau

Posts per...
user day user.day

One more data point....

"join","user number","first post number"
14/06/04,2,13
17/06/04,4,36
20/06/04,8,17
24/06/04,17,97
25/06/04,31,155
28/06/04,63,416
04/07/04,129,707
11/07/04,254,1617
02/09/04,510,5465
18/11/04,706,10000
05/02/05,931,18820
23/03/05,1402,26355
03/06/05,1700,42979
04/08/05,1999,69800
01/11/05,2500,114365
12/12/05,3200,143462
20/02/06,3998,191162
16/05/06,5000,224655
05/09/06,6402,285314
15/12/06,7997,376690
30/01/07,9000,432675
17/03/07,10000,514599
29/04/07,11002,619085
14/06/07,12007,745657
09/08/07,13000,843633
02/11/07,14783,1000000
02/01/08,15998,1122830
08/04/08,18442,1330843
16/06/08,19983,1519721
26/07/08,20781,1601387
14/10/08,22329,1769644

Last edited by lau on 24 Nov 2008, 11:53 am, edited 1 time in total.

Cool Lau

Maybe someone else joined whilst you were compiling that too

N.B. We should pass the 2 million posts in about six days time.
(25,000 members a month after that.)


Posts per... user day user.day

Last edited by lau on 18 Mar 2009, 2:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

what happened in 2006? when the posts fell

The posts didn't fall.

The posts per user fell.

Both the member count and post count have been rising exponentially, for all the time WP has been going. However, in 2006, although the rate of arrival of new members was still going up steeply, there was somewhat less posting going on than usual. As a result, the average posts per user, over the whole lifetime of the board, went down.

=======

OTOH, you could say that it was all my fault. The board was getting along fine, then I joined, and I didn't post for eight months. I think I've made up for that, since.

=======

OTOOH, 2006 was a bit of an upheaval time, and is when WP threw off a few schismatic boards.

I've added the graph of the number of new users joining WP per day.



<- New users and posts per day <- Posts per user <- Posts per user per day

Last edited by lau on 10 Oct 2009, 3:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.

It's been rather a while since I updated this. A settled period, I guess.



<- New users and posts per day <- Posts per user <- Posts per user per day

"join","user number","first post number"
14/06/04,2,13
17/06/04,4,36
20/06/04,8,17
24/06/04,17,97
25/06/04,31,155
28/06/04,63,416
04/07/04,129,707
11/07/04,254,1617
02/09/04,510,5465
18/11/04,706,10000
05/02/05,931,18820
23/03/05,1402,26355
03/06/05,1700,42979
04/08/05,1999,69800
01/11/05,2500,114365
12/12/05,3200,143462
20/02/06,3998,191162
16/05/06,5000,224655
05/09/06,6402,285314
15/12/06,7997,376690
30/01/07,9000,432675
17/03/07,10000,514599
29/04/07,11002,619085
14/06/07,12007,745657
09/08/07,13000,843633
02/11/07,14783,1000000
02/01/08,15998,1122830
08/04/08,18442,1330843
16/06/08,19983,1519721
26/07/08,20781,1601387
14/10/08,22329,1769644
24/11/08,23193,1870874
14/01/09,24234,1983805
18/03/09,25656,2108614
21/05/09,27169,2209019
03/08/09,28774,2322180
10/10/09,30474,2418579