corroonb wrote:
twoshots wrote:
corroonb wrote:
I think human overpopulation is one of the most difficult challenges facing the planet. Countries like China and India are producing more and more people who will need food, electricity, cars. All these will increase fossil fuel use and the conflict the need for oil and gas appears to be fueling. The US, Europe, Japan also have much responsibility.
It seems everyone is ignoring this problem in favour of global warming which is simply a side effect of the massive increase in the population of humans over the last few centuries.
What is your opinion about this?
As countries develop, birthrates decline. In places where people are in the best positions to be controlled (Europe, Japan) the population growth rates are already below replacement, and the economic issues of having a large unproductive elderly are beginning to surface (this is especially true in Japan).
Over population isn't a
huge problem in the long run (unlike global warming etc) because as the world develops further, birthrates are going to decline, and indeed the population of the earth could reach a peak as early as the 2050s by some measure. On the contrary, the burgeoning elderly population is going to create significant economic challenges in the future (think: social security).
See:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_declineI'm aware of the problems in countries like Japan but that is what immigration is for.
Overall the global population has grown at an enormous rate over the past 2 centuries. China and India contain about 2 billion people between them. That's a lot of potential polluters.
My main point was that global warming is going to increase a lot as the developing nations like China and India become more industrialised. I doubt any measures taken by Europe and North America will do much to stop the growth in CO2 emissions.
Population control globally and the redistribution of populations is the only long term solution to these problems in my opinion.
See:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overpopulation
But non-inhumane methods of population control aren't going to impact the population curve for quite some time; the short term deviation from the projected laissez-faire population curve wouldn't be enough.
China and India are going to be the most important factors in future emissions and likely long term solutions aren't going to work without them, but the emissions are going to be a result of the fact that their populations are already huge; their modernizing so the per capita CO2 emissions are going to rise; but their less developed economies can't accommodate cleaner technology yet. Capping their population wouldn't be enough, you'd need to halt their development.
China is a huge producer of CO2, but its per capita emissions are still much lower than the US (and god know how many other developed countries; although, on the subject of the efficiency it can't afford, China has poor GDP per emission ratios; thus, you stand to gain quite a bit if China can get "cleaner"), so unless you kept the place poor or offed half the population, the emissions have to go up. You can't reasonably depopulate this problem out of existence. It would be interesting to calculate what degree of the rise in emissions in places like China will be due to population growth or modernization; my current guess is that population growth especially in China is going to account for only a small fraction of the total increase.
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